“An optimist is a person who starts a new diet on Thanksgiving Day.” – Irv Kupcinet

What You Probably Didn’t Know About Thanksgiving

Some interesting things to ponder while enjoying your leftovers…

Backflow Friday

You know that Black Friday is a particularly hectic day for retail workers, but you may not know about another heavily affected industry – plumbing. According to Roto-Rooter, the Friday after Thanksgiving is their busiest day of the year. They attribute this to two things: (1) mishandled grease that finds its way into drains and garbage disposals and causes clogs, and (2) large gatherings of people that lead to bathroom overuse that stresses the system.

Same Old, Same Old… Only Different

Whether it’s for actual viewing or pleasant background noise, about 50 million Americans tune in to the annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade – an extravaganza that is estimated to cost between $11 million and $13 million each year. Another 3.5 million people usually brave the New York cold to watch it in person – some arriving as early as 6 am to get a good spot along the parade route, But this year, that’s not what happened. The only way to watch the parade was on TV. Yes, it had balloons and floats and celebrities and musical/theatrical performances, but (to avoid drawing crowds) there was no “parade route.” The action was centered around the Macy’s store at Herald Square, and much of it was pre-filmed.

The Great Balloon Massacre

Speaking of the Macy’s parade…

Originally, there was no limit to the size of the balloons in the parade – and they grew and grew. Strict regulations were put in place after strong winds damaged or demolished about 20 of the balloons in the 1997 event. The Pink Panther (one of the balloons that was subsequently banned from making future appearances) kept knocking over its handlers and had to be stabbed by the police to bring it down. Barney the Dinosaur flattened a tree, went out of control at 51st Street, and had to be stomped to death. And the Cat in The Hat – in what has been described as the worst accident in parade history – broke into the crowd, injuring 4 people, including one who was in a coma for a month.

Dutch Courage?

The commonly spouted Thanksgiving  “story” is that the pilgrims fled England to escape religious persecution. The truth is, they embarked on their journey from the highly tolerant country of Holland, where they had been living free from religious persecution (and the Church of England). Their mission was to remove their progeny from the materialism of Dutch culture and establish an ideal Christian commonwealth.

No Harm, [Probably] No Fowl

Another common narrative is that the pilgrims ended up oppressing and destroying the indigenous people whose settlement they stole upon arrival in 1621. In reality, the pilgrims came upon a nearly empty settlement that had already been destroyed by disease. One of the settlement’s survivors, Tisquantum (Squanto), would ultimately help the settlers cultivate crops and negotiate trades with the local Wampanoag chief Massasoit. Pilgrim governor William Bradford would even go on to call Squanto a “special instrument sent of God.” Their “Thanksgiving” was a three-day event (inspired by the Biblical holiday of Sukkot) celebrated by the settlers and Wampanoag, one that historians believe likely didn’t have turkey on the menu.

The First First Thanksgiving

Speaking of the first Thanksgiving…

Some historians tell us that the first Thanksgiving actually took place in Florida more than 50 years before the pilgrims got here. It happened on September 8, 1565 in St. Augustine – the day the Spanish settlers that founded the city came onshore, celebrated with a Thanksgiving Mass, and shared a meal with members of the local Seloy tribe. The food likely consisted of provisions that the settlers had brought with them on their ship (salted pork, garbanzo beans, hard biscuits, and wine), along with whatever the Seloy may have contributed (venison, tortoise, squash, fish… and maybe turkey).

Holy-Day? No Way!

On October 3, 1789, George Washington signed a proclamation designating Thursday, November 26 as a national day of thanks. But the proclamation was good only for that year. John Adams and James Madison, too, signed one-year-only proclamations. (Thomas Jefferson notably refused to acknowledge the day because he believed the religious connotations to be a direct violation of the First Amendment.) From then on, it was left up to the individual states. It wasn’t until 1863, when Abraham Lincoln proclaimed the last Thursday of November to be “a Day of Thanksgiving and Praise,” that it officially become an annual federal holiday.

The So-Called “Mother of Thanksgiving”

So who do we have to thank for Lincoln’s decision to make Thanksgiving a national holiday? Sarah Hale gets the credit, as she spent almost 40 years campaigning for it until she finally won over the president. As part of her campaign, Hale, the editor of Godey’s Lady’s Book, promoted the idea to her readers by publishing Thanksgiving-themed stories and poems and recipes for such things as roast turkey and pumpkin pie. (By the way, she is also credited with writing the poem that became the nursery rhyme “Mary Had a Little Lamb.”)

