Trump’s Truth Social’s multi-million-dollar valuation defies logic, some analysts say. 

“No shit,” says Garrett Baldwin in his March 26 issue of Postcards from the Florida Republic.

He goes on…

“Is Truth Social ‘expensive,’ ‘overvalued,’ and ‘divorced from fundamentals?’

“Damn right it is, but this isn’t a ‘Trump’ thing. It’s the truth for a huge number of public companies, particularly in Wall Street’s darling tech sector.

“What you say about Truth Social, you could also say about Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), or pretty much any of the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven.’

“There’s a huge problem with valuation issues in this market…”

I think Garrett is right. There is a frenzy of exuberance among stock investors about certain sectors of the stock market, including cryptocurrencies and anything related to AI. At the same time, there is a massively growing interest in trading – even day trading – that is making me and other conservative investors nervous.

You can read the rest of what he says here

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Biden’s Dangerous Game at the UN 

In the United Nations last week, the Biden administration softened its support of Israel once again – this time by dropping its threat to veto a resolution calling for “an immediate ceasefire [in Gaza] for the month of Ramadan leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire” without requiring a release of hostages.

If you know anything about the UN, you know that it has a long history of hostility to Israel. It is hardly the venue where the US should get involved when it comes to its most important ally in the Mideast.

As stated in a recent WSJ editorial:

Mr. Biden’s public criticism and distancing from Israel signals to other nations that they can go even further and the US likely won’t oppose it. Will he condemn Canada’s grandstanding decision this week to stop selling arms to Israel? Crickets from the White House so far. The President’s fading support for Israel is a message to all American allies that the US can’t be trusted if their cause runs afoul of the Democratic Party’s left wing.

Read more here.

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he Legal Tactics to Jail or Bankrupt Trump Before the Election Are Failing. What Can Anti-Trumpers Do Now to Keep Him from Running and Possibly Winning?

On March 4, as you know, the US Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the State of Colorado could not proceed with its effort to keep Colorado residents from voting for Trump by taking him off the ballot. This was a win for pro-democracy thinkers, but a painful blow to all who wanted him eliminated from America’s future by any means necessary.

According to the WSJ:

The Court struck down a Colorado Supreme Court ruling claiming that because Trump had engaged in “insurrection” on Jan. 6, 2021, he would not be allowed on the Colorado presidential ballot. The court set aside the question of whether Jan. 6 was an insurrection, and simply ruled that states cannot choose whether to disqualify candidates for federal office as insurrectionists.

The ruling was not a surprise to students of the Constitution because it was based on an interpretation of a clause that was so strained that even the “Liberal” justices couldn’t get behind it.

The NY Civil Fraud Case 

As for the civil fraud case brought by NY Attorney General Letitia James and adjudicated summarily by Judge Arthur Engoron (both Democrats) against Trump (for supposedly overvaluing his collateralized properties’ bank loans), I’m 100% sure it will be reversed on appeal.

Like the Colorado ruling, it is so wrong on so many levels, including the facts that his valuations were actually understated, and that the banks, which were in theory the injured parties, made millions off the loans.

And there is another reason, which, though rarely discussed, tops them all. If NYC’s novel interpretation of the banking law were enforced, billion-dollar development projects (which are the driving force of real estate values in every city in America) would screech to a halt almost overnight.

The other cases against Trump are the Georgia “election interference” case, the federal Jan. 6 “insurrection” case, and the federal classified documents case. Taken all together, they accuse him of no fewer than 91 criminal offenses.

The Racketeering Case 

The Georgia case is quickly falling apart in soap opera fashion before our eyes. Fani Willis, the prosecutor who became a national figure by bragging about her intent to put Trump in jail, has just narrowly survived a judgement that would have taken her off the case. But to stay on, she had to fire Nathan Wade, her married boyfriend and the lead prosecutor. And this, as the judge said in his ruling, will leave a bad “odor” on the case for the prosecution.

The Classified Documents Case 

As for the classified documents case, it was a Hail Mary effort from the beginning, which became even less likely to cause Trump any damage as the very similar case against Biden was brought to light. Even if the government sanctions Trump for some piece of the complex of charges, it is inconceivable that it will inhibit his ability to continue as his party’s candidate or make a difference in the vote itself.

The Incitement to Insurrection Charge 

That leaves what is, in my mind, the most absurd and unlikely case against Trump: that he incited the “insurrection” of Jan. 6.

First, the case will not succeed because the event was not, by any legal or reasonable definition, an insurrection.

Second, because the basis of the charge is a clear and purposeful misreading of the Constitutional amendment it is based on, which would almost certainly be seen as such by the Supreme Court.

Third, because Trump called for a “peaceful protest,” not an insurrection.

And finally, because it’s recently been documented that he explicitly called for the city’s Democratic leadership to protect the Capitol and its environs by ordering the National Guard to bring in ten thousand guardsmen to prevent rioting and violence. (A call that was inexplicably ignored.)

