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“When you go on a road trip, the trip itself is part of the story.” – Steve Rushin

 

Against All Odds: Denver to LA in a Vintage RV, Part II

6:30: A clear and sunny morning. 29 degrees. Praise the Lord! It’s about 400 miles from Green River to Las Vegas. In a conventional vehicle, it would take less than 6 hours. In the Dodge Travco, whose average speed is about 55 mph, it should take us closer to 8. Assuming no surprises.

The breakfast room is closed due to the COVID Crush Down. But you can order at the hostess stand and they deliver it to you a few minutes later in a Styrofoam container. I once spent a week in jail eating breakfast that was delivered in Styrofoam containers. The eggs were cold. The bacon was greasy. I promised myself I’d never again eat breakfast from a Styrofoam container. There’s some macaroni salad in a plastic container left from yesterday. I have that instead.

We’re off and running at 8:00 am. Liam is driving again. Michael and I have been switching in the shotgun seat, but neither of us has drummed up the courage to relieve Liam at the wheel. The countryside is beautiful. High, dry desert interrupted with dramatic hills and flat-headed mesas that face Route 70, like Sphinxes against azure blue skies. The road is straight ahead of us. Deserted. The Dodge is running nicely.

I’m in the back and I’m working, happy I’m able to type given the way this vehicle moves. It lists right and left slightly – just enough to make you feel nauseated. And its thin, maximally inflated tires vibrate annoyingly, except on the smoothest stretches of road. Thirty years of working in planes, trains, and automobiles has trained me to type under these conditions. I’m grateful for that because I have about a half-dozen urgencies I have to finish by the end of the day.

We stop for gas – as we must do every two hours. The reason, Liam explains, is that the original gas tank, which holds 50 gallons, is rusted out and so he had a considerably smaller tank put in temporarily to get us to LA. That, and the fact that this behemoth gets only 7 miles per gallon. Liam fills the tank while Michael and I chat with K, who is tracking our progress as if she suspects more obstacles lie in our way. Pulling out of the gas station, Liam complains about the cost of gas here: $2.85 per gallon.

It’s my time to sit shotgun. As I walk to the seat at the front, the RV hits a pothole and I’m suddenly clobbered by a sheet of plywood, a roll of carpet, and various other junk that tumbles out of the closet, whose original door has been replaced with a bath curtain. Struggling to climb out of the avalanche of detritus, I stand and fall again as the Dodge rumbles down the highway. Michael looks back on me, trying to suppress a smile. I feel old. Michael hops off his perch and assists me to the shotgun seat. I feel older still.

“So,” I ask Liam in the most neutral tone I can muster, “What’s all that crap doing in there, anyway?”

“Oh, it’s just stuff we haven’t yet thrown away.”

I nod.

“Sorry about that, Dad.”

We are listening to a taped selection of 70s rock and roll.

“What’s with the music?” I want to know.

“It’s Michael’s idea. To match the RV.”

At noonish, we pull off the highway and take a local road that brings us to a stretch of fast food restaurants. We debate the options and opt for McDonald’s. I order my favorite lunch in the world: a double cheeseburger, small fries, and a large Diet Coke. We had hoped to eat inside, but it’s been roped off. So we have our meal on the curb, which is fun.

A couple of hours later, the Dodge is sputtering. Liam is concerned. We take the next exit and find an auto repair shop. I check Google Maps. We are in St. George, Utah. Again, as with yesterday’s repairs, the mechanic is super nice. He checks the engine and tells us we are missing the oil cap, which explains the need to put motor oil in the engine so frequently. The hot oil that’s been spilling out splattered on the spark plugs that were improperly insulated, causing two of them to arc and burn out. He sends a helper to drive to a nearby auto parts store and get replacement spark plugs, along with another air filter, which has gotten dirty since we put in a new one yesterday. The repair takes about 90 minutes. The charge is $160 – three times what yesterday’s cost, but it still seems crazily cheap to me. I’m so happy that we can get going again and possibly reach Las Vegas today that I give the guy a $100 tip.

For the next three hours, the Dodge runs beautifully. We arrive in Las Vegas at about seven o’clock. As we pull in front of the Wynn Hotel, we are greeted by onlookers with grins and thumbs up. There are probably a dozen amazingly and garishly impressive hotels in Las Vegas.  The Wynn, I was told, was one of the best. Our rooms, on the 39th floor, are clean, commodious and luxurious, with floor-to-ceiling windows that provide spectacular views of the now nighttime cityscape of this impossible town.

After showering, we have dinner at the Lakeside Restaurant, which specializes in seafood, some caught this very day in Hawaii and jetted to Las Vegas in time for dinner guests to enjoy. I order a risotto. The boys share a steak. Across from our table is a huge artificial waterfall against which a series of spectacular light shows heightens our enjoyment of the meal. The bill comes to $369 – exactly three times the cost of our dinner last night.

