Remember – it was just 18 months ago – when Trump suggested that COVID-19 might have come from a lab in Wuhan?

Every major “news” outlet – including The New York Times, The Washington Post, and all 3 major broadcast channels (ABC, CBS, and NBC), not to mention CNN and MSNBC – “fact-checked” Trump’s charge and said it was baseless. A conspiracy theory!

And it wasn’t just the news media. Fauci and every other government health hack agreed.

Well, there’s been a fair amount of looking into it since then. And the new story from all of them – which they insist they’ve been saying all along – is that, yes, it is possible that the virus came from the lab. Some still believe it’s not likely. Some believe it’s highly likely. And some are in between.

The facts, at this stage are incomplete. The truth is not yet known. But what is certain is that the only conspiracy, if there was one, was the (perhaps unspoken) agreement among leftist media and politicians to attach the term “conspiracy” to what is now acknowledged to be a perfectly legitimate theory.

Russell Brand – a very smart and funny person – does a nice, energetic job of summing it all up here.

Continue Reading

The Good, the Bad, the Uncertain

Making Sense of Recent News Stories. Big and Small 

 

GOOD: “Mussolini” School Board Smack-Down

The COVID pandemic and the lockdowns imposed in response to it has given politicians and regulators all over the world a taste of real power. Nowhere is this more obvious than with local school boards that have been not only dictating COVID response measures, but also introducing values-based ideology into school curricula without parents’ permission.

There are dozens of videos you can watch on YouTube that show parents fighting back. This one is a special pleasure: An unbelievably arrogant school board administrator gets what’s coming to him. Click here.

 

BAD: Old Style Racism in America Is Real

Critical Race Theory postulates that America is systemically racist. Systemic means “of or relating to systems, such as laws and regulations.” There is no doubt that the Ivy League colleges are systemically racist against Asian-Americans, because they have actual regulations that limit the number of Asian-Americans they will accept. And there’s no question that the provision of the recently enacted American Rescue Plan relief program that gave preference to “farmers of color” over white farmers was systemically racist. Click here.

But I’ve yet to discover an example of a US law or regulation that is prejudicial against African-Americans or other people of color.

The problem with the systemic racism argument is not only that its logic is faulty. Or even that it perpetuates the problems it inveighs against. Like equating catcalling with rape, it directs the political debate and focus away from a real issue – actual, old-fashioned anti-Black racism, which exists in plenitude across the country.

Three examples:

 * A bank called the police on a man trying to cash his paycheck. Click here.

* A man at Walmart got questioned by the police about whether his children are really his. Click here.

* And here’s a guy that got arrested for being Black while taking out his trash. Click here.

 

UNCERTAIN: New World’s Record

Shortly after Veronica Ivy (born Rachel McKinnon), a Canadian philosophy professor and cyclist, won a world cycling championship, a British rapper named Zuby posted a video of himself casually breaking the British women’s dead lift record during a workout at his local gym.

Along with an image of his lift, he wrote:

I keep hearing how biological men don’t have any physical advantage over women. So watch me destroy the British Women’s dead lift record without even trying!

PS: (I identified as a woman whilst lifting the weight. Don’t be a bigot!)

Fair? Unfair? Is gender just a social construct? You decide. Click here.

 

GOOD: 12-Year-Old Girl Astounds Experts With Her Art

This is the sort of story that usually turns out to be a fraud, but it’s so much fun you want to believe it. Click here.

 

BAD: The Worst of the Worst in Baltimore 

I’ve been going to Baltimore regularly for 25 years. In that time, I’ve seen it go from not-so-bad to one of America’s top 10 Shithole Cities. (Along with Chicago, San Francisco, and Atlanta.)

The streets are potholed. The infrastructure is disintegrating. Crime – especially violent crime – has skyrocketed. Real estate values are down. Way down. And wealthy taxpayers and successful businesses are fleeing.

But that’s not the worst thing that’s happening in Baltimore. The worst thing is this: 41% of Baltimore’s high school students earn below a 1.0 GPA. Click here.

 

SCARY: FBI Urges Americans to Report Peers and Family Members  

On July 11, the FBI posted a tweet suggesting that Americans should monitor family members and peers for sinister “signs.”

