”There is a difference between listening and waiting for your turn to speak.” – Simon Sinek

 

Why I Wasn’t “Loyal” to My Broker

 

I called my broker but was connected to someone I didn’t know. She told me my broker was “no longer with the company.”

“What does that mean?” I asked.

“He’s just not with us anymore.

“So why wasn’t I told?”

“We were just about to notify you.”

That concerned me. I had open trades that needed managing. What if something fell through the cracks?

A few days later, I was visited by the branch manager and a young man who was to be my old broker’s replacement. The manager apologized for not notifying me immediately, explaining that the situation was “difficult and personal,” and then assured me that my account was being tended to properly.

That was half the reason for their visit. The other half was to convince me to keep my money with them.

Investment firms generally prohibit their brokers from trying to take their “book” of clients with them when they move to another firm. But it’s hard to do that when the broker-client relationship is a longstanding and trusted one.

When a broker leaves a brokerage, the house initiates a “retention” protocol that involves routine efforts to persuade the broker’s clients to stay with the firm. But when a departed broker leaves a “book” of “whales,” the protocol is more like a cold war, with each side doing everything they can legally do to grab or retain as many of the big fish as they can.

I knew that. And I suspected that my broker had been legally restrained from contacting me while he was still with his old firm or shortly thereafter, which accounted for my being in the dark. I expected he would contact me soon, and about a week later he did.

But by that time, I had already decided to keep my money with the brokerage.

Why I did that is the subject of this essay.

My broker was a bright person. He knew the markets. He understood the game. And, as a top earner in his office, he had proven himself to be a superb salesman. But what was important to me was that I trusted him to do a good job. And that meant helping me make buy-and-sell decisions based on my insights and my temperament, not on his inclinations or the directions of the firm.

But there was one little thing about him that always irked me. He had a tendency to talk when I wanted him to listen.

I’d call him up to ask a specific question about some of my bonds. His answer would come in a rush of statements replete with data I could not verify and financial terminology I did not completely understand.

When I’d attempt to interrupt him for clarification, he would talk over me. He didn’t do it rudely. Had he been rude, I would have ended the relationship immediately. He seemed to be motivated more by his excitement about the investment. Every so often, I would ask him, politely, to slow down and listen to me. He’d apologize profusely, but it was a habit he couldn’t break. And it was annoying. But I wrote it off as a peccadillo.

I believed then and I still do that in his mind he had my best interests at heart. And since my accounts were growing at the time, he had good reason to feel that way.

But then one day I received a notice saying that I had bought shares of an IPO. It was a digital business that was all promise but no performance. Exactly the kind of company that, had he ever actually listened to me, he would know I would never buy. Why had he done this?

I called him, and he told me that my son, who also had an account with him, had asked him to buy some of the shares for him. It wasn’t easy to get shares of this company’s IPO at the time, but he gave some to my son and he gave some to me. He said he was doing me a favor.

I believed him. I was, after all, one of his bigger clients. If he had a stash of these hard-to-get shares, he’d be smart to distribute them to clients like me. But it bothered me that he had gone ahead, without asking me first, and spent my money on a business whose P/E ratio was about 100 to 1.

For all his many good qualities – and they were numerous – he wasn’t a good listener. And his poor listening skills were a problem for two reasons:

 

* He wasn’t good at teaching me about the technical side of investing because he didn’t listen to my questions.

 

* He never really understood my core investing philosophy – the principles I live by because they have worked so well for me in my wealth-building career.

 

Those thoughts were in the back of my mind when I was visited by the branch manager of the brokerage and the young man – Dominick – who was going to be handling my account “if” I decided to leave it with them.

After the introductions and pleasantries were over, the manager presented Dominick’s credentials, which were solid.

I was a bit worried about his youth. He looked to be in his early to mid thirties. But my worries were diminished almost entirely when he began speaking.

