I read his book real fast and discovered that the great Ray Dalio and I think the same way about one thing

You’d think that someone who’s written more than a dozen books on entrepreneurship, wealth building, and investing would himself be a regular consumer of such books, if only to keep up with his trade.

I don’t do that. In fact, since I challenged myself to read at least 50 books a year 25 years ago, fewer than 10% of them were of that kind. I have two excuses, one legitimate and one not.

My official excuse is that I have a method of speed-reading “practical” (i.e., non-fiction and non-philosophical) books that precludes me from calling what I do “reading.” It’s a system I’ve developed over the years that increases my reading speed from my standard (post-dyslexic, still-present ADD) rate of 200 words a minute to about 1,500 words a minute, which means digesting a book of 300 to 350 pages and 90,000 words in about four hours.

That’s not reading. It’s more akin to skimming. I dignify the practice by calling it “purposeful reading,” by which I mean seeking out nuggets of information and/or ideas that are currently useful to me, and ignoring everything else.

Today’s bit on the subject of wealth building is taken from a book I read “purposefully” last week. Ray Dalio’s Principles: Life & Work.

Ray Dalio is my age and, like me, he grew up on Long Island and began starting businesses when he was in his early teens. Unlike me, his interest was always in the financial markets, and so he had the advantage (and disadvantage) of limiting his business growth to one industry, which he eventually dominated through persistence, intelligence, and hard work.

As founder and top dog at Bridgewater Associates, a hedge fund that manages nearly $200 billion, he’s become not only personally super-rich, he has become a respected media pundit on the economy and the markets. (A glance at his track record will tell you he’s been on the money now for more than 40 years.)

There are things I don’t like about Dalio. I don’t like his politics, and I don’t agree with much of what he says about geopolitics either. But he certainly knows a lot more about making money in the stock market than I do. Or at least he’s done a lot better than I have by persuading or otherwise convincing super-wealthy people and financial funds to trust him with their millions.

Hey, sometimes you gotta give a self-made wealthy man his due. And I give it up to Dalio. He’s probably 100 times richer than me!

And I suppose that’s why, when I saw his book on a bookshelf in my house in Nicaragua (no idea how it got there), I picked it up and gave it a quickie read.

In Principles: Life and Work, Dalio presents what he calls the “guiding principles” that he used to create Bridgewater’s enormous growth and his personal success.

Because I am not fond of his social, political, and philosophical views (although I suspect he presents them primarily to be treated well by the Legacy Media), I reviewed the “principles” he laid out in the book with an arm’s length of critical distance.

I want to focus on one of those principles here, which I selected for three good reasons:

* It is a mental technique that Dalio used to develop the other techniques and strategies he recommends in his book.

* It’s a way of thinking that I’m familiar with because I’ve used it habitually in my career.

* It ties nicely into The Blind Watchmaker, a book by the great Richard Dawkins that I read (and reviewed here) recently, and is a key concept in a topic I’ve written about (and will continue to write about) in this blog: the mind as a self-learning machine.

The Mind as a Self-Learning Machine 

I don’t know whether this is common to most people, but I’ve always felt my mind was a tool that had could be constantly expanded and improved.

From the moment I began to think about thinking, which was as early as I can remember thinking, I was acutely aware of the fact that there were things I could figure out and problems I could solve more quickly and with greater ease than others. These were mental challenges that involved conceptualization and engineering: putting bits and pieces together to form a coherent whole.

I was proud of my ability to do that, but I’m happy to say that I never assumed it would be available to me indefinitely or would automatically improve as I got older. On the contrary, I always had the sense that if I did not continually and continuously use and sharpen those skills, they would eventually get rusty and less sharp.

In the same vein, in those early years, I was also aware – although perhaps not as acutely – that there were things that I could not do quickly and easily. Routine things such as reading. (As I’ve said, I was and still am a bit dyslexic.) And paying attention at school. (I had and still have attention deficit disorder.) Happily, I never believed that these shortcomings could limit me in any serious way. I believed I could eventually overcome them or at least compensate for them if I put in the work and time.