The tweet read:

Family members and peers are often best positioned to witness signs of mobilization to violence. Help prevent homegrown violent extremism.

Then it provided a website for reporting people exhibiting “such signs.”

Continue Reading

This video is not for everyone. When I first watched it, I thought “typical Scandinavian highbrow nothingness.” But eventually, it got to me…

Continue Reading

Talent Is Overrated

By Geoff Colvin

228 pages

Originally published in 2008

If I were to list the 100 best non-fiction books I’ve ever read, Talent Is Overrated would not be included. Not because it’s a bad book, but because it presents an argument about achievement and personal excellence that I was already quite familiar with.

In fact, I developed a nearly identical thesis in postings I wrote for Early to Rise more than 20 years ago. But there’s been a lot more research into the subject since then. And in Talent Is Overrated, Geoff Colvin does a good job of summing it all up. Which is to say, if you have ever wondered why some people develop mastery in certain areas while most lag far behind, this is a book I would recommend.

In the fall of 2000, I was thinking about skill development – what it takes to get better at complex skills, such as writing or playing chess or competing in martial arts – and wondering (perhaps because I was frustrated by my own pace of learning) why some people develop faster and farther than others.

There were quite a few interesting studies that I could have looked at. Instead, I did what I often did back then: I allowed myself to believe that my own experience was more than enough to answer my own questions.

I did some retroactive calculations on how long it took me to learn how to speak passable French, to write a successful sales letter, and to earn my black belt in Jiu Jitsu. And I measured the time in hours…

To begin the process of improving yourself, you must accept the fact that you are less than you want to be. As beginners in practicing a skill, we are almost all incompetent. If you aren’t humble enough to acknowledge that, you will resist taking the baby steps you need to take to eventually rise to a level of competence and then mastery.

In addition to humility, you need persistence, the willingness to put in the hours it takes to achieve whatever level of skill you are aspiring to. Based on my experience, it takes about 1,000 hours of practice to become competent in a complex skill, and 5,000 hours to achieve mastery. (With a teacher to guide you, maybe less.)

But practice doesn’t mean simply repeating a skill over and over again. It means doing it with awareness and attention. If all you are doing is going through the motions, your chances of improving are small.

When I wrote this 20 years ago, I believed I was introducing a brand-new idea into the marketplace of such ideas. In fact, as I said, that field of inquiry had already been studied at some length. And there was a Swedish psychologist, Anders Ericsson, that had come to a conclusion that was similar to mine. (He postulated 10,000 hours for “world class mastery,” a somewhat higher standard than I had in mind.)

Geoff Colvin serves up the same idea in Talent Is Overrated – but with a slightly different timespan, lots of additional backup, and some interesting thoughts and speculations. His prose is clean, his examples are entertaining, and the argument overall is convincing.

Here are a few nuggets I highlighted as I read:

* “Many people not only fail to become outstandingly good at what they do, no matter how many years they spend doing it, they frequently don’t even get any better than they were when they started.”

* “Being good at whatever we want to do is among the deepest sources of fulfillment we will ever know.”

* “IQ is a decent predictor of performance on an unfamiliar task, but once a person has been at a job for a few years, IQ predicts little or nothing about performance.”

* “In math, science, musical composition, swimming, X-ray diagnosis, tennis, literature – no one, not even the most “talented” performers, became great without at least 10 years of very hard preparation.”

“Deliberate practice,” Colvin says, is the key to achieving world-class performance. And he points out that this is usually done with a teacher’s help. (“Anyone who thinks they’ve outgrown the benefits of a teacher’s help should at least question that view.”)

“The great performers isolate remarkably specific aspects of what they do and focus on just those things until they are improved,” he says, “then it’s on to the next aspect. Only by choosing activities in the learning zone can one make progress. That’s the location of skills and abilities that are just out of reach…. Identifying the learning zone, which is not simple, and then forcing oneself to stay continually in it as it changes, which is even harder – these are the first and most important characteristics of deliberate practice.”

Not surprisingly…

It is hard work.

It does not feel like fun.

 

Critical Reviews 

A few of the comments posted by readers on the GoodReads website:

* “One of, if not THE best book I read this year. Some of this book supported theories I’ve read in other books… yet Colvin presented the ideas backed with more research. This book reinforced my beliefs on the benefits of coaching. Colvin also pointed out specific ways to apply this knowledge to business.”