The first thing he said to me was something like, “Mr. Ford, I’ve been studying your accounts and their history. I know where your portfolio is right now. What I’d like to know is where you want to go with it. And what else I could do to make you happy with me as your broker.”

Wow! That was a very good opening. He was young but he was saying all the right things. He had the initiative to have studied my accounts before we met and he had no intention of telling me what to do. He wanted me to tell him how he could help me.

This, in my view, is the right relationship to have with your broker. You are the owner of your wealth, not your broker. You pay him. He works for you. You are his boss. He should treat you like his boss.

You may be thinking, “Gee, I don’t want to be my broker’s boss. He’s the guy that knows about investing. And he has much bigger clients than me. I certainly don’t want to insult him by bossing him around when he knows and I know that I don’t know what I’m doing.”

If that’s the way you think about your broker, you need to change things. And fast.

It doesn’t matter that you know less about stocks and bonds than he does. It doesn’t matter that you feel like a small fry because you don’t have 10 million bucks in your account. It doesn’t matter if all your questions feel “stupid.” If you aren’t the boss of that relationship, you are in trouble.

In the weeks that followed, Dominick was in touch with me at least twice a week.

We reviewed my entire portfolio, made key changes to restructure it in accordance with my asset allocation preferences, and agreed on buying and selling parameters so we could work more fluidly in the future.

As the months passed, I felt better and better about my decision to say goodbye to my old broker and work with Dominick. It wasn’t that I felt Dominick had better insights or even better intentions than my old broker. It was that he was going to let me be in charge of how my money was being invested.

It may seem strange, but after so many years of being in the financial information business, I still felt insecure about investing. I felt confident in my core ideas. I was definitely a conservative investor. But because I did not have the detailed understanding of specific investment strategies that brokers have, I often found myself deferring to them when my gut was saying “Don’t do it.”

If I, as someone that’s been in and around the financial industry for 30 years, can feel that way, I can only imagine the pressure someone else – who hasn’t had my experience or success – must feel when being pitched.

If you’ve ever felt like that, this story was for you. And the takeaway is this: You have to be in charge of your relationship with anyone that is handling your money. That includes stock and bond brokers, life insurance agents, financial advisors, estate planners, and even your tax attorney.

Don’t allow them to intimidate you. Don’t feel embarrassed when you don’t understand what they are saying. Say, “Stop right there and say that again, but without all the gibberish. If you aren’t able to explain it to me clearly, I will have to find someone who can.”

And if that’s not enough, remind them that you are the person paying their fees. You are the boss. Their job is not just to give you good advice and execute your wishes, but to make sure that they understand your preferences and follow them. And that they never, ever make you feel like you have to shut up and defer to them.

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The Captivating Impressionism of Giorgio Morandi 

The culture and business of art is largely chauvinistic. Ninety-eight percent of the art that is made in one country stays in one country.

But there is a class of art that crosses borders: the work of artists that – for a variety of reasons – become known and coveted all over the world.

This is especially true for Modern art – the output of artists from the late 19th to the third quarter of the 20th century. Walk into any mid-sized museum of art in America and you will see, in the Modern section, the works of artists you will recognize from the US, but also from France, Holland, Belgium, Spain, Germany, and England.

But there is one European country that is sparsely represented: Italy. I don’t know why that is. But until I began to visit Rome’s Museum of Modern Art about 20 years ago, I had no idea how many fantastic Italian Modernists there are – every bit as great as their European and American contemporaries.

I’ve been back there almost every year, and I always have the same thought: How come I never heard of these artists? I mean, everyone knows Giorgio De Chirico and Amedeo Modigliani. But what other Italian Modern masters can you name?

De Chirico and Modigliani are way out of my price range. But even the less famous but no less brilliant Italian Modern masters are highly coveted and hard to come by.