How to Turn Your Brain into an AI Machine 

In retrospect, I see that I saw my mind as not just a box containing a fixed number of tools, but as a machine akin to a computer that could figure out solutions to problems through a series of simple, yes-and-no mental transactions, and could become better at learning how to think about something new by using thought processes that had helped me find solutions to problems in the past.

In Principles, Dalio says that he had a similar way of looking at the problems and challenges he faced in overcoming his early failures in business and eventually building Bridgewater to what it is today.

He says he believes that a key element in his success was in not being intimidated by difficult problems or new challenges, but in reminding himself that the brain he was using was a better one than the brain he had earlier in his life, and that to move ahead, regardless of what he was facing, was a matter of installing new circuits when he could find them and inputting new facts and ideas on a constant and continual basis.

He recommends this as a practice for anyone reading the book. He also says that it is of the upmost importance to recognize that if you are running into roadblocks, they can be bypassed or overcome by looking around for more inputs – other facts, other opinions, and other ways of thinking about your problems and challenges.

Passing Roadblocks & Jumping Hurdles

I see this as a BIG strategy for success. But I know that for many people, including many very smart and ambitious people I’ve worked with over the years, it is a secret – i.e., a strategy that is not visible to them.

And that is often because of the success they enjoyed early in their careers – the success that came from using the tools that were already in the box they came with. Since these tools were so good at getting them from A to B, or even from B to C, they assumed they could get them from C to D.

But, as they climbed the corporate or entrepreneurial mountain, these tools were no longer useful. Some, in fact, could be detrimental.

I don’t have the time (and you don’t have the time) to get into too many examples here of how this happens all the time in every sort of business (and, really, in every sort of challenging human endeavor, as I’m sure Dalio himself would agree). I’ll give you one example and hope that suffices until I write about this again.

One of my partners in business has a gift for understanding the limits of personal integrity and business ethics. He spent the first half of his career in an industry where cutting the throats of one’s competitors was not just the game but the fun of the game, too.

When he came into my industry, he brought that mindset with him. And it served him well in hiring untrustworthy people and in avoiding business relationships with untrusty partners.

But it stymied him in growing his business beyond the $10 million range. When he reached that point, his instinctive reaction to anything that wasn’t going well was to look for the employee, the partner, or the competitor that was secretly doing him wrong.

This was bad for two reasons that were obvious to me.

His natural distrust of his employees made him susceptible to micromanaging their activities, which made those employees reluctant to be innovative or even to suggest doing things differently. And this, in turn, led to a corporate culture that was self-conscious, averse to innovation, and, in some cases, political.

The same mindset made it difficult – almost impossible – for him to go into joint ventures and marketing agreements with his competitors. Even when I could show him the clear win-win benefits to such relationships, he was incapable of opening his mind to them.

Now you can divine other diagnoses for his behavior, but to me it was grounded in the way he thought about his own mind. He could not accept the possibility that to achieve the growth he needed, he had to first be open to the possibility that the mental tools he had were no longer sufficient to do the job he wanted to do.

I could write a hundred more pages on this particular problem, this particular way of limiting one’s business potential and possibilities by being reluctant to inputting new facts, ideas, and even circuitry as the business or enterprise grows.

But I’ll leave it at that for the moment. If you suspect you might do better and accomplish more by considering this, you probably can.

How Every Decision Can Make You Richer (or Poorer) 

This is an essay I wrote that was published on Dec. 19 by DIY Wealth – an online business that provides guidance on entrepreneurship, investing, and other aspects of building wealth. (Disclosure: I am an investor in that business.)

It starts like this:

You go to lunch with a colleague. Everything is good. When the waiter puts the bill on the table, the total is $26.

Do you pick it up? Do you wait and hope he does? Or do you suggest you split it?