Our (Almost) National Bird

Following a congressional hearing in 1782, the Bald Eagle was selected as the national bird and symbol of the United States. But if Benjamin Franklin had his way, it would have been the turkey. Franklin admired the turkey’s territorial tenacity and had contempt for the eagle’s tendency to steal food from other animals. As he said in a letter to his daughter, “I wish the Bad Eagle had not been chosen…. He is a bird of bad moral character. He does not get his living honestly.”

It’s Not Just the Turkey That’s Stuffed

 Conking out on the couch after Thanksgiving dinner is almost a part of the tradition itself. We blame this so-called “turkey coma” on the mistaken belief that turkey is especially high in tryptophan, a sleep-inducing amino acid. The truth is, there just isn’t enough tryptophan in turkey to make you drowsy. (In fact, there’s more in chicken.) Chances are, you couldn’t keep your eyes open after dinner simply because you ate far too much of everything.

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3 Facts, 3 Words, 3 Thoughts 

THE FACTS 

* The Invention of the TV Dinner 

Like so many other life-improving inventions, the frozen TV dinner began as a mistake. 1n 1953, an employee of Swanson & Sons mistakenly ordered 260 tons of fresh turkey for the Thanksgiving holidays. This was way, way more than was needed. To get rid of the excess, salesman Gerry Thomas came up with a plan: They cooked the birds; ordered 5000 aluminum trays; filled them with turkey, mashed potatoes, and peas; and froze the whole thing. It saved the day. The following year Swanson sold 10 million frozen TV turkey trays at 98 cents each – a windfall of $9.8 million (over $94 million today)!

* The Best Kind of Investor 

In 2014, the Fidelity Mutual Funds group looked at records of its investors by age, sex, and account size to determine which ones had made the most money. They found that the only thing the best performers had in common was that they were all dead – and many of them had been dead for decades – though their accounts had not yet been closed. In other words, the best investment strategy seemed to be: Do nothing.

* The First Telephone Book 

In 1878, two years after Bell introduced the telephone to the public, the New Haven Telephone Company published a directory of its subscribers – a cardboard sheet with the names of 50 people and businesses that owned phones. It had no phone numbers, because people resisted the idea of dialing the numbers themselves. They much preferred talking to the company’s switchboard operator and having them connect the call. A copy of this directory sold in 2008 for $170,500.

THE WORDS 

* mien (noun) 

Mien (MEEN) is a person’s look or manner, especially one that indicates their character or mood.

Example: “Falsehood always endeavors to copy the mien and attitude of truth.” – Samuel Johnson

* bonhomie (noun) 

Bonhomie (bahn-uh-ME) – from the French for good (bon) + man (homme) – is geniality; cheerful friendliness.

Example: “John Stuart Mill, / By a mighty effort of will, / Overcame his natural bonhomie / And wrote ‘Principles of Political Economy.’” – Edmund Clerihew Bentley

* kawaii (noun or adjective) 

Kawaii (kuh-WHY or kuh-why-EE) – which roughly translates as lovable or adorable – is the Japanese pop culture of celebrating cuteness. As an adjective, the word can be associated with just about anything that is endearing, shy, and childlike. (Think “Hello Kitty” – perhaps the most famous kawaii character.)

Example (from Avril Lavigne’s song “Hello Kitty”):

Min’na saiko arigato, k-k-k-kawaii! (Thank you everyone, cute!)
K-k-k-kawaii.
Mom’s not home tonight
So we can roll around, have a pillow fight…

 THE THOUGHTS

(from Michael Masterson)  

* “You can’t be knowledgeable about everything. Choose what you want to know and what you are willing to be ignorant about. I choose to be ignorant about sports, because it seems trivial. And music, because I don’t think knowledge enhances my experience of it.”

* “In marriage and other important relationships, politeness is at least as important as passion.”

* “Having without sharing is having less than half.”

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Justin Goff on the “Chain of Belief” 

The first important skill I studied when I began my career in publishing was how to write a sales letter. Back then – in the early ‘80s – there weren’t any expert teachers available. (Today, there are hundreds. Probably thousands.) There were a few great books on brand advertising (Ogilvy on Advertising and Scientific Advertising come to mind), but I wasn’t aware of them. I learned by reading copy, imitating it, and having my work repeatedly torn up by JSN, my marketing-genius-but-nonwriting boss at the time.