* “This book is overrated. After meandering for several chapters through what does NOT lead to high performance, Colvin finally gets around to arguing that the secret is ‘deliberate practice.’”

* “There are numerous good points about this book: good information based on solid scientific research; pretty good writing (not master level but close); cogent argument, and so on. That being said, this book leaves several threads hanging.”

Click here to watch a promotional video for the book by the author.

Continue Reading

What About Mozart and Tiger Woods? 

Mozart wrote music at age 5, gave public performances at age 8, and composed some of the world’s most beautiful symphonies before his death at age 35. A close look at his background reveals:

* His father, Leopold, was an expert music teacher who published a violin textbook the year Mozart was born.

* Leopold systematically instructed Mozart from at least age 3 (probably sooner).

* Mozart’s first four piano concertos, composed at age 11, contained no original music. He cobbled them together from other composers’ works. He composed his first original masterpiece, the Piano Concerto No. 9, at age 21. That’s a remarkable achievement, but by then he’d gone through 18 years of intense, expert training.

As Alex Ross, music critic for The New Yorker, says, “Ambitious parents who are currently playing the ‘Baby Mozart’ video for their toddlers may be disappointed to learn that Mozart became Mozart by working furiously hard.”

Then there’s Tiger Woods, who shot a 48 over nine holes at age 3, appeared in Golf Digest at age 5, broke 80 at age 8, and won six consecutive Junior World Golf Championships. The list goes on. At age 20, he dropped out of Stanford to turn pro, since his peers were no longer competition.

His early life parallels Mozart’s in many ways:

* Tiger’s father, Earl, was a teacher. (He became obsessed with golf in this 40s.)

* Earl gave Tiger his first metal club, a putter, at age 7 months. And he put a highchair in the garage so Tiger could watch him hit balls into a net. “It was like a movie being run over and over and over for his view,” Earl wrote.

* Earl started taking Tiger to the golf course before age 2, where they played and practiced regularly.

Yet when questioned about Tiger’s amazing career, both father and son give the same answer: hard work.

Continue Reading

Halston (2021)

Available on Netflix

Starring Ewan McGregor, Bill Pullman, Rebecca Dayan, and Krysta Rodriguez

Halston is a limited-series Netflix production about the life and death of Roy Halston Frowick (1932-1990), the man behind the Halston fashion franchise.

I’d heard mixed reviews about the series, but ever since I saw the Alexander McQueen exhibition at MOMA, I’ve had a surprising (to me) interest in fashion generally and particularly in the artists behind haute couture.

The Halston series didn’t wow me, but it held my interest throughout. And it got me thinking about it for days afterwards. Knowing nothing about the field, I was asking basic questions, like:

*  Considering the small market for haute couture, why does it even exist?

*  Is it like Formula One racing for auto manufacturers?

*  Marketing is a huge part of the business. How big a role does artistry play in success?

*  How important is the image of the designer?

*   Why do gay men – rather than women or heterosexual men – predominate in this field?

One of these days I’m going to do some research to find the answers. In the meantime, I’ll go to shows and exhibitions and watch biopics.

Halston is several stories in one – all worthy ones. It is the story of Halston, who got his first break when Jackie Kennedy wore one of his hats to her husband’s inauguration and then went on to achieve the American dream of fame and fortune through innovation and hard work. It is the classic modern tragedy of the artist who destroys himself through drugs and hubris. It’s also the story of the rise of American fashion to international stardom, and the story of the insanely promiscuous sexual environment whose epicenter was Club 54 in the 1970s and the scourge of AIDs that followed it.

Bonus: Lots of good performances, including great ones by Ewan McGregor as Halston and Krysta Rodriguez as Liza Minelli.

 

Critical Reception 

Click here to read a good review by Dana Feldman in Forbes.

You can watch the trailer here.

