The End of the “Crypto Winter”? 

Bitcoin is down about 70% from its November highs. And Ethereum has dropped 80% from its peak to its bottom. I’ve said in past posts that I’ve always been skeptical of the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency market. But some crypto analysts are still optimistic. If you are worried about your cryptos and want a reason to hold on, click here for an argument from Ian King, editor of Strategic Fortunes, that predicts a comeback.

What’s Behind the Stock and Bond Market Sell-Off? 
The stock market, so strong just months ago, seems to be collapsing. Bond markets are down, too, from some of the highest levels ever recorded. How did they get so high in the first place? Bill Bonner provides a short, elegant explanation. Click here.
Investment Potential in China

If you’re worried about the US stock market and are considering foreign markets as a hedge, you will be interested in a recent recommendation by Alex Green, Investment Director of The Oxford Club. He’s talking China.

Here are some of his reasons:

* China is the world’s second-largest economy. It grew at an average annual rate of more than 9% from 1989 to 2022, and may overtake the US as the world’s largest as soon as 2030.

* Nearly 30% of global manufacturing happens in China. Eighteen of the world’s largest companies are headquartered there.

* It has a growing affluent class, with 5.3 million millionaires, the second-most behind the US. Its middle class is estimated at more than 400 million people.

And, says Alex, the Templeton Dragon Fund (NYSE: TDF) is a good way to play it.

Delicious 

Release date (USA): Jan. 14, 2022

Directed by Eric Besnard

Starring Gregory Gadebois, Isabelle Carre, and Benjamin Lavernhe

Available on various streaming services, including Amazon Prime

The Plot 

France, 1789, just before the Revolution. With the help of a young woman, a chef who has been sacked by his master finds the strength to free himself from his position as a servant and open what could be the first modern restaurant in France.

Delicious is certainly a “foodie” movie, along the lines of Chef and Julie and Julia. But it’s also the story of a prideful but talented man who manages to reinvent his career and his personal life through a relationship he develops with a woman who pesters him into taking her on as an apprentice as he tries to eke out a living in a rural inn, making meals for weary travelers.

What I Liked About It 

Great production and costume design, artistic cinematography, what feels like an authentic period drama, and a sweet and uplifting story.

Interesting 

One of the most enjoyable aspects of the film is the conceit that it is the story of how the French “restaurant” was invented. Apparently not true.

Critical Reception 

* “A sweet and savory tribute to food, pleasure, and égalité at a particularly piquant moment in French history.” (New York Times)

* “Delicious is far more than tasty eye candy. Strip back the inescapably gobsmacking palette, and you have an enveloping story of regret, freedom, and will set against the backdrop of pre-revolutionary France.” (James Hanton, Outtake Magazine)

* ”You could do a lot worse than this well-intentioned tale of mirthful mouthfuls and other appetites.” (Robert Abele, Los Angeles Times)

You can watch the trailer here.

The Stanley Hotel, Estes Park, Colorado 

On my list for a future Ford/Fitzgerald family reunion…

Opened in 1909, and a short trip from Denver, the landmark Colonial Revival building was the inspiration for the Overlook Hotel in Stephen King’s The Shining. Set against the backdrop of the Rocky Mountains and Lake Estes, it offers four types of accommodations:

* The Stanley, featuring the original historic hotel rooms

* The Lodge, with updated historic rooms and a boutique feel

* Aspire – modern apartment-style rooms with kitchenettes

* Residences – fully equipped 1- to 3-bedroom condominiums

Click here to check it out.

John D. Rockefeller on Perseverance

 “I do not think that there is any other quality so essential to success of any kind as the quality of perseverance.” – John D. Rockefeller

Burgeon: from the Old French for “to put out buds or sprout” – means to grow or increase rapidly; flourish. As I used it today: “[The term ‘cultural appropriation’] did not catch on until the mid-1980s, when it popped up as a minor tenet of the burgeoning critique of Western colonialism.”