On the surface, this is a minor decision. But in truth, it is one of a million chances you’ve had, have, and will have to become wealthier.

A cheapskate might look at it this way:

* If we split the bill, I’ll be $13 poorer.

* If I can get him to pay it, I’ll be $26 richer.

* If I pay the whole bill, I’ll be $26 poorer.

To the cheapskate, the best decision is obvious. So when the check arrives, he gets up to “go the bathroom,” hoping he’ll be $13 richer when he returns.

But I have a different view. For wealth building, like quantum mechanics, often operates according to laws that seem contrary to what is “obvious.”

Click here to read the rest of the essay.

Funding Your Retirement: 

How Safe Should You Be?

Mr. Money Mustache is someone I read now and then. His thing is retiring early. He himself retired when he was very young. I think he was in his late 20s, with a modest net worth. And he’s been writing about his experiences and his philosophy of early retirement ever since.

I don’t subscribe to his particular version of how little one needs to quit one’s day job. But I do believe that many of his insights, including the irrational fear many people (including yours truly) have about how much you need to retire are very solid.

In his latest newsletter, he talks about that. Click here. 

The End of the “Crypto Winter”? 

Bitcoin is down about 70% from its November highs. And Ethereum has dropped 80% from its peak to its bottom. I’ve said in past posts that I’ve always been skeptical of the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency market. But some crypto analysts are still optimistic. If you are worried about your cryptos and want a reason to hold on, click here for an argument from Ian King, editor of Strategic Fortunes, that predicts a comeback.

What’s Behind the Stock and Bond Market Sell-Off? 
The stock market, so strong just months ago, seems to be collapsing. Bond markets are down, too, from some of the highest levels ever recorded. How did they get so high in the first place? Bill Bonner provides a short, elegant explanation. Click here.
Investment Potential in China

If you’re worried about the US stock market and are considering foreign markets as a hedge, you will be interested in a recent recommendation by Alex Green, Investment Director of The Oxford Club. He’s talking China.

Here are some of his reasons:

* China is the world’s second-largest economy. It grew at an average annual rate of more than 9% from 1989 to 2022, and may overtake the US as the world’s largest as soon as 2030.

* Nearly 30% of global manufacturing happens in China. Eighteen of the world’s largest companies are headquartered there.

* It has a growing affluent class, with 5.3 million millionaires, the second-most behind the US. Its middle class is estimated at more than 400 million people.

And, says Alex, the Templeton Dragon Fund (NYSE: TDF) is a good way to play it.

A Change of Plans 

Two years ago, I got clearance from my town to tear down my current office space in Delray Beach, an 11,000-square-foot storage building, and replace it with a 40,000-square-foot Class-A office building. The plan was to rent it to one or several of my businesses. That has been a very good investing strategy since I started building businesses 40 years ago.

Then the pandemic hit. Which brought on remote working. Which felt like it was going to be at least partially permanent. Which sated my appetite for acquiring more office space since I wouldn’t be needing more, even if the businesses continued to grow. So, I put the project on hold.

The same thing happened with the office buildings my partners and I have in Baltimore and London and Paris and other cities. The pandemic made us realize that the old model of centralized office locations, and the bedroom suburbs they spawned, may continue to exist, but as fractions of their former selves.

Notwithstanding the recent uptick from the bottoms hit early last year, I’m not bullish on office space right now. In Delray Beach or elsewhere.

The Market Is Foundering. What to Do?

By some metrics, this has been the worst year in the stock market since the Great Depression.

The larger indexes are down around 20%, and many tech stocks have lost 50% to 80% of their start-of-the year values.

What to do?

You can sell your stocks, take the loss, and put your money in cash. And then try to figure out when to get back into equities. The problem with cash, of course, is that it is currently losing 0.75% of its value every month – and that will increase if inflation pressures continue.