 

Continue Reading

Ready, Fire, Aim in Action 

My book Ready, Fire, Aim, which was published in 2008, made it to the Wall Street Journal and Business Week bestseller lists. John Wiley, the publisher, sold out several editions. It was successful, I think, because it explained, in the simplest terms, my beliefs about how to start and grow a successful business. The title expressed my idea: If you want to start a business, don’t waste time trying to get everything right. There are only a few things that really matter. Get those things “Ready” as soon as you can. Then pull the trigger. Once the cash starts flowing, you’ll be able to make the adjustments you need to make. For every business idea that fails because of poor planning, nine never get started because of too much planning.

That’s my entrepreneurial philosophy. There are others, I’m sure, that work as well. But for me – for my skillset and personality – Ready, Fire, Aim is not just the best way but the only way to go.

I’m revising Ready, Fire, Aim now for a second, 15-year anniversary edition. Much of it is the same, but I’ve added lots more that I’ve learned since 2008. One chapter, which I’m excerpting here, is about how I use the same Ready, Fire, Aim approach in other areas of my life. Today, I want to tell you about three of them: making a movie, producing a record album, and developing a botanical garden.

 

My First Ready, Fire, Aim Attempts at Filmmaking 

I always wanted to make movies. For many years, I did nothing but talk about that dream. But soon after I started writing articles for Early to Rise in 2000, I decided to start practicing what I was preaching in them.

For openers, I wanted to make a 30-minute documentary related to my involvement with Jiu Jitsu. I also had an idea in the back of my head for a feature-length film.

So I was Ready. And I Fired.

For the documentary, I partnered with a friend who, like me, was a Jiu Jitsu enthusiast and also had a desire to make movies. Paul had more free time, so the deal was that he would do the groundwork – setting up casting calls, arranging for equipment, and figuring out (very roughly) what our needs would be in terms of people and money – and we’d hire a professional production company to do the actual shooting.

The project officially began with a Saturday morning casting call for the three actors we needed. When I got there, 150 people were waiting to be interviewed. It took us most of the day to make our selections, and by Monday, Paul was working with our production company, following a quick-and-dirty storyline I had written on Sunday.

For two weeks, I spent every evening with Paul, reviewing the footage that had been shot and tweaking our plans as we went. At the end of that time, we had a documentary in the can. It wasn’t great, but it was done.

About a year later, Paul and I got together to turn my more ambitious dream – a feature-length film – into reality.

We had learned something about filmmaking from our documentary, but this time we were going to do the production work ourselves. Again, Paul did all the preliminary stuff, and I got to work on the script.

Paul and I took turns directing the actors. One of my sons did the camera work. Another son did the lighting. Two other young people – Ben, a friend of one of my sons, and Annabelle, the daughter of one of my friends – took care of such things such as sets, costumes, and charting continuity.

We shot half of the movie outdoors and the other half in a friend’s apartment, cleaning up at the end of every day so the place wouldn’t be in shambles when she got home from work.

The truth was that none of us – except for some of the actors – knew what the hell we were doing. But that didn’t stop us from doing it. Paul got us Ready, and we Fired. Had we not been willing to do that, I am 100 percent sure the movie would never have been made.

When the rough cut was done, I held a very private screening – just my youngest son, Michael, and two of his cousins. They watched it intently. And when it was over, I got the following three pithy critiques…

Michael: “On a scale of 1 to 10, Dad, I’d have to give that a zero.”

Eamon: “Let me put it to you this way, Uncle Mark… You will never be able to call another movie bad.”

Justin: “That’s not true. You will be able to say other films are bad. You’ll just have to say that yours was worse.”

“Oh well,” I thought, “who cares? I made a movie. And that’s something only one out of a thousand people who have that dream can say.”

Several years after that, I was inspired to make a documentary about an acquaintance of mine, Herschel Gordon Lewis. Herschel was a copywriter, but he had also been a filmmaker. And not just any filmmaker, but a legend in a certain genre that was popular in the 1970s and 1980s. He was known as The Godfather of Gore.

He agreed to do my documentary, but only if I helped him make a feature film that he had in mind. Three months later, we were shooting both movies.

The quality of the feature was classic Herschel Gordon Lewis – i.e., kitschy bad. The quality of the documentary was not bad. They both toured the horror-and-gore film festivals and even won some awards.

