Why Am I Falling Behind?

Since my stroke in September, I’ve been losing ground on my to-do list. One example: I have three email inboxes. A red-flagged one that I try to answer within 24 hours. An orange-flagged one that I try to answer within seven days. And a yellow-flagged one that I try to answer within 30 days. I am grievously behind on all of them. My red inbox now holds 80 to 90 items, instead of the 15 to 20 I was always able to manage. My orange inbox, which used to hold 60 to 70 items, now has more than 10 times that number.

What the heck is going on?

I was worried that my brain was slowing down. That it was taking longer for me to complete tasks. But it didn’t feel like that was true. So I looked at my log and my journal, and realized that I’ve been sleeping or napping an extra three hours a day. That’s a better reason for my lack of productivity than a retarding brain, but it’s not comforting.

I asked my doctors about it, and they seemed to think that sleeping more could be a natural response to the “trauma” of the stroke and surgery. But that didn’t feel right either.

I told one of my trainers about it, and he asked me if I had been taking any new medications. “I don’t think so,” I said. But then I remembered. I was taking a statin. He looked up the research on statins and, sure enough, he found that one of the big side effects is chronic and/or acute fatigue.

Now that felt right to me. For the past decade or so, I’d resisted taking statins to reduce my overall cholesterol levels because I was aware that they produce a variety of unwelcome side effects. And because – although they are very good at lowering cholesterol numbers – they didn’t seem to extend lifespans for users. But after the stroke, I was more “open minded” about statins. My doctors wanted me to take them. And the side effects I knew about were not especially frightening.

But this fatigue thing… it may be a deal breaker. I’ve got too much to do. Too many miles to go. I’m not willing to give up three hours of work per day for the nebulous promise of reducing my chances of getting heart disease.

My plan is to ask my primary doctor about lowering my dosage or trying other statins to see if either of those tactics help. In the meantime, I’m going to do more research, which I’ll share with you.

Click here to read a report on the study that my trainer found.

And click here and here and here for some others.

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More Data on the Next (Biggest?) Financial Crisis

I got into the business of publishing economic and investment advice in the early 1980s. Since then, I’ve witnessed four significant “crises.”

* The stock market crash of 1987

* The dot-com crash of 1995

* The real estate, banking, and liquidity crisis of 2007

* The COVID-19 government lockdown crisis of 2020 and 2021

Of these four, only the crash of 1987 surprised me. And the market bounced back relatively quickly, so I didn’t have a chance to learn anything from it. The dot-com crash seemed inevitable, given the crazy P/E ratios for dot-com stocks. The only question was: When? The real estate bubble was predictable in the same way. Prices were hyperinflated. They couldn’t possibly land. I was able to avoid getting hurt on that one by sticking to a simple, fundamental rule I use for investing in real estate. (I’ve written about it many times. Most recently, here.) The economic cost of the COVID lockdown was also easy to predict. But there was so much fear around it that nobody wanted to talk about it.

Recently, I’ve been feeling like we are about to go through another financial crisis. And this time, it won’t be short-lived, like the 1987 crash. Nor will it be restricted to segments of the market, like 1995 and 2007. This time, I’m betting it’s going to be across all investment classes and across the globe. And to make matters worse, it’s feeling like it’s going to be a long and debilitating period of stagflation.

I hope I’m wrong. Here’s a chart I found last week (from Agora Confidential) that is worrying.

This chart offers insight into the amount of global capital sloshing around to purchase bonds and stocks. The Nordea global liquidity indicator – which signals a sharp contraction – typically leads the MSCI (corporate earnings) with a lag.

The MSCI signals that a slowdown is coming for corporate profits into 2023 and 2024. (Mainly as the impact of central bank rate hikes start to affect the global economy.)

If valuation comprehension was the story of 2022… looks like the story of 2023 will be earnings compression. Barring a dramatic pivot by the Federal Reserve, we can expect more volatility and lower stock prices in the year ahead.

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A More Threatening Threat

Early in December, hoodlums shot down power lines in two major power stations in Moore County, NC. The result: 45,000 homes were without power for close to a week. Schools were shut down. Many businesses were closed. Traffic lights were down. Emergency shelters were opened.

The governor declared a State of Emergency, and the Dept. of Homeland Security issued a bulletin stating that “the United States remains in a heightened threat environment” and warning that “lone offenders and small groups” may commit acts of violence on various targets, including critical infrastructure.