Two of those I most coveted were Gisberto Ceracchini (1899-1982) and Giorgio Morandi (1890-1964). About 20 years ago, I could have bought a good-sized painting by either one of them for less than $50,000. About 15 years ago, I came across a fantastic Ceracchini in a Roman gallery and got it for a bit more than that. And I’m glad I did. Not only do I get to look at it every day, its value has increased by many multiples.

But Morandi was the Italian Modernist I coveted the most.

Morandi was an Impressionist with a minimalist approach to his subjects, which were primarily still lifes. As Andy Battaglia said in a recent issue of ARTnews:

“His still lifes of bottles arranged against neutral backgrounds – his favored mode of expression – strike some as boring but others as boundless in their charms. They’re the kind of paintings you can look at for ages while regaling in their quietude. And they’re the kind of paintings that make the pleasure of doing so feel like you’re looking at painting itself – the act, the result, the mysterious means of communication that can exude from a canvas.”

When I first spotted Morandi about 20 years ago, I could have afforded to buy one of his paintings. I don’t usually rue what might have been. But in this case, every time I see one of his still lifes go on auction, I think, “Damn! I could have had that in my living room.”

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“Not voting is not a protest. It is a surrender.” – Keith Ellison

 

How to Vote If You Consider Yourself an Independent Thinker 

Most of the people I know have locked down on certain slogans that parade themselves not just as ideas but as full-blown ideological philosophies. Make America Great Again, Systemic Racism, Right to Life, Right of Choice, Black Lives Matter, the Green New Deal. And they vote on their adherence to those slogans. For them, the decision between Trump and Biden is black and white.

The pollsters know who those people are. They represent the vast majority of the population. But it will be the independently minded voters that will likely determine this election.

From The Washington Post:  Olivia Troye, who was part of the coronavirus task force, said recently that in her view the president has a “flat out disregard for human life.” Trump’s main concern, she said, “was the economy and his reelection.”

We weren’t at those meetings, so we have no way to judge her first characterization. But let’s assume that she’s right about the second and the third. (I’ve seen enough of his public statements to believe it.)

I am good with his concern for the economy. I think that should be our president’s primary concern in this regard. (We can talk more about this later.)

As to his single-minded desire to get reelected, why should that surprise anyone? For Trump, the political experience is a game of winning. That’s how he approached business. That’s how he frames all his ideas, appeals, and promises. In the entire population of our elected representatives, I can think of only one in my lifetime that was different. Ron Paul.

The nature of politics is about power. And the means to power is getting elected. People that want to become politicians want to play that game, which means they are essentially untrustworthy.

Which means: We shouldn’t vote for politicians based on what they say, but what they do. That’s a statement most people would ordinarily agree to.

But here’s the problem: That’s too difficult for most people. We are too busy with our quotidian lives to pay attention to the dozens of issues that are researched, discussed, and debated every day in the oval office or in the halls of the Senate or the Congress. And that is just at the national level. State and local government is just as complicated.

Since we can’t possibly understand particular issues well enough to make informed decisions about them, we do the next best thing. We elect politicians to represent our general sentiments about what kind of world we want to live in and give them the responsibility to do all the analysis and thinking.

Of course, they don’t have time for that sort of work either. They are too busy meeting with their supporters, raising funds, and campaigning to do any serious analysis of the problems. Studies have shown that most senators and representatives read only the equivalent of executive reports on the bills they are responsible for deciding.

That’s why, for me, the rule is:

* Assume that all politicians are not only willing to misrepresent their thoughts and feelings, but are actually very good at it.

* Assume that when it’s election time, politicians have no problem with prevarication, misdirection, and, if needed, outright lying about what they actually believe, think, and do.

* Pay zero attention to what candidates say during their campaigns.

* Spend what little time you have to finding out what they have actually done in the past. What actions they took in office. And how those actions tie into your idea of the world you want to live in.

If I were to decide between Trump and Biden based on what they are saying right now, I’d stay home and watch old movies on Election Day. Half of what they are saying I don’t believe because it contradicts what they actually did when they had power. And the other half sounds either senile or insane. (Take your pick.)