My first sales letter made me a millionaire. That gave me the confidence to keep going.

In the mid ‘90s, I began working with BB. He had an entirely different (and more sophisticated) approach to copywriting. I learned from him. And we began what I think was the first school of copywriting in our industry. We spent a year teaching about a dozen smart young people what we knew. In teaching, you often take your learning to another level.

In the late ‘90s, I joined up with former protégés and started AWAI (American Writers & Artists Institute), a business devoted to teaching copywriting to beginners. That, too, was a terrific learning experience. It helped me understand how to explain some complicated concepts clearly, but it also gave me the opportunity to work with some of the best copywriters in the world at that time.

All of this to say that I am still surprised and delighted to be learning new things at this late period of my copywriting career.

Here’s a post from Justin Goff, a copywriting coach whose blog posts are always insightful, based on something he learned from Dan Kennedy, one of the most influential copywriting coaches of our time.

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Response Boosting Tip for Digital Marketers 

Here’s a potentially powerful way to boost eyeballs and click-throughs on your internet advertising.

Create a teaser that capitalizes on a popular current news or social interests story. It must be something you can connect to your product or service. But there are many more such opportunities than you may think.

Here’s an example: An estate planning attorney that put out a video connected to the hugely popular Netflix series “Tiger King.”

I like the idea of producing a “Famous Estates” series. And although it was clear to me that the video would link me to a pitch, I couldn’t resist clicking on it to see how the transition was managed.To do this properly, the transition must be smooth on both an emotional and intellectual level. You can’t allow the viewer to feel like he’s been suckered into a bait and switch.

In this case, the gimmick is unlikely to result in sales because the video itself is as bad as it could possibly be.

The connection with “Tiger King” and titling the video as part of a Famous Estates series evokes the expectation of tabloid-like sensationalism with the appropriate visual effects. Instead, you have this static presentation of an attorney reading obviously and poorly from a very amateurish script.

Had it been done properly, the viewer would have been entertained – both in his emotional satisfaction of the drama and the urgency of the claims about the danger of bad estate planning – and a confirming click-through to a landing page would have been almost impossible to resist.

Nevertheless, the core idea is very good. I’ve suggested this approach many times to marketers that I consult with. More often than not, they don’t understand how important it is to make an emotionally and intellectually consistent transition. But those that have done it right have gotten tremendous results.

Give it a try, and let me know if it works.

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What I’m Doing With My Money 

On July 24, I said I was putting a good amount of my stock into cash until I have an idea of what the election will bring us. On November 4, I made some predictions about what will happen regardless of who wins.

Now, with Biden 99% secured as president and the Senate and Supreme Court in relatively conservative hands, I don’t see any major regulations or tax hikes on the near horizon. But I do see (as I said) continued trillions of fake dollars issuing from Washington at rates much like we’ve been seeing.

That means more money into the stock market and the resultant upward pressure.

The stock market is already responding to that and to some other good news regarding the economy. As my colleague Alex Green reported last Friday:

* The US economy grew at a galloping 33.1% rate in the third quarter.

* An accompanying report revealed that new jobless claims declined by 40,000 in one week, to the lowest level since March 14, when the economic lockdown was about to begin.

* The economy has already recovered about half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April.

* Consumer spending – 70% of all economic activity – rose an astonishing 40.7% in the third quarter.

* Much of this consumption was on big-ticket items like new homes, furniture, cars, home exercise equipment, and other durable goods. (Consumers don’t make major purchases unless they feel optimistic about their income and job security.)

* The personal savings rate was a healthy 15.8%, indicating that there’s still plenty of consumer spending capacity.

* And all of this happened without another federal stimulus package.

So I’m putting back half of the money I pulled out of the market immediately, and then gradually putting the rest back over the next several months – just to be safe.

Why Americans Must Fight Antisemitism 

Earlier this month, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo told CNN that COVID-19 spike clusters were “predominantly ultra-Orthodox.” This was in response to protests by the Orthodox Jewish community against social gathering restrictions they viewed as violations of their religious freedom. “They have never complied with the rules,” Cuomo said in a conference call. He went on to say “Maybe money works,” when discussing withholding funds from non-compliant Orthodox communities.

Antisemitism represents a threat not just to Jews, but to all minorities, and to American civilization itself, says Dennis Prager, the founder of Prager University, a conservative advocacy group.