Afterwards, we hit the casino. Liam and Michael go to the roulette table. I sit at a nearby bar that has a poker console in front of every barstool. I order a tequila and club soda and stare at this game in front of me. I feel I should play it, but I realize I don’t want to. Instead, I sip my drink and smoke a really fine Rocky Patel. I’m in bed at 11:00, feeling tired but completely happy to be on this adventure with two of my boys. Tomorrow is the final leg, from Las Vegas to LA. We will leave at noon, after my 10:30 meeting, and should arrive, Lord willing, at around 5:00 – unless… who knows what?

 

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“An inconvenience is an adventure wrongly considered.” – Gilbert K. Chesterton

 

Against All Odds: Denver to LA in a Vintage RV

The alarm wakes me at 6:30. I check my weather app. It’s 18 degrees – 8 degrees with wind chill. I get up, shout a good morning to Liam and Michael in the adjacent room, take a hot shower, and dress. Long johns, layers, and flannels. And the ski jacket Alec gave me yesterday morning in Cleveland, after he checked the weather and saw that a cold front was moving through Denver.

It arrived yesterday – a blizzard of ice and snow. You couldn’t see beyond a car’s length in front of you. It would have been challenging for a 2020 four-wheel SUV. For what we are driving, it was a no-go.

I look out the window. The sky is clear. As we leave the hotel, the doorman grins at us.

“Where’re you heading?”

“LA.”

“In that?”

We nod.

Now he’s laughing.

It’s a 1973 Dodge Travco. All 12,000 pounds of it waits for us snowbound in front of the hotel.

 

I kick away the snow bank in front of the vehicle. Michael scrapes the ice from the windshield and Liam checks the engine and then jumps in and cranks it. It starts right up. A good omen.

The engine should be good. Liam had it rebuilt in Missouri before he took delivery. The brakes are new, too, having been replaced when the mechanic took it on a test drive and was almost killed when the old brakes failed while he was going down a steep hill.

On the drive from Missouri to Denver, the temperature began dropping. That’s when the boys discovered that the heater system didn’t work. After stopping every 10 minutes to clean the windshield, they stopped at a Walmart and bought a small space heater, which Liam propped up on the dashboard in front of him. That cleared up just enough space to take them through two days of driving.

“All aboard!” Liam calls after the engine was humming. I climb inside, the first time I’ve seen the interior.

“Wow!” I said.

“Nice, huh?” Liam says with a laugh.

The interior looks like it hasn’t been touched in 47 years. Touched or cleaned, for that matter.  Whatever image that brings to your mind, I promise you: It is worse.

 

 

Liam and Michael climb into the front seats. I take one in the back. I notice it doesn’t have a seat belt. (I wonder: Did they have rear seatbelts in 1973?)

Driving through town, I quickly discover that the lack of a seat belt is not the real problem.  The real problem is that the seat itself is not bolted to the frame. I know that because it slides as we change lanes.

And now another problem: The door next to me swings wide open on left-hand turns. My unbolted seat slides scarily towards the opening. I scream. The vehicle stops.

We have a little discussion about this. Yes, the boys were aware of the problem. But no, it didn’t particularly bother them because they were securely strapped into the front seats.

“Don’t worry, Dad,” Liam says.

He fishes through several boxes of what look to be stuff that should have been thrown out by the original owner and finds a length of wire that he ties to the door handle and then again to another handle.

“All set!” he says. And off we go.

As we continue through downtown Denver, pedestrians gawk and grin at us as we pass them. Several give us a thumbs up. That cheers me. I don’t know why.

At the first stoplight, the engine stalls.

“What the heck?” Liam says.

He turns off the ignition, puts the transmission in neutral, and restarts the engine. At the next stoplight, it happens again.

“What’s wrong?” Michael asks.

“I don’t know. Maybe the engine is cold.”

It occurs to me that this is exactly what it must be. It’s been so long since I’ve been in a car with a motor that needs warming up that I’d forgot how common stalling out at a stoplight was back in the day.

It stalls again at the next light, but starts right back up again.

 “It’s warming up,” we agree.

Our destination is Liam’s house in LA. The goal is to get this antique curiosity there in one piece. This is day four for Liam and Michael. Day two for me. Today’s plan is to drive west along I-70 for three hours, and then find someplace to stop that has WiFi. I have a Zoom business meeting at 11:30. When that’s over, we’ll drive on and have lunch in Grand Junction, and then try to reach Green River where we’ll find lodging for the night.

A light snow begins. Liam switches on the windshield wipers. They are vintage. Like skinny teenagers, they move awkwardly over the wind- and snow-battered glass, cleaning with one stroke and smearing with another.

At about 11:00 am, we pull into a rest stop in Eagle, Colorado, that features a Starbucks. Good news. They have socially distanced seating. I find a table in the corner and prepare for my Zoom meeting. Meanwhile, the boys go looking for more engine oil (it needs refilling every 100 miles) at a local auto parts store that also sells power tools and firearms. Two hours later, we are on our way again.

I forgot to mention: The speedometer cable broke some time before the boys arrived in Denver. It’s been rattling ever since, but now the rattle has morphed into an ear-piercing, demonic howl. Liam and Michael make a dozen calls to auto shops in Grand Junction and find only one that has the time to remove the damned thing. They are very kind and accommodating. They remove the cable, change the gas filter, check the tires, and put in oil. The total bill: $50.