Several years after that, I made another feature film. It was a coming-of-age story about three young men that open a bar in a bad neighborhood. It was, as you probably guessed, semi-autobiographical. It was in several ways more important to me than my first two movies, and was a considerably larger endeavor. At one time, we had 100 people on the set. But we got it done on time and on budget. And six months later, it was making its way through the film festival circuit. It actually debuted in Liverpool and won best picture there!

I don’t consider myself to be a filmmaker. Nor do I believe that any of the films I’ve made is very good. But because of Ready, Fire, Aim, I was able to make half a dozen movies in a 10-year period, each a bit better than the previous one, and do it while I was still busy with my main career.

 

Using Ready, Fire, Aim to Produce a Record Album 

I applied Ready, Fire, Aim to another “artistic” project, too: producing a record album. I got this idea after meeting Joselito, a guitarist and singer who entertains people at Rancho Santana, our resort development in Nicaragua. (In my untutored opinion, Joselito sings Spanish ballads better than anybody on the planet.) After having a few too many margaritas at the bar one night, I promised to bring him to New York and make a recording of his music. When I came back a few days later, sober and preoccupied with property-development issues, he reminded me of my promise.

It took six months to secure a visa for Joselito to come to New York, but finding a partner for the project was easy. My son was starting his career in New York as a music producer and composer.

I blocked out four days on my calendar, and flew Joselito from Managua to the Big Apple. He had never been on an airplane before, had never been in a high-rise hotel, had never been outside his country, and had never made a recording. Spending those four days with him and my son was an extraordinary experience. And because my son actually knew how to make a good recording, we succeeded in producing an album I’m proud of.

That’s the great thing about using Ready, Fire, Aim to go after personal goals. You don’t have to worry about making a profit on your projects, as you do in business. You don’t even have to try to achieve some level of quality if you don’t want to. My goal in making my movies and that one album was simply to make them.

 

Using Ready, Fire, Aim to Create a Botanical Garden 

Sometime during the 40+ years that I’ve lived in Florida, I developed an interest in palm trees. One of the first things I learned, which surprised me, was that there are more than 2,500 species of palm trees, yet only 13 of them are indigenous to Florida.

That bit of data germinated in my mind. And then one day I mentioned to a real estate broker I work with that I had developed a fantasy of having my own palm tree botanical garden.

She jumped on it. And within a few months, she had found a 5-acre parcel of land with a small lake about a half-hour west of my house in Delray Beach.

The property was in such bad shape that it was selling for only $100,000 an acre, well below the going rate for the area.

I was Ready, and I Fired.

I started the acquisition process. And while that was going on, I was at the property every day, meeting with consultants, talking about my ideas, asking advice. By the time we closed on the property a month later, I had figured out the layout, including the principal planting areas, the walking paths, and where on the lake I’d locate a weekend cottage for my family.

The day after we closed, I had a dozen workers hauling away junk, clearing debris, deracinating invasive plants, and installing an irrigation system. A week later, I had a team dredging the lake.

Before the end of that first year, I had a 1,500-square-foot cottage on a lake that was clean and pretty, and about four acres of land with about 80 species of newly planted palm trees.

My little garden was looking pretty good. And then I met Paul Craft.

I’d been reading every book on palm trees I could get my hands on – and Paul was not only the author of several of them, he was cited as an expert in many of the others. I looked him up and discovered that he lived and worked in Florida, about 90 minutes north of my garden. I contacted him and invited him to see what I was doing.

I expected him to be impressed. Instead, he walked me around the garden, pointing out all of the amateurish mistakes I had made. But that didn’t turn me off. On the contrary, I knew that I had found the man who could help me with the Aiming.

A key element to making Ready, Fire, Aim work is that you have to know beforehand that, during the Aiming stage, you will be revising and sometimes even negating things you’ve already done. I was used to that. In fact, I was looking forward to it. Because for me, that is the best part of any project. It’s the time when you can go from kinda good to quite good and sometimes even to amazing.

So Paul began consulting for us. And in the years that have transpired since then, my little 5-acre startup fantasy grew to a 20-acre botanical garden that has more species of palm trees than any other botanical garden in the continental US.

And, as I write, this, we are just getting started. We’ve purchased an additional 5 acres, and we are bidding on another 5. If we can get those two this year, we’ll go for a final 10 acres next year.