But when I look at what they have done – what Trump has done as president and Biden did over 47 years as a politician – the choice between them is not so very clear. To make my decision, I’m going to have to spend some time researching what they’ve actually done and then think about it.

 

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My father was a bright, well-educated college professor with a clever, sophisticated sense of humor. In his seventies, though, I noticed that his wit degraded noticeably. He delighted in what we, his children, called “Old Man Humor.”

I just had my 70th birthday and a friend, a coeval, sent me the following. I thought they were all very funny, but I am pretty sure that my children wouldn’t think so. And I know K wouldn’t. (I just asked her.)

Is this a condition that can be reversed? Or is it nature’s way of making it easier for your children to accept your departure when the time comes?

 

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 “Life is long. Success is difficult. Passion is fleeting.” – Michael Masterson

 

Why “Profiting From Your Passion” May Be a Big Mistake

When I first retired at 39, I bought a half-interest in an art gallery, believing it would be the perfect hobby-like, retirement occupation. I pictured myself sitting amidst beautiful paintings, reading interesting books, and chatting with art lovers about Karel Appel and Jules Pascin.

Instead, I was thrust into a high-pressure selling situation. One in which my partner expected me to press friends and former colleagues into buying art. After six or seven months, I had to admit to myself that this experiment in mixing my love of art with the desire to profit from it had failed. So, I got out. It cost me a considerable sum of money, but it was worth it.

What I learned was that the job of running a business – even a “passion business” – is first and foremost about selling. And selling is always hard work.

It’s also mandatory and therefore ceaseless. If you are not continually finding new customers and reselling old ones, your business will shrink. A shrinking business is, of course, a dying business, and disappointing. But the death of a business you believed to be your life’s calling is downright depressing.

My fantasies about being a gallerist were shattered by the reality of having to constantly sell art. Not just to strangers, but to everyone I knew (one of my partner’s success secrets). All the things I loved about collecting art (as a hobby) were ground into mundanities by the application of them towards profit.

After a brief respite, I abandoned that retirement and went back into the business I had been in previously. But this time I told myself that I would change my idea about being in that business. It would no longer be about creating maximum profits, but about building a profitable business that I could be proud of.

Most of what I did on a day-to-day basis was the same. But I became more selective about the quality of our products and the satisfaction of our customers and less concerned about the bottom line.

The result was a surprisingly happy ending. I was able to enjoy the hours I spent working and – to my surprise – the business grew far beyond what it had been.

I can’t say for sure exactly why this happened. But I think one of the factors was that in my second go-round, I was constantly pushing to make all the Ps that make up a business better – the products, the protocols, the procedures, and the people. And my primary criterion for better wasn’t profit but something more personal. Something like, “If I make this change, will this improve the business in some way that I will like it more? In some way that will make me feel better about it? Prouder of what it is and is becoming?”

I don’t mean to imply this was a come-to-Jesus moment, that I returned to work as an entirely different person. It was much more subtle than that. I was still mostly about “ready, fire, aim.” I was still very much a pusher and a grower. And I still kept my eye on the bottom line. But I was no longer obsessed with growing profit. It was important to me – actually, mandatory. But I didn’t actually care whether we made 20%, 10%, or even 5%. I was secretly more interested in making the business into something that felt good to me.

The psychologist Jordan Peterson said that parents should raise their children to become the sort of adults they themselves would like and admire. This is sort of what I was doing – nudging the business along as it grew to become something I could like and admire.

I suppose you could say that with the gallery I tried and failed to convert my passion into profit, and with the business, I found a way to convert my profits into a passion.

For the Young and Still Hopeful…

A word to my younger readers: I’m not saying it’s impossible to turn your passion into a successful career.

I’m saying that, before you commit, you should think seriously about the fact that in trying to make a career of your passion there are four possible outcomes:

* You succeed and are happy in your success.