 We arrive in Green River at 7:00 and book two rooms in what an online app described as “the finest motel in town,” the River Terrace Inn. I can describe its level of luxury this way: The porte cochere was twice the size of the motel itself.

Dinner is at a diner next door. Social distancing in the foyer. Less than that in the dining room. The menu is vast – like a Greek diner in New York. The staff are friendly and professional. Liam orders ribs. Michael orders pork chops. I order an Asian chicken salad. The food, to our delight, is excellent.

After dinner, we walk down the bank and look at the Green River, smoking and talking about tomorrow’s objective: Las Vegas.

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Any fool can make a rule. And any fool will mind it.” – Henry David Thoreau

 

California’s Happy Holiday Agenda

 

Hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 in California are at their lowest levels in six months. That’s good news for residents of our most populous state. And at a good time – weeks before the holiday season begins.

Perhaps encouraged by this, Governor Gavin Newsom recently issued a revised set of rules to let Californians know how to enjoy their Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. The rules are so bizarre, I wondered if Newsom was joking.

I asked Amaru to check it out. He did and confirmed. Here are the new rules…

 

  1. Don’t Light That Fireplace

No more Thanksgiving and Christmas gathering around the hearth. This year, California families will be outside in their backyards, front yards, or driveways. And if a party-goer needs to take a leak, no problem. California’s Dept. of Health has that covered: Holiday party-goers can go inside to use the bathroom when they need to – so long as those bathrooms are “frequently sanitized.”

Need protection from the rain or smog or cold? No problem! Governor Newsom and his team have opened their hearts and written in a provision that lets families take shelter under canopies, awnings, and other shade structures – so long as “at least three sides of the space (or 75%) are open to the outdoors.”

 

  1. More Than Three’s a [Prohibited] Crowd

Forget Aunt Suzie and your nogoodnik brother and his family. Thanks to Governor Newsom, this year’s holiday parties are going to be VIP family members only. Gatherings are restricted to “no more than three households.”

And if the party happens to be in a public park, don’t even think about trying to book two groups of three next to one another. As the Dept. of Health put it: “Multiple gatherings of three households cannot be jointly organized or coordinated to occur in the same public park or other outdoor space at the same time – this would constitute a gathering exceeding the permitted size.”

 

  1. Take Names, Kick Asses

Hosts are required to “gather the names and contact information for all attendees” for the totally noble and sensible purpose of gathering contact information. This is actually a great idea because it’s so easy to forget the names and addresses of your family members.

 

  1. Plenty of Elbow Room at the Table

How large is your dining room table?

The California health patrol reminds celebrants to set the table to allow for six feet of distancing “in all directions front-to-back and side-to-side between different households.” Sharing is forbidden. And leave those holiday plates in the cupboard. “All food and beverage items are to be in single-serve, disposable containers.”

 

  1. Forget the Ugly Christmas Sweater, Bring Your Ugly Christmas Mask

All party attendees are reminded to wear face masks “in compliance with the California Dept. of Health’s face covering guidelines” at all times, except when drinking or chewing or swallowing meds or using inhalers.

 

  1. Make It a Short – and Silent – Night

Good news for those that are always angling for excuses to leave the party early. The new guidelines limit gatherings to two hours or less.

As for singing: In order to “reduce respiratory droplets and fine aerosols into the air,” party-goers are advised to keep the volume to a minimum – preferably “at or below the volume of a normal speaking voice.” And if you want to play an instrument, it better not have a spit valve. Playing wind instruments is “strongly discouraged.”

 

P.S. Apropos of the above, I just got the following from my old friend JM:

Friends – I have been told that only 6 are allowed for Thanksgiving but 30 are allowed for a funeral. I will be holding a funeral for our pet turkey who will pass away on November 26th.

Refreshments provided.

 

 

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“There are only two lasting bequests we can hope to give to our children. One of these is roots, the other, wings.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

 

The 7 Best Gifts We Gave Our Children

There is a view of parenting that advocates giving our children every advantage possible in order to accelerate their development and increase their chances of having happy and successful lives.

There is another view that is about protecting our children from hardship and danger. 

There is still another view about giving our children the privileges and luxuries that we didn’t enjoy as children.

And there are parenting professionals out there supporting one or several of these notions. The secret to raising wonderful children, they aver, is to protect them from adversity and to give them everything possible to make their lives fuller, easier, richer, and happier. 

And by “everything,” they are talking not just about material possessions but also about such things as freedom, friendship, dignity, comfort, security, and the all-time favorite: unconditional love.

These were not the ideas that K and I embraced in our parenting. 

Our childrearing was based on a different philosophy: leaving the road before them pot-holed and bumpy, and allowing them to experience all the difficulties and challenges we ourselves had faced. 

Judging by the results of our experiment and those of our coevals that embraced the more widely held parenting philosophies, I’m glad we did what we did. Because our boys turned out to be people we both like and admire.