You could put your money in gold. The value of gold (and most other precious metals) historically keeps pace with inflation. In fact, gold is trading today at about $1,840 an ounce, which is about 8% higher than it was in January.

If you already have gold and enough cash to cover emergencies, you might want to look at what sort of stocks you are holding. If your portfolio includes what I call Legacy stocks (e.g., Nestles, Coca Cola, IBM), you can expect that their prices will, like gold, keep up with inflation. That’s because companies like these have the ability to gradually increase their prices as their costs go up.

If you have lots of tech stocks, you might want to ask yourself if you think the companies they represent will still be around if we enter into a recession. Most of the tech stocks I own (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta) are big enough to recover from their currently discounted prices. So I may be buying more of them. If the tech stocks you own are smaller and less certain to survive a recession, you may want to think about dumping them.

If your portfolio is made up of, say, 10% smaller tech stocks, 50% to 60% Legacy stocks, and 30% to 40% of those world-dominating tech companies, you might want to consider doing what I’m doing: absolutely nothing.

In any case, keep these two facts in mind:

* About once a decade, the stock market experiences a downturn of 20% to 30%. That’s what we are seeing now.

* Since the stock market was created over 100 years ago, its overall value has been a one-way ride. Up about 8% to 10% a year, depending on how you measure it.

What are stock splits? Why are they done? 

Last month, Shopify announced plans for a 10-for-1 stock split. This after many other recent stock splits among some of the largest tech companies, like Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla.

What’s going on? What’s a stock split, anyway?

A stock split is a pretty simple concept. Let’s say a company had issued 100,000 shares of stock at $10 per share. That’s a total valuation of $1 million. If it were to do a 10-to-1 split, the number of shares would increase to 1 million. And each of the shares would be worth $1. The total capitalization of the company would not change. But the price of an individual share would get a lot cheaper.

The most common reason for a stock split is to encourage more buying of the stock in the hopes that it will lead to higher prices. A famous example of this occurred in 2010 when Berkshire Hathaway issued a 50-to-1 split for its Class B shares. It increased the amount of trading on the stock tremendously and allowed those B shares to be bought and sold on the S&P 500.

So, in theory, stock splits shouldn’t have any impact on price movement. But in practice, they do. Not always much. (The average, I think, is a spike of about 2.5%.) And not always for long. But they can make a difference.

Have the FAANG Stocks Lost Their Bite?

FAANG used to be a convenient and memorable term to describe the biggest tech giants on Wall Street: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. But Google has changed its name to Alphabet and Facebook to Meta. So, the acronym doesn’t work anymore. NAAMA? No. ANAMA? Maybe. MAANA? Like MAANA from heaven?

FAANG is not working well now in more important ways. After dominating the high-tech markets over the last 10 years, recent earnings on all five companies are looking shaky.

* Facebook lost about 500,000 daily users in Q4 2021, and suggested it could have its first year-over-year revenue drop next quarter.

* Apple recently warned it could lose $8 billion due to supply chain constraints this quarter.

* Amazon reported its first quarterly loss in seven years, resulting in the stock tumbling about 14%.

* Netflix announced it lost subscribers for the first time in over a decade, leading its stock to drop 35% the next day and wiping $50 billion from its valuation.

* Google showed slower growth than last year and missed revenue projections for Q1, thanks in part to a weak quarter for YouTube.

So far this year, all five stocks are down, with Apple being the only one outperforming the S&P 500 index.

 What is an NFT really worth? 

The tweet above was Jack Dorsey’s first NFT. In March 2021, during the early days of the NFT boom, it sold for $2.9 million.

Early this month, the owner, Sina Estavi, listed it for $48 million, promising to give half of that to charity. “Why not give 99% of it,” Dorsey quipped.

Two weeks later, the highest bid was for $280. It now stands at $12,000. If sold at that price, it would be a 99% loss in value.

Jonathan Perkins, cofounder of the NFT platform SuperRare, commented: “There has been a lot of experimentation in the space, and I think we’re running up against the boundaries of speculation.”