So, on my scorecard, the Democratic Party’s attempts to get rid of Trump through legal warfare looks to be a 4 out of 4 win for Trump.

What now? 

What can the Anti-Trump Party, which currently represents about a third of American voters, do to defeat the Pro-Trump Party, which comprises a slightly larger number of voters?

What can the Anti-Trump Party do to keep the foul-mouthed, orange-haired, irrepressibly annoying former president from running in November and possibly becoming our next president?

It’s clear now that any further legal attacks won’t work.

Since the first indictment against Trump in April of last year, every poll I’ve found shows Trump’s support rising, while Biden’s numbers have edged downward.

(Averaging the data I’ve accumulated from a half-dozen of the most “respectable” polls, Trump’s support in April was about 45% and stands at 47% now. Biden’s promising 49% support in April is down to 42%.)

I was wrong. 

If you’ve been reading this blog, you know that had I been running the Democratic Party, Biden would have by now given up his run for the 2024 election in favor of endorsing Gavin Newsom. In fact, I predicted it would happen sometime between Thanksgiving and the new year.

That didn’t happen. And since Biden managed to successfully read the teleprompter during his State of the Union address, it looks like – short of Biden getting seriously ill – Newsom is out and the Biden/Harris ticket is locked in.

Thus, American voters in November will be choosing between 78-year-old swaggering Donald Trump and 80-year-old lost-in-space Joe Biden.

So, who is going to win? 

Most presidential elections since I was old enough to pay attention to them have been decided by fear, rather than hope or inspiration.

The 2016 election was, to a large extent, a contest between the fear of illegal immigrants versus the fear of deplorable American citizens. In that election, the fear of illegal immigrants was stronger.

The 2020 election was largely a contest between the fear of the Black Lives Matter movement and the fear of COVID. COVID won.

I see the 2024 election as a rhetorical contest between five fears: one that has already worked once, another that has failed once, a third fear about inflation, a fourth fear about culture, and a fifth that is too weak because nobody will believe it.

The Democrats seem to be betting all their chips on the one hard-to-believe accusation: that Trump will become a “tyrant” in his second term and put an end to US democracy.

The Republicans have four fears to stoke.

First, they will double down on stoking the fear of illegal immigration again – this time strengthened by the more than 8 million migrants that have crossed the border since Biden took office.

Second, they will argue that Biden’s social justice policies, supported by liberal judges and DAs around the country, are allowing the illegal immigrants and other law breakers to be released from jail without bail and get back to what they were arrested for: cleaning out retail stores, hijacking cars, and mugging and murdering law-abiding citizens.

Third, they will remind American voters of a fact that the Democrats can’t contradict: The economy is weaker now than it was when Biden took office.

And for the cherry on top, the Republicans will blame Biden for unleashing a new social culture of trangenderism, institutional racism, and White privilege that will destroy traditional American culture.

Again, if I were heading up the Democratic reelection campaign, I’d be looking very hard for several more ideas – ideas that are stronger than the fear of tyranny under Trump – if they want to win in November.

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Chart of the Week: The Effect of Interest Rate Changes 

Most Americans, including college-educated Americans, know little about economics and next to nothing about how the decisions made by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve affect the US economy. 

I was as ignorant as the next person until I went to work for a publishing company that specialized in following, interpreting, and predicting the investing markets. That was forty years ago. Since then, I’ve read reams of book chapters and essays on economic history and theory, as well as dozens of ideas about how to invest in the financial markets according to the actions of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

My level of understanding on this subject is still very basic. But I can say that I have come to a place where it is clear to see that fiscal and monetary policies do have big and undeniable effects on the financial markets, including not just stocks and bonds, but also every other asset class.

I have also learned that this is only a part of what one needs to know to make wise investment decisions. And that’s because the US economy, as large as it is, is nevertheless just a part of the considerably larger economy of the world.

This week, Sean presents us with several charts that track Japan’s fiscal and monetary policies and demonstrates, quite convincingly in my mind, why astute investors must understand what is going on there. – MF 

The media has been hanging on every word Jerome Powell utters. Investors want to know when interest rates will decrease.

But while this has been happening, there’s been a major development in global monetary policy that hasn’t generated enough attention.

Most developed nations increased rates to curb inflation, but the Bank of Japan was the last holdout.

On March 19, that changed.

In the wake of higher inflation and a weakening yen, the Bank of Japan raised their interest rates for the first time in 17 years.

Japan is usually late to the party when it comes to hiking interest rates.

Just as US central bankers are terrified of repeating the monetary policy mishaps of the 1970s that triggered a decade of stagflation…

Japanese central bankers do not want to repeat the monetary policy mistakes that cast a frost on their economy in recent decades.

This policy change is going to have a series of complex ripple effects through the global economy.

For one, the yen carry trade that has been generating huge amounts of money for US institutional investors will become less lucrative.