Here are the ”advantages” we gave to our children:

1. The Experience of Relative Poverty

K and I grew up in working-class neighborhoods. The low end. We felt the usual level of embarrassment that working-class kids feel about all the things they don’t have. Like new clothes. And lunchboxes (vs. paper bags). And spending money. When our children were young, we provided them with those same embarrassments. And when they were old enough to drive, we didn’t buy them cars, as some parents did. If they wanted a car, they could pay for it with the money they earned after school. So they drove the sort of cars we drove when we were in high school: junkers. (I still fondly remember watching Number One Son scrubbing the torn plastic seating of his 20-year-old pickup truck before his first date.) 

2. Second-Class Status

We grew up in families that had double standards. And we imposed those double standards on our boys. Parents had privileges that children were denied. Children had rules that parents were exempt from. Until our boys were old enough to leave home and fend for themselves, they had to accept their position as second-class family members. We could eat what we wanted. They could not. We could go to bed when we wanted to. They went to bed when we told them to. As they got older, we gradually gave them more autonomy – but only if they earned it by acting like responsible adults. The bottom line was always an absolute: We were the parents. They were the kids. Our family was not a democracy. And they were not our equals.

3. Insecurity

When you grow up as K and I did, you become instinctively insecure. You recognize that sometimes things roll your way. Sometimes the world eats you for lunch. C’est la vie, we explained to our kids. We did not then and do not now view insecurity as a bad thing. We saw it as necessary for survival in the real world. We made sure our boys understood that they were guaranteed nothing. That anything they got must be earned. And that there were dangers lurking that we could not protect them from – some of them inescapable. They needed to understand that life is tough, and if they wanted to succeed, they had to learn to overcome obstacles. Again and again.

4. Deprivations

Our children were not free to do what they wanted. We (mostly K, to her credit) put restrictions on just about everything they enjoyed – from watching TV to playing video games to hanging out with their friends to going out on weekends when they were in high school. We knew that they would push whatever boundaries we set, and so we made those boundaries very firm.

5. Disapproval

Like most parents, we wanted our children to succeed in their work – as students and in their extracurricular activities. We never made them feel that we expected them to excel at anything in particular, but we made it clear that we expected them to approach everything they did in earnest. When they did, we rewarded them with well-earned praise. When they did not, they got what they knew they deserved: our disapproval.

6. Punishment

K was a big believer in reasonable but consistent sanctions for undesirable behavior, which included speaking disrespectfully to adults and treating their peers unkindly. Our boys’ behavior mattered to us. Their manners mattered, too. So we used punishment for the bad as well as praise for the good to raise our children. 

7. Conditional Love

Where did it come from – the idea that unconditional love is a good thing? The meaning is patently bad. How does it do either party – the lover or the beloved – any good? It makes a masochist of the one and a solipsist of the other. 

Parental love that is unconditional is irresponsible. It is the act of yielding when withholding is called for. It says: You can do whatever you want. When people say they love their children unconditionally, they actually mean that they refuse to take on the responsibility of doing the tough things that a parent must do to raise a responsible, affable, and admirable human being.

 

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Book of the Week

The Wave: In Pursuit of the Rogues, Freaks, and Giants of the Ocean, by Susan Casey

I’m sure I would not have ordered this book had I not just finished watching “Octopus Teacher.” (See above.) I was deep in the beautiful mysteries of the oceans and didn’t want to come out of the water.

The Wave, I’d read, was a NYT bestseller. How could that be?

One reason, I discovered, was that Susan Casey is a very good writer. Another is that she writes about very exciting topics – in this case, giant waves. The 70- to 80-foot waves that extreme surfers like Laird Hamilton ride, but also the even bigger rogue waves and tsunamis that exceed 100 feet and can actually break an 800-foot ship in two like snapping a pencil.

The Wave is chock full of exciting stories about disappearing ships, as well as the history of giant waves, the new science behind them, and such fascinating miscellany as how Lloyd’s of London insures against them.

I’m only a third of the way into it, at this point, but I can already feel the excitement of the ride.

Click here to watch a talk that Casey gave about the book at a bookstore in California.

And click here to watch a TED Talk – “ Dispatches from the Dark Heart of the Ocean” – that she gave in Maui.

 

 About the Author 

Susan Casey, author of the NYT bestseller The Devil’s Teeth: A True Story of Obsession and Survival Among America’s Great White Sharks, is editor-in-chief of O, The Oprah Magazine. She is a National Magazine Award-winning journalist whose work has been featured in the Best American Science and Nature WritingBest American Sports Writing, and Best American Magazine Writing anthologies. Her work has also appeared in EsquireSports IllustratedFortuneOutside, and National Geographic. Casey lives in New York City and Maui.

 

 Reviews of The Wave 

 “Immensely powerful, beautiful, addictive, and, yes, incredibly thrilling…. Like a surfer who is happily hooked, the reader simply won’t be able to get enough of it.” – San Francisco Chronicle 

“[An] adrenaline rush of a book…. As terrifying as it is awe inspiring.” 
People

“Casey’s descriptions of these monsters are as gripping in their own way as any mountaineering saga from the frozen peaks of Everest or K2.” – The Washington Post Book World 
 

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”There is a difference between listening and waiting for your turn to speak.” – Simon Sinek

 

Why I Wasn’t “Loyal” to My Broker

 

I called my broker but was connected to someone I didn’t know. She told me my broker was “no longer with the company.”