* You succeed but discover that success kills your passion.

* You fail and are emotionally defeated by your failure.

* You fail and are fine with your failing and move on to a happy life.

The most common advice you’ll hear from successful people about charting your career is, “Don’t walk towards it. Chase your dreams. Don’t listen to anyone that doubts you or warns you about the risk. Fly without a net.”

This advice is utter foolishness. It will not help you succeed. Nor will it make you happier if you do succeed.

Remember, generally speaking the people giving this advice are celebrities – the one in a thousand that were good enough and lucky enough to make a success of their passion. And they are usually dispensing this advice at award shows – where they are enthralled with their own wonderful selves.

Any parent or person of authority that would give such advice is either stupid or selfish or, more likely, both.

Here’s my advice: If you are young and have a particular passion, go for it. But do so only after you have mentally prepared yourself for the four possibilities listed above.

Start by identifying the psychological rewards your passion brings you now. Be honest and specific. Excitement? Engagement? Admiration? Validation?

Imagine yourself working relentlessly towards your goal, ignoring everything else in your life – friendships, family, marriage, even a bit of your self-respect. Would you be okay with that?

If your answer, “YES!,” imagine yourself 10 or 20 years into the future. You’ve achieved your goal. You have turned your passion into a profitable career. You have the status. You have the money. You have the validation you were looking for. But you’ve lost the excitement and the engagement. The work doesn’t fire you up anymore. Would you be okay with that?

Imagine, too, another scenario. Imagine that, after several of giving your all to making your passion profitable, you come to the realization that the prospects of success are approaching zero. Imagine that you look around and find an opportunity to start a different career – one that would almost certainly be profitable but for which you have no passion. Would you be able to make that change? Maybe with the idea that you could you put aside several hours a week to continue practicing your passion as a hobby? Would you be able to do that? Without second-guessing yourself?

Now imagine that while you are building your current career – a career that you had no passion for when you started – you begin to treat it like you are passionate about it. Imagine what you would do to convert it into something that would give you those feelings of excitement and engagement and admiration and validation that you now are hoping to get from your passion. How would that feel?

Imagine that after enjoying a profitable career that you found a passion for, and continuing to enjoy your current passion as a hobby, you retired from the first and spent your golden years engaged fully in the other.

How does that feel?

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The Big Interrupter 

 

Believe nothing you hear, and only one half that you see.” – Edgar Allan Poe

 

It’s generally agreed that Trump was uncontrolled in his debate against Biden and that he interrupted Biden constantly….

That’s certainly how I felt…

It’s common knowledge that our biases affect our particular judgements. They color our perceptions, not only in how we come to conclusions about general facts and phenomena, but also in how we interpret very particular facts and events.

One place where this is apparent is in the political arena. For as long as I’ve been watching political debates, I’ve noticed the tendency of watchers to view the same debate differently – with each group tending to downgrade the performance of the candidate of the opposing party and upgrade the performance of the candidate of their own.

Last week, at the first dinner party K and I have attended in months, the conversation turned to Trump. K, L, and G were recounting the many ways they see Trump as a vile person, as well as their hatred for the man. Actual hatred. For a man they’ve never met.

That didn’t surprise me. Nor did it outrage me. There is a great deal about Trump that I find interesting, but virtually nothing I actually like. I could never be friends with him. I’d never trust him as a business partner. But I do think he’s done some good for the country. Lowering taxes, reducing regulations, reforming the criminal justice systems, etc. His trade policy, on the other hand, is a disaster.

In response to their vitriol, I wanted to say: “Do you see how insane you are? That your hate for Trump has made you incapable of having rational thoughts when his name is invoked?”

Of course, I knew I couldn’t say that. But a moment later, when the conversation turned to the presidential debate, I realized I had an opportunity to say some version of that.

“He’s such a bully,” G said. “He interrupted Biden non-stop. He must have interrupted him a hundred times.”

The others agreed.