Why I keep doing what I do: 

“THANK YOU for your inspirational books. I have read The Reluctant Entrepreneur, Ready, Fire, Aim (many times), and The Pledge. Yes! You planted the Entrepreneur Bug in me. Can you please help me answer one question? How do I know if I’m an Entrepreneur?…. I’ve tried many businesses. But honestly, I’m not very good at it.” – SV

My Response: My first suggestion would be to reread those books and compare the advice given to what you have actually done. I guarantee you that there will be major differences. But because you’ve been kind enough to buy and read those books, I’m going to give you a brief, six-step protocol that – if you follow it assiduously – will virtually guarantee your success:

  1. Pick a business in an industry that is currently growing. The faster the better.
  2. Get a job in that industry. Preferably on the “revenue” side of the P&L ledger (rather than the “expense” side. Great options are as a junior marketer, salesperson, or copywriter.
  3. Work your ass off to become a valued employee, while learning the business from the inside out.
  4. While you work your way up, make contacts in the industry within and without your business.
  5. When you are ready to go out on your own, test yourself by setting up something on the side while you keep your main job. (Yes, you will be working 60 hours a week!)
  6. Once the side business is making enough to replace your current income, invite your boss to be your partner. If he declines, wish him well and become his competitor.

“Do you have any words of advice you would be willing to share with a newbie to the content marketing/copywriting world?” – KN

My Response: I have thousands of words of advice. They are contained in the books I wrote about writing and copywriting – The Architecture of Persuasion, Great Leads (cowritten with John Forde), and Copy Logic! (with Mike Palmer) – and in the basic program for copywriting that I wrote and AWAI publishes.

I was talking to a book-club friend last night about how pace – the speed at which a story is told – is so important in the success of fiction and drama. By sheer coincidence, soon after that discussion, another friend sent this clip of Norm McDonald telling a very standard, very juvenile, and otherwise not particularly funny “Dirty Johnny” joke. Except it worked brilliantly because of his genius for pacing. Check it out.

In Search of Meaning, Redux

Part II: Worse, Then Good

After an evening of anxiety and self-flagellation, I decided that K had the right perspective. My stolen bag and its contents could be replaced. Easily. And the loss of income, though substantial, could also be replaced in time with some energy and effort.

So, no, I would not book the next flight back to the US to deal with it in familiar surroundings. I would ask Gio to rush me a replacement computer. And until it arrived in Greece, I would do as much work as I could typing with one finger.

Gio bought one (pink was the only available color) the next morning, and shipped it via FedEx Express that afternoon. It would arrive at our B&B in Naxos in four days, the agent told her.

Meanwhile, we flew to Mykonos to meet our friends (who were already on the boat) and embark on our 10-day exploration of the beautiful Cyclades islands. The boat, a catamaran, was largish and luxurious. Our bedroom was small but comfortable. The captain and his mate were welcoming. And our first meal on board was satisfying.

We docked at Paros the following day and set out to explore the island. Stepping down off the gangplank, I felt a sudden, sharp pain in my left foreleg, at the point where the Achilles tendon ties into the calf muscle. Having had two ruptures of the Achilles tendon before, I could tell that this was a minor tear, one that would eventually repair itself. But it left me half-hobbled and unable to walk at a normal gait. Luckily for me, one of our friends, Roger, had an arthritic knee that was acting up. So, we limped along together, behind the others.

Like many seeming setbacks, our mutual handicap had a silver lining. Roger is, among other estimable accomplishments, an art historian with an encyclopedic knowledge of ancient art. I was able to take advantage of our situation by having him regale me with arcane details about the archeological sites we would be seeing, and it was good for Roger, too. He had a captive audience, someone who genuinely appreciated his expertise.

Thus, our onshore excursions were gratifying. And when we were on the boat, I spent every idle moment corresponding with my business partners on current projects and writing my twice-weekly blog posts. In addition, I spent several hours on a strategy for managing my now-reduced cash flow – a Plan A, a Plan B, and a Plan C (optimistic, realistic, and worst-case). This, I knew, was necessary not just for practical reasons, but also as a psychological palliative for my recent misfortunes. (Longtime readers know that I believe the best way to overcome a setback is to (a) accept it stoically, and (b) set to work immediately on a recovery plan.)

These activities had the hoped-for effect. My mood improved quickly, enabling me to participate in our common adventure without complaint. That, in turn, allowed K and our friends to enjoy their vacation without the unnecessary and undeserved burden of catering to a malingerer.

The island tours were, as I explained in the June 17 issue, terrific, exceeding my highest expectations. But on the penultimate day of our journey, sailing from Santorini to Naxos, the captain informed us that the seas would be choppy and that the trip, which normally takes five or six hours, would likely be “a bit” longer. As someone who is susceptible to seasickness, I was not happy to hear this. But okay. I would take my Dramamine as prescribed and be fine.