“What does that mean?” I asked.

“He’s just not with us anymore.

“So why wasn’t I told?”

“We were just about to notify you.”

That concerned me. I had open trades that needed managing. What if something fell through the cracks?

A few days later, I was visited by the branch manager and a young man who was to be my old broker’s replacement. The manager apologized for not notifying me immediately, explaining that the situation was “difficult and personal,” and then assured me that my account was being tended to properly.

That was half the reason for their visit. The other half was to convince me to keep my money with them.

Investment firms generally prohibit their brokers from trying to take their “book” of clients with them when they move to another firm. But it’s hard to do that when the broker-client relationship is a longstanding and trusted one.

When a broker leaves a brokerage, the house initiates a “retention” protocol that involves routine efforts to persuade the broker’s clients to stay with the firm. But when a departed broker leaves a “book” of “whales,” the protocol is more like a cold war, with each side doing everything they can legally do to grab or retain as many of the big fish as they can.

I knew that. And I suspected that my broker had been legally restrained from contacting me while he was still with his old firm or shortly thereafter, which accounted for my being in the dark. I expected he would contact me soon, and about a week later he did.

But by that time, I had already decided to keep my money with the brokerage.

Why I did that is the subject of this essay.

My broker was a bright person. He knew the markets. He understood the game. And, as a top earner in his office, he had proven himself to be a superb salesman. But what was important to me was that I trusted him to do a good job. And that meant helping me make buy-and-sell decisions based on my insights and my temperament, not on his inclinations or the directions of the firm.

But there was one little thing about him that always irked me. He had a tendency to talk when I wanted him to listen.

I’d call him up to ask a specific question about some of my bonds. His answer would come in a rush of statements replete with data I could not verify and financial terminology I did not completely understand.

When I’d attempt to interrupt him for clarification, he would talk over me. He didn’t do it rudely. Had he been rude, I would have ended the relationship immediately. He seemed to be motivated more by his excitement about the investment. Every so often, I would ask him, politely, to slow down and listen to me. He’d apologize profusely, but it was a habit he couldn’t break. And it was annoying. But I wrote it off as a peccadillo.

I believed then and I still do that in his mind he had my best interests at heart. And since my accounts were growing at the time, he had good reason to feel that way.

But then one day I received a notice saying that I had bought shares of an IPO. It was a digital business that was all promise but no performance. Exactly the kind of company that, had he ever actually listened to me, he would know I would never buy. Why had he done this?

I called him, and he told me that my son, who also had an account with him, had asked him to buy some of the shares for him. It wasn’t easy to get shares of this company’s IPO at the time, but he gave some to my son and he gave some to me. He said he was doing me a favor.

I believed him. I was, after all, one of his bigger clients. If he had a stash of these hard-to-get shares, he’d be smart to distribute them to clients like me. But it bothered me that he had gone ahead, without asking me first, and spent my money on a business whose P/E ratio was about 100 to 1.

For all his many good qualities – and they were numerous – he wasn’t a good listener. And his poor listening skills were a problem for two reasons:

 

* He wasn’t good at teaching me about the technical side of investing because he didn’t listen to my questions.

 

* He never really understood my core investing philosophy – the principles I live by because they have worked so well for me in my wealth-building career.

 

Those thoughts were in the back of my mind when I was visited by the branch manager of the brokerage and the young man – Dominick – who was going to be handling my account “if” I decided to leave it with them.

After the introductions and pleasantries were over, the manager presented Dominick’s credentials, which were solid.

I was a bit worried about his youth. He looked to be in his early to mid thirties. But my worries were diminished almost entirely when he began speaking.

The first thing he said to me was something like, “Mr. Ford, I’ve been studying your accounts and their history. I know where your portfolio is right now. What I’d like to know is where you want to go with it. And what else I could do to make you happy with me as your broker.”

Wow! That was a very good opening. He was young but he was saying all the right things. He had the initiative to have studied my accounts before we met and he had no intention of telling me what to do. He wanted me to tell him how he could help me.

This, in my view, is the right relationship to have with your broker. You are the owner of your wealth, not your broker. You pay him. He works for you. You are his boss. He should treat you like his boss.

You may be thinking, “Gee, I don’t want to be my broker’s boss. He’s the guy that knows about investing. And he has much bigger clients than me. I certainly don’t want to insult him by bossing him around when he knows and I know that I don’t know what I’m doing.”

If that’s the way you think about your broker, you need to change things. And fast.

It doesn’t matter that you know less about stocks and bonds than he does. It doesn’t matter that you feel like a small fry because you don’t have 10 million bucks in your account. It doesn’t matter if all your questions feel “stupid.” If you aren’t the boss of that relationship, you are in trouble.

In the weeks that followed, Dominick was in touch with me at least twice a week.

We reviewed my entire portfolio, made key changes to restructure it in accordance with my asset allocation preferences, and agreed on buying and selling parameters so we could work more fluidly in the future.

As the months passed, I felt better and better about my decision to say goodbye to my old broker and work with Dominick. It wasn’t that I felt Dominick had better insights or even better intentions than my old broker. It was that he was going to let me be in charge of how my money was being invested.