Coincidentally, I had just read something on that issue that very morning. Rather than repeat what I had read, which would have been dismissed summarily, I decided to ask them a question.

“We all agree that Trump interrupted Biden a lot,” I said. “But we know that Biden interrupted Trump, too. My question is:  What was the ratio? How many times did each candidate interrupt the other?”

L: “I don’t know. Maybe 40 Trump to 10 Biden.”

G: “It was more like 60 to 5.”

K: “It must have been 100 to 1.”

Let’s look at the actual numbers:

The Washington Post counted 71 interruptions for Trump and 22 for Biden, cleverly calling Trump the “Interrupter-in-Chief.”

Fox News counted 71 for Trump and 49 for Biden, reporting the RNC’s declaration of Trump as winner of the debate and Biden as being “too weak.”

I asked Amaru, our number-one researcher, to take a look and do his own count, based on two different definitions of “interrupt.”

  1. Interruptions that happened only when one candidate was speaking during the time he was given for “uninterrupted speech.” Amaru counted 55 by Trump and 31 by Biden.
  2. Any and all interruptions. This time, Amaru counted 84 by Trump and 69 by Biden.

What’s going on here?

It looks like The Washington Post and Fox were using two different definitions. And each definition was designed to produce a different outcome.

Here’s my takeaway – and I’ll keep it simple…

Facts are not always as factual as they might seem. They depend on the questions, assumptions, and definitions that are made while gathering them. This is true of every set of facts in every field of study. (I’ve been publishing information on health for 40 years, and I can tell you, with confidence, that many of the facts we take as scientific and therefore true are not facts at all, but consciously calculated findings meant to arrive at a desired conclusion.)

I can’t say exactly what criteria WaPo and Fox used to arrive at their very different numbers. But I can tell you that it didn’t take much – in our own little experiment – to dramatically affect our numbers.

So be skeptical of facts – especially when they are used to advance a political or commercial agenda. Keep an open mind. But stay skeptical. And be especially skeptical when the facts support the narrative of your choice.

As Amaru said, “If my mom, the person I trusted most in the world, told me that the stars had all turned into bright red and green sparkles, I’d still want to go out and take a look.”

 

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Big News About COVID-19 Testing That You Probably Don’t Know 

According to the October 16 edition of The Washington Post, new coronavirus cases are spiking in the United States and Europe, with 13 states reporting record-setting numbers of infections over the past week. That sounds scary. But, of course, what they didn’t report is the data on the fact that matters: deaths.

And the fact is that deaths from the virus have NOT increased since the beginning of September – either worldwide or in the US.

Here’s something else they should be reporting on…

The conventional wisdom regarding testing is that if you get a positive result, you have the virus, you are contagious, and you should self-quarantine until you are tested again to determine that the infection is gone.

But according to a study reported on in the NYT (of all places) on August 29, and then reported again by OANN, that may not be true.

In fact, it’s possible that 85% to 90% of the tests done this year in the US were faulty.

The problem was with the PCR test – the one we are all familiar with. The swab up the nose. If you’ve ever had this test, you know that the result comes back as positive or negative. Simple and clear.

But it’s not simple. Or clear.

Here’s why: Virologists have always known that the danger of both getting sick from a virus and also spreading it to others depends not on if you have the virus in you, but on how much of it you have.

I’ve suggested this in several past issues of the blog. (Check them out HERE, HERE, and HERE.) But since no one else was talking about it, I figured it was unimportant or I was wrong.

But it looks like I was right. And it is important.

It means that the protocol of quarantining everyone that tested positive was wrong. We should have quarantined only those whose level was above a certain threshold. We didn’t because we were operating on the assumption that any amount of coronavirus in a person was life-threatening. We weren’t measuring levels of the virus. It was a yes-no test, with a mistake built into it.