“The moment civilization begins to disintegrate,” he says, “the Jews are the first victims – never the only, but always the first.

“Six million Jews were killed by the Nazis. But tens of millions of non-Jews were also killed. Many of these people believed, incorrectly, that Hitler had a Jewish problem. But that was not the end of it.

“It is often asked how the most culturally advanced country in Europe… the country that gave us Bach, Beethoven, Heine, and Schiller, [could] give us Auschwitz.

“One answer is that advanced culture and advanced morality are not the same. The Nazis loved classical music.

“The other, more important answer is that civilization is fragile.”

Civilization is fragile, Prager says, because it is composed of humans, and human nature is profoundly flawed. “It takes a great deal of effort and a great deal of time to make a decent society. But it takes little effort and little time to destroy a society.”

What is going on in America, he says, is the willful destruction of our culture. It’s being done in the name of social justice, but the goal is political. And politics is never about justice. It is about power.

History tells us that there is a recognizable progression to cultural revolution. It begins with an attack on traditional ideas in universities. This builds until those traditional ideas are accepted as not just wrong but evil. This then morphs quickly into an attack on free speech. You have a choice: Embrace the new ideology and become part of the virtuous avant-garde. Or reject it and announce yourself as the enemy.

Once free speech is gone, the culture, which has been holding the society together, disintegrates, along with the diversity of thought and cultural expression that created it.

“Why, then,” Prager asks, “does this [current radical left-wing effort to destroy our culture] not frighten America’s Jews? Do they not know how much Black Lives Matter, Antifa, and the rest of the left loathe Israel? Or do they not care?”

“Any fool can make a rule. And any fool will mind it.” – Henry David Thoreau

California’s Happy Holiday Agenda

Hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 in California are at their lowest levels in six months. That’s good news for residents of our most populous state. And at a good time – weeks before the holiday season begins.

Perhaps encouraged by this, Governor Gavin Newsom recently issued a revised set of rules to let Californians know how to enjoy their Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. The rules are so bizarre, I wondered if Newsom was joking.

I asked Amaru to check it out. He did and confirmed. Here are the new rules…

1. Don’t Light That Fireplace

No more Thanksgiving and Christmas gathering around the hearth. This year, California families will be outside in their backyards, front yards, or driveways. And if a party-goer needs to take a leak, no problem. California’s Dept. of Health has that covered: Holiday party-goers can go inside to use the bathroom when they need to – so long as those bathrooms are “frequently sanitized.”

Need protection from the rain or smog or cold? No problem! Governor Newsom and his team have opened their hearts and written in a provision that lets families take shelter under canopies, awnings, and other shade structures – so long as “at least three sides of the space (or 75%) are open to the outdoors.”

2. More Than Three’s a [Prohibited] Crowd

Forget Aunt Suzie and your nogoodnik brother and his family. Thanks to Governor Newsom, this year’s holiday parties are going to be VIP family members only. Gatherings are restricted to “no more than three households.”

And if the party happens to be in a public park, don’t even think about trying to book two groups of three next to one another. As the Dept. of Health put it: “Multiple gatherings of three households cannot be jointly organized or coordinated to occur in the same public park or other outdoor space at the same time – this would constitute a gathering exceeding the permitted size.”

3. Take Names, Kick Asses

Hosts are required to “gather the names and contact information for all attendees” for the totally noble and sensible purpose of gathering contact information. This is actually a great idea because it’s so easy to forget the names and addresses of your family members.

4. Plenty of Elbow Room at the Table

How large is your dining room table?

The California health patrol reminds celebrants to set the table to allow for six feet of distancing “in all directions front-to-back and side-to-side between different households.” Sharing is forbidden. And leave those holiday plates in the cupboard. “All food and beverage items are to be in single-serve, disposable containers.”

5. Forget the Ugly Christmas Sweater, Bring Your Ugly Christmas Mask

All party attendees are reminded to wear face masks “in compliance with the California Dept. of Health’s face covering guidelines” at all times, except when drinking or chewing or swallowing meds or using inhalers.

6. Make It a Short – and Silent – Night

Good news for those that are always angling for excuses to leave the party early. The new guidelines limit gatherings to two hours or less.

As for singing: In order to “reduce respiratory droplets and fine aerosols into the air,” party-goers are advised to keep the volume to a minimum – preferably “at or below the volume of a normal speaking voice.” And if you want to play an instrument, it better not have a spit valve. Playing wind instruments is “strongly discouraged.”