It may seem strange, but after so many years of being in the financial information business, I still felt insecure about investing. I felt confident in my core ideas. I was definitely a conservative investor. But because I did not have the detailed understanding of specific investment strategies that brokers have, I often found myself deferring to them when my gut was saying “Don’t do it.”

If I, as someone that’s been in and around the financial industry for 30 years, can feel that way, I can only imagine the pressure someone else – who hasn’t had my experience or success – must feel when being pitched.

If you’ve ever felt like that, this story was for you. And the takeaway is this: You have to be in charge of your relationship with anyone that is handling your money. That includes stock and bond brokers, life insurance agents, financial advisors, estate planners, and even your tax attorney.

Don’t allow them to intimidate you. Don’t feel embarrassed when you don’t understand what they are saying. Say, “Stop right there and say that again, but without all the gibberish. If you aren’t able to explain it to me clearly, I will have to find someone who can.”

And if that’s not enough, remind them that you are the person paying their fees. You are the boss. Their job is not just to give you good advice and execute your wishes, but to make sure that they understand your preferences and follow them. And that they never, ever make you feel like you have to shut up and defer to them.

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“Not voting is not a protest. It is a surrender.” – Keith Ellison

 

How to Vote If You Consider Yourself an Independent Thinker 

Most of the people I know have locked down on certain slogans that parade themselves not just as ideas but as full-blown ideological philosophies. Make America Great Again, Systemic Racism, Right to Life, Right of Choice, Black Lives Matter, the Green New Deal. And they vote on their adherence to those slogans. For them, the decision between Trump and Biden is black and white.

The pollsters know who those people are. They represent the vast majority of the population. But it will be the independently minded voters that will likely determine this election.

From The Washington Post:  Olivia Troye, who was part of the coronavirus task force, said recently that in her view the president has a “flat out disregard for human life.” Trump’s main concern, she said, “was the economy and his reelection.”

We weren’t at those meetings, so we have no way to judge her first characterization. But let’s assume that she’s right about the second and the third. (I’ve seen enough of his public statements to believe it.)

I am good with his concern for the economy. I think that should be our president’s primary concern in this regard. (We can talk more about this later.)

As to his single-minded desire to get reelected, why should that surprise anyone? For Trump, the political experience is a game of winning. That’s how he approached business. That’s how he frames all his ideas, appeals, and promises. In the entire population of our elected representatives, I can think of only one in my lifetime that was different. Ron Paul.

The nature of politics is about power. And the means to power is getting elected. People that want to become politicians want to play that game, which means they are essentially untrustworthy.

Which means: We shouldn’t vote for politicians based on what they say, but what they do. That’s a statement most people would ordinarily agree to.

But here’s the problem: That’s too difficult for most people. We are too busy with our quotidian lives to pay attention to the dozens of issues that are researched, discussed, and debated every day in the oval office or in the halls of the Senate or the Congress. And that is just at the national level. State and local government is just as complicated.

Since we can’t possibly understand particular issues well enough to make informed decisions about them, we do the next best thing. We elect politicians to represent our general sentiments about what kind of world we want to live in and give them the responsibility to do all the analysis and thinking.

Of course, they don’t have time for that sort of work either. They are too busy meeting with their supporters, raising funds, and campaigning to do any serious analysis of the problems. Studies have shown that most senators and representatives read only the equivalent of executive reports on the bills they are responsible for deciding.

That’s why, for me, the rule is:

* Assume that all politicians are not only willing to misrepresent their thoughts and feelings, but are actually very good at it.

* Assume that when it’s election time, politicians have no problem with prevarication, misdirection, and, if needed, outright lying about what they actually believe, think, and do.

* Pay zero attention to what candidates say during their campaigns.

* Spend what little time you have to finding out what they have actually done in the past. What actions they took in office. And how those actions tie into your idea of the world you want to live in.

If I were to decide between Trump and Biden based on what they are saying right now, I’d stay home and watch old movies on Election Day. Half of what they are saying I don’t believe because it contradicts what they actually did when they had power. And the other half sounds either senile or insane. (Take your pick.)

But when I look at what they have done – what Trump has done as president and Biden did over 47 years as a politician – the choice between them is not so very clear. To make my decision, I’m going to have to spend some time researching what they’ve actually done and then think about it.

 

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 “Life is long. Success is difficult. Passion is fleeting.” – Michael Masterson

 

Why “Profiting From Your Passion” May Be a Big Mistake

When I first retired at 39, I bought a half-interest in an art gallery, believing it would be the perfect hobby-like, retirement occupation. I pictured myself sitting amidst beautiful paintings, reading interesting books, and chatting with art lovers about Karel Appel and Jules Pascin.

Instead, I was thrust into a high-pressure selling situation. One in which my partner expected me to press friends and former colleagues into buying art. After six or seven months, I had to admit to myself that this experiment in mixing my love of art with the desire to profit from it had failed. So, I got out. It cost me a considerable sum of money, but it was worth it.

What I learned was that the job of running a business – even a “passion business” – is first and foremost about selling. And selling is always hard work.