The mistake was this. Labs typically amplify the samples they get in order to reach a level where they can be detected. Standard practice is 30 amplifications. But in 85% to 90% of the PCR tests done this year, the amplifications were at 40, not 30. Which means it’s possible that 85% to 90% of people that tested positive were neither contagious nor at risk of getting severely sick and dying.

Here’s a link to the NYT article.

 

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“Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don’t resist them; that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.” – Lao Tzu

 

Advice to “Shark Tank” Wannabes:

Don’t Fret the Business Plan… Obey the Market 

“Shark Tank,” the enormously popular TV show, is about entrepreneurs vying for money to fund their ideas. They win or lose based on their business plans and how well they present them.

It’s a bogus concept. Anyone that knows anything about how venture capital works, including the celebrity entrepreneurs that act as judges on the show, knows it.

What’s BS about the show is the focus on the business plan itself. Business plans matter, but not nearly as much as most people think. And when it comes to start-up ventures, the initial plans matter even less.

That’s because in the real world nothing is static. The economy is in a continuous state of change. Industries are forever shrinking and/or expanding. Supply and demand changes on a daily basis. And this is to say nothing of the infinitely complex and unpredictable nature of the human beings that comprise the business experience: the managers, the employees, the vendors, and the customers.

Business plans, however, are by nature static. They are based on facts and assumptions that are true for some limited period of time. Bigger plans – those that contain more facts and assumptions – may have the appearance of being more reliable, because they take so much more into consideration. But in fact, they are less stable – precisely because they contain more parts that are likely to move.

I’ve been involved in more business start-ups than I can count. When I think about the best of them, I can’t think of a single one that succeeded by faithfully following its original plan.

On the contrary, the most successful businesses I’ve been involved with at inception – the ones that grew to into thriving, enduring, multimillion-dollar companies – were all started with plans that were sketchy. Literally sketchy – with the core ideas recorded as sketches on scraps of papers.

The simple truth about entrepreneurship is this: It’s much more about the ingenuity, tenaciousness, and flexibility of the founders than about their ability to make perfect plans.

And that is why, in the past 20 years, the average business plan required by venture capitalists has shrunk from 75-100 pages to 15-25. Angel investors today understand that successful start-ups are not those that begin with amazing plans but with amazing people that have the ability to adapt quickly and enthusiastically to changing market conditions.

Do you recognize the name David H. McConnell?

He began his career as a traveling salesman. He sold books. Over several years of trying out a variety of whimsical sales pitches, he discovered that he could increase sales by giving potential customers perfume samples as a bonus.

I know! It doesn’t make sense. But the gimmick worked. It worked so well that he trashed his plan for building a bookselling empire and replaced it with a plan to sell perfumes.

He hired 13 female sales representatives (mostly former customers) and set them to work. A decade later, he had a sales staff of 5000. His business then was called the California Perfume Company.

Later, he changed the name to Avon.

The Takeaway: You don’t need a perfect plan to start a great business. You need a plan that is flexible enough to guide you through all the changes you’ll be making as your business grows.

Recommendation: If this idea feels important to you, get yourself a copy of Ready, Fire, Aim

 

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An email from TN:

Thanks again for your feedback. You gave me a HARD NO on part of it… but in a world of grays,  a black and white answer is a huge relief.

 

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“War does not determine who is right – only who is left.” – Bertrand Russell

 

Baby Boomer Narcissism: It’s All About Us, and Our Game Is War 

On Zoom calls, my colleague Bill Bonner and I sometimes talk briefly about current events. I told him my view is that the COVID lockdown is another symptom of baby boomer narcissism. Ever since we came into the world, in droves, the American economy has been all about us.

Bill tends to be a deeper thinker than I am. So, when he began writing about this issue, he did so from a more interesting perspective. He framed his exploration as “the sellout of America by its geriatric elite.”

By geriatric elite, he means old white geezers like Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Mitch McConnell. But he also includes himself. And presumably me. Basically, he’s talking about the millions of baby boomers that have benefitted from the government’s actions and inactions over the last 50 years.