Greg Isenberg, CEO of the web3 design firm Late Checkout, had a different take. “This wasn’t a real sale,” he said. “There are only several buyers for something as big as this, and the listing price was unrealistic. Serious buyers wouldn’t bid on this. I didn’t.”

My take: Both comments are true.

The tweet above was Jack Dorsey’s first NFT. In March 2021, during the early days of the NFT boom, it sold for $2.9 million.

Early this month, the owner, Sina Estavi, listed it for $48 million, promising to give half of that to charity. “Why not give 99% of it,” Dorsey quipped.

Two weeks later, the highest bid was for $280. It now stands at $12,000. If sold at that price, it would be a 99% loss in value.

Jonathan Perkins, cofounder of the NFT platform SuperRare, commented: “There has been a lot of experimentation in the space, and I think we’re running up against the boundaries of speculation.”

Greg Isenberg, CEO of the web3 design firm Late Checkout, had a different take. “This wasn’t a real sale,” he said. “There are only several buyers for something as big as this, and the listing price was unrealistic. Serious buyers wouldn’t bid on this. I didn’t.”

My take: Both comments are true.

Rental Real Estate 101: What Does “Buying Right” Mean? 

I wrote a course on rental real estate investing 10 years ago when I was writing a blog called “Creating Wealth.” Recently, I decided to turn it into a book that recounts my personal experiences and what I’ve learned. But to make the book stronger, I asked my brother Justin to co-author it with me, since his experience is longer and stronger than mine. The following is an excerpt from an early chapter that explains a very useful trick we use to determine how much any rental property is worth. [italics]

One of the most important lessons I ever learned about investing in real estate was taught to me by my brother Justin. It is a very simple formula for estimating the value of almost any sort of rental property in a matter of seconds. It is brilliant. It is extremely useful. And it is incredibly reliable. (As most brilliant formulas are.)

I wish I had known about this formula when I made my first real estate investment. It would have saved me tens of thousands of dollars and four years of real estate hell. It gave me the confidence to invest strongly for several years, buying up dozens of single-family houses and two small apartment complexes that have given me millions of dollars in appreciated value and millions of dollars in cash flow since then.

Perhaps more importantly, it pushed me out of the market by 2006, when property values were unreasonably high, and thus kept me safe when the real estate bubble burst in the fall of 2008.

This is the formula:

If you can buy a piece of property and have it fixed up and ready to rent for less than 100 times the monthly rental income, consider buying it. If you can’t, walk away.

Example: You are looking to make your first investment. On the advice of a friend (me, perhaps), you are looking at three-bedroom, two-bath, single-family homes in working class neighborhoods in or near where you live. You find two houses that you can comfortably afford. One has a rental income of $1,500 and is priced at $145,000. Another has a rental income of $1,600 and is priced at $170,000. Which should you buy?

Using our simple formula, you multiply each rent by 100 to get your “limit.” The limit for the one renting at $1,500 is $150,000. The limit for the one renting at $1,600 is $160,000. The former meets the standard, as you can buy it for less than $150,000. The latter does not, since it’s priced above $160,000.

It’s as simple as that.

Justin calls this calculation the gross rent multiplier (GRM).

The GRM is simple. It is also a rule of thumb. In my experience, it has been reliable every time I’ve used it, without exception. But my brother warns me that there are times when you have to do more arithmetic than just the GRM. This is especially true for larger properties – apartments and complexes of 50-plus units. Hotels and motels. And the like.

But for anyone who is a novice investor, like I was when I began buying rental properties, it is a very good and trustworthy protocol to follow. It will save you loads of time and a fair bit of money considering questionable properties. It will also make you immune to seductive sales pitches because you won’t be listening to the claims and promises of owners, agents, and/or brokers. You will do the calculation mentally in a few seconds. And then you will know whether it’s worth your time to investigate the investment further.