It’s also mandatory and therefore ceaseless. If you are not continually finding new customers and reselling old ones, your business will shrink. A shrinking business is, of course, a dying business, and disappointing. But the death of a business you believed to be your life’s calling is downright depressing.

My fantasies about being a gallerist were shattered by the reality of having to constantly sell art. Not just to strangers, but to everyone I knew (one of my partner’s success secrets). All the things I loved about collecting art (as a hobby) were ground into mundanities by the application of them towards profit.

After a brief respite, I abandoned that retirement and went back into the business I had been in previously. But this time I told myself that I would change my idea about being in that business. It would no longer be about creating maximum profits, but about building a profitable business that I could be proud of.

Most of what I did on a day-to-day basis was the same. But I became more selective about the quality of our products and the satisfaction of our customers and less concerned about the bottom line.

The result was a surprisingly happy ending. I was able to enjoy the hours I spent working and – to my surprise – the business grew far beyond what it had been.

I can’t say for sure exactly why this happened. But I think one of the factors was that in my second go-round, I was constantly pushing to make all the Ps that make up a business better – the products, the protocols, the procedures, and the people. And my primary criterion for better wasn’t profit but something more personal. Something like, “If I make this change, will this improve the business in some way that I will like it more? In some way that will make me feel better about it? Prouder of what it is and is becoming?”

I don’t mean to imply this was a come-to-Jesus moment, that I returned to work as an entirely different person. It was much more subtle than that. I was still mostly about “ready, fire, aim.” I was still very much a pusher and a grower. And I still kept my eye on the bottom line. But I was no longer obsessed with growing profit. It was important to me – actually, mandatory. But I didn’t actually care whether we made 20%, 10%, or even 5%. I was secretly more interested in making the business into something that felt good to me.

The psychologist Jordan Peterson said that parents should raise their children to become the sort of adults they themselves would like and admire. This is sort of what I was doing – nudging the business along as it grew to become something I could like and admire.

I suppose you could say that with the gallery I tried and failed to convert my passion into profit, and with the business, I found a way to convert my profits into a passion.

For the Young and Still Hopeful…

A word to my younger readers: I’m not saying it’s impossible to turn your passion into a successful career.

I’m saying that, before you commit, you should think seriously about the fact that in trying to make a career of your passion there are four possible outcomes:

* You succeed and are happy in your success.

* You succeed but discover that success kills your passion.

* You fail and are emotionally defeated by your failure.

* You fail and are fine with your failing and move on to a happy life.

The most common advice you’ll hear from successful people about charting your career is, “Don’t walk towards it. Chase your dreams. Don’t listen to anyone that doubts you or warns you about the risk. Fly without a net.”

This advice is utter foolishness. It will not help you succeed. Nor will it make you happier if you do succeed.

Remember, generally speaking the people giving this advice are celebrities – the one in a thousand that were good enough and lucky enough to make a success of their passion. And they are usually dispensing this advice at award shows – where they are enthralled with their own wonderful selves.

Any parent or person of authority that would give such advice is either stupid or selfish or, more likely, both.

Here’s my advice: If you are young and have a particular passion, go for it. But do so only after you have mentally prepared yourself for the four possibilities listed above.

Start by identifying the psychological rewards your passion brings you now. Be honest and specific. Excitement? Engagement? Admiration? Validation?

Imagine yourself working relentlessly towards your goal, ignoring everything else in your life – friendships, family, marriage, even a bit of your self-respect. Would you be okay with that?

If your answer, “YES!,” imagine yourself 10 or 20 years into the future. You’ve achieved your goal. You have turned your passion into a profitable career. You have the status. You have the money. You have the validation you were looking for. But you’ve lost the excitement and the engagement. The work doesn’t fire you up anymore. Would you be okay with that?

Imagine, too, another scenario. Imagine that, after several of giving your all to making your passion profitable, you come to the realization that the prospects of success are approaching zero. Imagine that you look around and find an opportunity to start a different career – one that would almost certainly be profitable but for which you have no passion. Would you be able to make that change? Maybe with the idea that you could you put aside several hours a week to continue practicing your passion as a hobby? Would you be able to do that? Without second-guessing yourself?

Now imagine that while you are building your current career – a career that you had no passion for when you started – you begin to treat it like you are passionate about it. Imagine what you would do to convert it into something that would give you those feelings of excitement and engagement and admiration and validation that you now are hoping to get from your passion. How would that feel?

Imagine that after enjoying a profitable career that you found a passion for, and continuing to enjoy your current passion as a hobby, you retired from the first and spent your golden years engaged fully in the other.

How does that feel?

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The Big Interrupter 

 

Believe nothing you hear, and only one half that you see.” – Edgar Allan Poe

 

It’s generally agreed that Trump was uncontrolled in his debate against Biden and that he interrupted Biden constantly….

That’s certainly how I felt…

It’s common knowledge that our biases affect our particular judgements. They color our perceptions, not only in how we come to conclusions about general facts and phenomena, but also in how we interpret very particular facts and events.

One place where this is apparent is in the political arena. For as long as I’ve been watching political debates, I’ve noticed the tendency of watchers to view the same debate differently – with each group tending to downgrade the performance of the candidate of the opposing party and upgrade the performance of the candidate of their own.