He reminds us that, despite our early flirtation with peace and freedom, we became the generation that chose war as our principal vehicle for improving the world.

First, we launched the war against poverty. Then we began the war against drugs. Then we threw ourselves into a war against terrorism. And now we are in a war against the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, we’ve kept the conventional wars going. First with Vietnam (1965-1975). Then with the Persian Gulf (1990-1991). Then with Afghanistan (2001-Present). And then with Iraq (2003-Present).

He didn’t say, although he’s said it before, that each of these wars cost us a lot of money.

 

The Cost to Us of Recent Wars 

* Vietnam: $880 billion (adjusted for inflation 2020)

* Persian Gulf: $121 billion (adjusted for inflation 2020)

* Afghanistan: $925 billion

* Iraq: $1 trillion

 

All told, they’ve cost American taxpayers more than $30 trillion. That came mostly from the middle class and ended up in the pockets of baby boomers in government and private industry.

But the war that has cost us the most, Bill says, is the war against the dollar.

“After Federal Reserve chief Paul Volcker ‘rescued’ the system in 1980,” he says, “the resulting fake dollar and fake interest rates produced fake wealth on a scale the country had never seen before. The Dow rose 29 times.

“But the wealth was heavily concentrated in the richest zip codes. The rest of the country got, relatively, poorer…. Wealth migrated from the towns where people made things to the towns where people just made money.

“The Fed launched five major assaults. There were three waves of interest rate cuts – 1989-1992, 2000-2003, and 2007-2008 – along with a $3.6 trillion heavy artillery barrage after the crisis of 2008-2009 and $3 trillion more to fight the COVID Shutdown.

“Almost every penny went to the richest, oldest 10% of the country… leaving 90% of the population behind.

“This COVID Shutdown – another attempt to protect the old at the expense of the young – forced much of the economy onto the internet, leaving behind millions of face-to-face, hand-to-mouth workers.

“Waiters, parking lot attendants, landlords in some areas, clowns in Disney World, strippers in Las Vegas… whole industries were decimated…. Meanwhile, the Boomer Elite… bless their hearts…  are living high on the hog.

“Maybe we weren’t as lucky as The Donald or The Nancy, but we can’t complain.

“We went to college. We avoided the assembly lines and shop floors. We punched a keyboard, not a time clock…. And come the coronavirus… we could work from home.

“And we made investments… partaking of the great promise of degenerate American capitalism – that the government would make sure we didn’t lose money.

“Three times this century, the markets have tried to correct… and three times, the Federal Reserve has fought back, making sure the wealthy elite retained its ill-gotten gains.”

Not to worry if you are a baby boomer, Bill says. No matter how bad things get in the coming years (and they will surely get bad at some point), we of the Geezer Elite will be safe and unscathed.

“We can leave behind the whole complex of crime, poverty, job losses, politics, and social disruption… and live far enough away from the big city, where it is safe, beautiful, and pleasant… but still with enough bandwidth to let us ‘visit’ with our children and grandchildren… and carry on with the rump ends of our careers.”

File this under: War

Wars are always expensive – in deaths, in property destruction, and in dollars. And with very few exceptions, they never achieve their stated goals. Since President Eisenhower warned us against the military industrial complex, we’ve fought and lost wars on foreign soil that benefitted only the stakeholders of that industry. These wars cost us trillions of dollars and tens of thousands of lives. But our high-minded wars against drugs and poverty have cost us even more.

Yet none of that has diminished our attachment to war. We continue to declare new wars almost every year. This most recent war against COVID and the continued wars against fossil fuels are costing us trillions. But the biggest war of all is our secret war against the stability of our currency. We are devaluing it, by a trillion dollars, every 60 to 90 days. We are standing at the precipice of national bankruptcy – and nobody, not the media or our elected politicians from either side of the aisle, seemed the least bit concerned about it.

Protect yourself. This war is coming to you.

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