 

If You Have a Personal Goal…

If you want to become something like a filmmaker or a writer or a painter, you should begin filming or writing or painting the moment you feel Ready. You don’t want to wait until you know a lot about how to film or write or paint. Because if you do, chances are you will never be what you want to be.

Do this now. Make a list of everything you have ever wanted to do or become. Arrange that list according to what is most important to you. Narrow your choices to three. Then pick one of the three.

Promise yourself that that goal, and only that goal, will be your top priority for the next 365 days. Acknowledge that everything else will be secondary.

Then make an outline of exactly what you have to do to become what you want to become. Don’t worry about being good at it. Don’t worry about being recognized. Do it because you have always wanted to do it… and because time is running out.

Continue Reading

Back from the sunny beaches of Rancho Santana on the Pacific Ocean to my house on the equally sunny beaches of the Atlantic Ocean in Delray Beach, I was only dimly aware that the Delta variant of the coronavirus was skyrocketing. You couldn’t tell from the airport or by looking at people on the streets or at Boheme Bistro, where we dined that first night. Unlike New York and California, Florida has maintained a policy of minimum mandates during the entire pandemic. We were in lockdown for some number of weeks when there was a legitimate fear that hospitals would be overwhelmed. That didn’t happen, and the lockdown was relaxed. Since virtually no businesses were shut down, Florida’s economy stayed strong these past 18 months and is now enjoying the benefit of a flood of people buying up houses and condos to move into or use as second homes.

Freedom is never free. There is always a cost. Sometimes it is paid in labor. Sometimes in risk. Sometimes in blood. I decided to check the data to see how my home state is doing compared to similarly large states that imposed (and still are imposing) severe sanctions.

Here are the scores so far:

Contracted COVID Cases (per 100,000) 

New York: 11,500

New Jersey: 12,000

California: 10,600

Florida: 14,300

Deaths (per 100,000) 

New York: 278

New Jersey: 300

California: 165

Florida: 190

 

What does that mean?

All three large-population states with the toughest lockdown requirements have done better than Florida, with about 30% fewer cases. But in terms of what really matters – deaths – New York and New Jersey did considerably worse than Florida with about 50% higher mortalities. California did somewhat better at 165/100,000 vs. 190/100,000 – about 16% less.

My prediction is that after all is said and done, including vaccinations, the difference in mortality between high-mandate and low-mandate states will be about the same. And if that turns out to be true, the only valid conclusion we will be able to draw is that mandates and lockdowns were not effective in reducing deaths. What will have been effective is simply distancing: Rural (less populated) states and countries will end up with fewer deaths per population.

You can check these data out yourself here.

Continue Reading

Introducing: Mr. Doodle

I want to introduce you to someone I’ve been following lately.

Sam Cox is only 23, but he’s fast becoming the new Keith Haring among contemporary art collectors in England. That’s in part because of his distinctive doodle-styled illustrations, but it’s also because of the self-deprecating persona he employs to promote his work.

Over the years, Cox has built an A-List of corporate clients, including MTV, Adidas, and Cass Art.

He’s not breaking new ground. He comes from a line of graffiti and street-art creators. And there’s no denying that he steals a lot from the legendary Haring, who died, at age 31, in 1990.

Like Haring, Cox’s illustrations are hieroglyphics comprised of personal symbols – repeated patterns that include shapes and squiggles, numbers and letters, forms and scribbling, and cartoons. His art draws from a social consciousness, but it is not dogmatic. The bulk of it is a lighthearted take on popular images, like this one:

Some is innocent, even juvenile or downright puerile, like this self-portrait:

But I have to say, my favorites have an edgy, ominous quality, with what seems to be a bit of social messaging, like this one:

I also like his doodle interpretations of iconic works of art, like this:

And this:

Cox began his career very recently, in 2017, by posting his doodles online. His rise to fame since then has been meteoric, as have the prices of some of his work. (One of his pieces, a large one, sold for $1.02 million at the Tokyo Chuo Auction.)

His installations are designed to give the viewer the feeling of walking into a shop and being assaulted by a thousand products lined up from floor to ceiling. He says he doesn’t care if people take his work seriously, since much of it isn’t serious, or even understand it. “I just want people to spend time looking at it,” he says.

You can watch him at work here.

Continue Reading