Given what I’ve been reading lately about the fragility of the US power grid, it seemed right to me that Homeland Security should be looking at the possibility that this sort of thing could happen. It’s good to know that at least one government agency is focused on this sort of threat, rather than the FBI and DOJ’s campaign against “domestic terrorism” coming from parents that don’t want critical race theory and gender studies being taught to their school children.

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Bari Weiss

If you aren’t familiar with her already, meet Bari Weiss. She is a writer I’ve been following for many years. I first noticed her when she was writing for The New York Times, and continued to read her when she wrote for The Wall Street Journal. She now puts out a digital periodical called The Free Press and hosts the podcast “Honestly.”

I always found her thinking to be smart, clear, and fearless. And although I agree with her opinions only about 60% of the time, I continue to follow her because she has that rare ability (rarer than ever in today’s politically hyper-charged world) to think rationally and independently about big, important issues and ideas.

One example: In the Dec. 20 issue of The Free Press, she published an essay titled “Actually, Color-Blindness Isn’t Racist,” by Coleman Hughes, host of the podcast “Conversations With Coleman.” You can read it here.

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Can Vaccines Prevent Cancer?

Amid all the questions about the effectiveness (and the side effects) of COVID vaccines, there is hope that new vaccines may be able to treat cancer.

Innovations like genome sequencing have allowed scientists to take a closer look at tumor cells and their abnormalities. And that’s helping them design vaccines aimed at much more specific targets, resulting in formulations that have promise.

Read all about it here in this piece from National Geographic.

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New Year Resolutions: Making Some Positive Changes in 2023

James Clear is a bestselling author and generally smart person who knows a lot about habits – how they are made and how they can be changed. In this interview with Peter Attia, (another smart person I follow), Clear talks about some of his most important findings.

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Güeros 

Written and directed by Alonso Ruizpalacios

Starring Tenoch Huerta Mejía and Sebastián García

Released Feb. 7, 2014

Currently available on various streaming services, including Netflix and Amazon Prime

Güeros is the story of three restless teenagers searching for a folk-rocker during the Mexican capital’s student strike. I picked this movie because I saw that it got four stars on RogerEbert.com. It is beautifully filmed, expertly acted, and emotionally engaging.

Critical Reception 

* “Right off the bat, Güeros captures three superlatives from this reviewer: Best debut feature I’ve seen in the last year, best Mexican film in recent memory, and best (black and white) cinematography since Pawel Pawlikowski’s equally stunning but very different Ida.” (Godfrey Cheshire, RogerEbert.com)

 * “Güeros is like a flip-book history lesson, one that evokes the pain and the comedy – the pop, the politics, the tedium, and the momentousness – of a particular moment in the endless, cyclical chronicles of youth and disillusionment.” (A.O. Scott, New York Times)

* “Güeros is brutal, ironic, madcap, and grim.” (Peter Keough, Boston Globe)

You can watch the trailer here.

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Seven Books to Help You Build Wealth in 2023 

Sean MacIntyre is a smart guy. He’s also a polymath. I mentored Sean early in his career. Now, he’s the publisher of DIY Wealth, a website that provides guidance on entrepreneurship, investing, and other aspects of building wealth. (You can sign up for it here.)

In this video, he talks about his favorite books on entrepreneurship and wealth building. If wealth building is on your to-do list for 2023, these recommendations are a good place to start. (Including, by the way, the antepenultimate one on his list!)

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Penultimate (pih-NUHL-tuh-mit) – from the Latin for “almost last” – refers to the next to the last… anything. Antepenultimate refers to the next to the next to the last. As I used it above: “If wealth building is on your do-do list for 2023, these recommendations are a good place to start. (Including, by the way, the antepenultimate one on his list!)”

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Palmyra or “Toddy” Palm

Also known as Daub Palm, Tala Palm, Ice Apple Palm, and Wine Palm

Binomial name: Borassus flabellifer

The Palmyra is one of my favorite palm trees. We have half a dozen great specimens at the gardens. It is native to the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. The blooms of the tree develop into nine-inch fruits, each containing one to three seeds. The sugary fruit is used in many Bengali sweet dishes. And “toddy,” the sap of the tree, is often fermented to make alcoholic beverages, including palm wine and an early version of the traditional yuletide drink that we know as the “hot toddy.”

For more information about Paradise Palms, click here.

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