P.S. Apropos of the above, I just got the following from my old friend JM:

Friends – I have been told that only 6 are allowed for Thanksgiving but 30 are allowed for a funeral. I will be holding a funeral for our pet turkey who will pass away on November 26th.

Refreshments provided.

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Big News About COVID-19 Testing That You Probably Don’t Know 

According to the October 16 edition of The Washington Post, new coronavirus cases are spiking in the United States and Europe, with 13 states reporting record-setting numbers of infections over the past week. That sounds scary. But, of course, what they didn’t report is the data on the fact that matters: deaths.

And the fact is that deaths from the virus have NOT increased since the beginning of September – either worldwide or in the US.

Here’s something else they should be reporting on…

The conventional wisdom regarding testing is that if you get a positive result, you have the virus, you are contagious, and you should self-quarantine until you are tested again to determine that the infection is gone.

But according to a study reported on in the NYT (of all places) on August 29, and then reported again by OANN, that may not be true.

In fact, it’s possible that 85% to 90% of the tests done this year in the US were faulty.

The problem was with the PCR test – the one we are all familiar with. The swab up the nose. If you’ve ever had this test, you know that the result comes back as positive or negative. Simple and clear.

But it’s not simple. Or clear.

Here’s why: Virologists have always known that the danger of both getting sick from a virus and also spreading it to others depends not on if you have the virus in you, but on how much of it you have.

I’ve suggested this in several past issues of the blog. (Check them out HERE, HERE, and HERE.) But since no one else was talking about it, I figured it was unimportant or I was wrong.

But it looks like I was right. And it is important.

It means that the protocol of quarantining everyone that tested positive was wrong. We should have quarantined only those whose level was above a certain threshold. We didn’t because we were operating on the assumption that any amount of coronavirus in a person was life-threatening. We weren’t measuring levels of the virus. It was a yes-no test, with a mistake built into it.

The mistake was this. Labs typically amplify the samples they get in order to reach a level where they can be detected. Standard practice is 30 amplifications. But in 85% to 90% of the PCR tests done this year, the amplifications were at 40, not 30. Which means it’s possible that 85% to 90% of people that tested positive were neither contagious nor at risk of getting severely sick and dying.

Here’s a link to the NYT article.

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Greed Is Bad; Gold Is Good 

David Forest, editor of “The Strategic Investor,” believes we are in the early stages of a “historic gold bull market.”

Main Reason: Fed Money Printing – “Since the market crash in March, the Federal Reserve has pumped out $3 trillion in new money supply. And there’s more coming.”

Eventually, there will be a crash, Forest says. And when that happens, people typically move to gold. But, he says, don’t expect gold to shoot up immediately.

“During [financial] crises, people sell everything. That includes physical gold. We saw that back in March, when the gold price dropped 12% in nine days – even as the gold supply dropped as mines halted production due to the coronavirus restrictions….

“In 2008, the Dow lost 53%. Gold bullion dropped from $1000 per ounce to $700.

But although it took the Dow four years to recoup its losses, gold quickly rebounded. By September 2009, it was back to $1000. It then soared to a record $1927.70 in 2011….

“Many people don’t realize, but the troubled 1930s were the same. Gold mining was one of the few industries that prospered.”

So Forest recommends stocking up on physical gold and, if you like to speculate, taking a position in a gold mining stock, since gold mining stocks often accelerate exponentially when gold prices rise.

But whatever you do, don’t panic if in the initial few days or weeks of the crash, gold prices drop. If history repeats, they’ll come back again and stronger.

“We have decided we will not renew our lease when in January,” the email said. “Our employees have told us they like working at home and, as you’ve noticed from the monthly reports, the business hasn’t suffered in terms of revenues or profits. This will save us more than $100,000 next year.”

That came from the head honchos of one of the businesses I have an interest in. They currently occupy a 4000-square-foot building.

Then this morning, inside a local bank with which I do business, K and I noticed that there were only three employees in the offices instead of the usual 15 or 20. “So will everyone be coming back now that our governor has given the go-ahead?” K asked the banker we were working with. “Not likely,” he said. “We’ve been doing fine with most people working from home. There are even some advantages.”

So I’m thinking that my speculation on June 29 that the commercial real estate market is in danger is feeling like the right call. I predicted office usage might drop 25% to 50%. Who knows? That may turn out to be an understatement!