Oh wait! I remembered that the Dramamine was in the pilfered bag! And the seas were worse than the captain had imagined. We were sailing into a perfect storm. Within an hour, I was retching off the side of the boat. And the five or six hours turned out to be 10.

If you have ever been seasick to the point of vomiting, you know that the misery you feel extenuates time in a way that can only be described as torture. I spent the next nine hours curled up and face down on the deck, wiping bile from my lips and resisting the temptation to hurl myself off the side of the boat and drown.

Finally, finally… we arrived at the port. I hobbled off the boat, lay down on a park bench in a nearby plaza, and stayed there until my stomach settled and the vertigo receded. We took a taxi to our B&B, where I slept for nearly 10 hours. I woke, feeling fine, and enjoyed the next three days in Naxos, a wonderful seaside city in every respect.

Of course, the laptop Gio had sent me did not arrive at the B&B while we were there. It was held up in customs, and was then forwarded to Athens, where we were spending another several days. It did not arrive while we were in Athens either. And so, I had no choice but to have it returned from whence it came in Florida.

Our trip to Greece completed, we said our goodbyes and K and I took a plane to Rome. As I said in the June 28 issue, Rome was, as always, marvelous. The hotel K had booked was five stars. The city was alive and thriving. And our week there, just the two of us, was a happy ending to a journey that had begun so badly.

So, no, I don’t feel like I was victimized by the robbery. Or by the injured muscle. Or by the customs officials or by the fact that my credit cards didn’t work in Rome’s ATMs. I feel like my misfortunes had been due, at least in part, to imprudent decisions on my part. And I was happy to have gotten beyond them.

Move Over Tesla! 

Elon Musk’s Tesla is no longer the king of electric vehicles, according to the July 5 edition of Great Stuff. “That crown now belongs to BYD Motors,” the publication asserted, and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway controls a 7.7% stake in it. “It’s very telling that the Oracle of Omaha didn’t take that same stake in Tesla.”

In Q2, Tesla delivered 254,695 vehicles. In the same period, BYD’s deliveries stood at 355,021. Take a look at this chart from Investor’s Business Daily:

In fairness, BYD sells hybrids, not pure EVs. But as was pointed out by Graham Conway in the  TED Talk we linked to in Tuesday’s issue, there is good reason to believe that hybrid vehicles will endure, including the fact that they are currently more eco-friendly than EVs. (If you missed it on Tuesday, click here.)

Bad Ideas! 

Two of the most destructive ideas that took root in the 20th century – communism and psychoanalysis – were cooked up by two highly educated academics.

Karl Marx studied law and philosophy at the universities of Bonn and Berlin. His father was a lawyer, and his mother came from a prosperous business family that later founded Philips Electronics.

 

And Sigmund Freud not only had a medical degree from the University of Vienna, he was also an accomplished reader of literature and a proficient speaker/reader of German, French, Italian, Spanish, English, Hebrew, Latin, and Greek.

In the first two decades of this century, the number of equally bad ideas has been great. And like communism and psychoanalysis, many of these ideas have, at their core, worthy insights into the many frailties of human nature. As such, they have a strongly humanistic appeal.

As a result, and like their 20th century predecessors, these newish bad ideas sprouted quickly in the fertile soil of elite universities; bloomed among wealthy, liberal-arts-educated trust-fund dilettantes; spread like weeds among the artists, actors, and writers suckled by the wealthy elite; and were finally adopted as incontrovertible by large swaths of the mainstream press.

Here are a few of the contenders:

  1. American Exceptionalism
  2. Gender Theory
  3. Cultural Appropriation
  4. Identity Theory (including Critical Race Theory and White Privilege)
  5. Language as Violence
  6. The disfunction of Male Hierarchy and Toxic Masculinity
  7. Cancel Culture
  8. Research Justice
  9. Recovered Memory Syndrome
  10. The War Against Fossil Fuels
  11. The War Against Poverty
  12. Equality as a Social Good

I’ve touched on many of these bad ideas in past issues. In future issues, I’ll discuss them, one at a time, in detail. I’ll begin next week with one of my favorites: the “immorality” of Cultural Appropriation.