Last week, at the first dinner party K and I have attended in months, the conversation turned to Trump. K, L, and G were recounting the many ways they see Trump as a vile person, as well as their hatred for the man. Actual hatred. For a man they’ve never met.

That didn’t surprise me. Nor did it outrage me. There is a great deal about Trump that I find interesting, but virtually nothing I actually like. I could never be friends with him. I’d never trust him as a business partner. But I do think he’s done some good for the country. Lowering taxes, reducing regulations, reforming the criminal justice systems, etc. His trade policy, on the other hand, is a disaster.

In response to their vitriol, I wanted to say: “Do you see how insane you are? That your hate for Trump has made you incapable of having rational thoughts when his name is invoked?”

Of course, I knew I couldn’t say that. But a moment later, when the conversation turned to the presidential debate, I realized I had an opportunity to say some version of that.

“He’s such a bully,” G said. “He interrupted Biden non-stop. He must have interrupted him a hundred times.”

The others agreed.

Coincidentally, I had just read something on that issue that very morning. Rather than repeat what I had read, which would have been dismissed summarily, I decided to ask them a question.

“We all agree that Trump interrupted Biden a lot,” I said. “But we know that Biden interrupted Trump, too. My question is:  What was the ratio? How many times did each candidate interrupt the other?”

L: “I don’t know. Maybe 40 Trump to 10 Biden.”

G: “It was more like 60 to 5.”

K: “It must have been 100 to 1.”

Let’s look at the actual numbers:

The Washington Post counted 71 interruptions for Trump and 22 for Biden, cleverly calling Trump the “Interrupter-in-Chief.”

Fox News counted 71 for Trump and 49 for Biden, reporting the RNC’s declaration of Trump as winner of the debate and Biden as being “too weak.”

I asked Amaru, our number-one researcher, to take a look and do his own count, based on two different definitions of “interrupt.”

  1. Interruptions that happened only when one candidate was speaking during the time he was given for “uninterrupted speech.” Amaru counted 55 by Trump and 31 by Biden.
  2. Any and all interruptions. This time, Amaru counted 84 by Trump and 69 by Biden.

What’s going on here?

It looks like The Washington Post and Fox were using two different definitions. And each definition was designed to produce a different outcome.

Here’s my takeaway – and I’ll keep it simple…

Facts are not always as factual as they might seem. They depend on the questions, assumptions, and definitions that are made while gathering them. This is true of every set of facts in every field of study. (I’ve been publishing information on health for 40 years, and I can tell you, with confidence, that many of the facts we take as scientific and therefore true are not facts at all, but consciously calculated findings meant to arrive at a desired conclusion.)

I can’t say exactly what criteria WaPo and Fox used to arrive at their very different numbers. But I can tell you that it didn’t take much – in our own little experiment – to dramatically affect our numbers.

So be skeptical of facts – especially when they are used to advance a political or commercial agenda. Keep an open mind. But stay skeptical. And be especially skeptical when the facts support the narrative of your choice.

As Amaru said, “If my mom, the person I trusted most in the world, told me that the stars had all turned into bright red and green sparkles, I’d still want to go out and take a look.”

 

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Big News About COVID-19 Testing That You Probably Don’t Know 

According to the October 16 edition of The Washington Post, new coronavirus cases are spiking in the United States and Europe, with 13 states reporting record-setting numbers of infections over the past week. That sounds scary. But, of course, what they didn’t report is the data on the fact that matters: deaths.

And the fact is that deaths from the virus have NOT increased since the beginning of September – either worldwide or in the US.

Here’s something else they should be reporting on…

The conventional wisdom regarding testing is that if you get a positive result, you have the virus, you are contagious, and you should self-quarantine until you are tested again to determine that the infection is gone.

But according to a study reported on in the NYT (of all places) on August 29, and then reported again by OANN, that may not be true.

In fact, it’s possible that 85% to 90% of the tests done this year in the US were faulty.

The problem was with the PCR test – the one we are all familiar with. The swab up the nose. If you’ve ever had this test, you know that the result comes back as positive or negative. Simple and clear.

But it’s not simple. Or clear.

Here’s why: Virologists have always known that the danger of both getting sick from a virus and also spreading it to others depends not on if you have the virus in you, but on how much of it you have.

I’ve suggested this in several past issues of the blog. (Check them out HERE, HERE, and HERE.) But since no one else was talking about it, I figured it was unimportant or I was wrong.

But it looks like I was right. And it is important.

It means that the protocol of quarantining everyone that tested positive was wrong. We should have quarantined only those whose level was above a certain threshold. We didn’t because we were operating on the assumption that any amount of coronavirus in a person was life-threatening. We weren’t measuring levels of the virus. It was a yes-no test, with a mistake built into it.

The mistake was this. Labs typically amplify the samples they get in order to reach a level where they can be detected. Standard practice is 30 amplifications. But in 85% to 90% of the PCR tests done this year, the amplifications were at 40, not 30. Which means it’s possible that 85% to 90% of people that tested positive were neither contagious nor at risk of getting severely sick and dying.

Here’s a link to the NYT article.

 

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