In a carry trade, investors borrow in a currency with a low interest rate and invests in a higher-yielding currency. A 3-month dollar-yen carry trade can earn as much as 5% annualized.

Secondly, because Japan tends to be late to hike rates, their monetary policy decisions are a bit of a “canary in a coal mine.”

For the past 30 years, their interest rate hikes have inevitably preceded global economic recessions.

Is this a clear sign that global economic catastrophe lurks around the corner?

I doubt it. It could be months or years before we feel the chilling effects of monetary policy changes.

But it is a sign that we should continue to be incrementally more cautious.

– Sean MacIntyre

Check out Sean’s YouTube channel here.

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The End of Western Culture 

Disparate Impact: Do You Know What That Means?

In this essay, conservative political commentator Heather Mac Donald bravely articulates the facts about the concept of “disparate impact” and how it this seemingly innocuous phrase represents a way of thinking that is fast diminishing the requirements and standards of virtually every educational and professional association in America.

It’s impossible to read her argument without wondering: Can lowering our standards for achievement in academia, the professions, and business possibly make America a better, stronger, and wealthier country?

Trends in Wokeness 

It’s History… but It May Offend Your Children

One of the cornerstones of Woke/Intersectionality Thinking is that students have a right to be protected from discussions and/or presentations on history or social issues that make them feel uncomfortable. This, of course, is anti-intellectual as well as anti-educational – but never mind, we must protect the next generation’s feelings.

Accordingly, the largest school district in Virginia just sent out a notice to parents of seventh graders, saying that their children can, if they want, skip a presentation about the Holocaust from a Holocaust survivor. They noted that their “diverse district includes students with ‘different experiences.’” And they claimed that the opt-out was intended primarily to protect Jewish students. Yeah. Right.

Click here.

The Dangerous Hypocrisy of Woke Linguistics

I’ve been reading Freddie deBoer for only about a year now, and yet I haven’t been able to guess in which field of study to locate him. He writes regularly about culture and the arts, and particularly contemporary music. Which had me thinking for a while that he was a PhD in musicology at some university, with a curiosity about other topics when they crossed into contemporary culture.

Since then, I’ve read essays by him on economic and political theory, economic and political news, social philosophy and social activism, the state of the union, the state of the world, and the state of contemporary thinking. And he always has something interesting to say.

I don’t know how he does it.

I do have one small criticism that I hope he will pay attention to. He is frequently willing to lead his good essays with titles/headlines that sound academic and dry, if not downright boring.

Take this essay, published on March 20, which is titled “Descriptivism Self-Negates on Multiple Levels.”

Who would want to read an essay with a title like that? I read it because I’m probably the one reader in a hundred that understands what descriptivism and prescriptivism means. And probably one in a thousand that has a keen interest in the longstanding debate between them.

So, don’t be turned off by his headline. This essay is smart and insightful. It will teach you what the debate is about, which is interesting on its own. But it will also prompt ideas about long-standing debates in other areas, including philosophy, literature, and the arts.

Speaking of Woke Linguistics…

From TS: “A funny take on woke pronouns.” Click here.

Health Watch 

McDonald’s French Fries? Don’t Tell Me!

JS sends us another heads-up about healthy eating. In this case, it’s about the toxicity of a large order of McDonald’s fries. It’s a very short video, but it makes its argument strongly. If you are a big fan of McD’s fries (as I am), you might want to skip it. If you think you can handle it, click here.

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How English Became the Common Global Language

Today, 1.5 billion people speak English. But in the 12th century, the language was almost extinct. So, how did English survive and spread so widely? Is there something about the language itself that played a role in that?

In this clip, Lori Dorn gives a lecture on the fascinating history.

An Admirable Example of the Simple Life

SH sent in this piece about the Bruderhof (German for “Place of Brothers”), a small group of Christian pacifists that were expelled from Germany by the Nazis and migrated abroad.

“Ultimately,” SH says, “they settled in 26 communities on five continents. Today, about half of the roughly 3,000 Bruderhof scattered across the world live in six villages squirreled away in the hollows of the Hudson Valley. Fox Hill is in Walden, an hour and a half northwest of Manhattan. To outsiders, the Bruderhof share a passing resemblance to the Mennonites and the Amish. Like those groups, the Bruderhof see their communities as refuges from the materialism and inequities of the modern world. They live simply and share their wealth.”

More About the Connection Between Music and Numbers… and Just About Everything Else 

As I said on March 21, it’s well known that there is a relationship between music and numbers. So, I shouldn’t have been surprised to discover that many of the people I’ve known who think analytically (e.g., financial analysts) have had an unusually strong interest in music – all kinds of music.

After reading that, JM wrote in to recommend a book that goes much further into the deeper meanings and connections that thinkers throughout history have found in music: Music and the Idea of a World, by Peter Kalkavage. Based on the reviews I’ve read, it sounds fascinating. You can check it out here.

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From RR: “Ready, Fire, Aim – the best book ever written on starting and growing businesses” 

“I’m a massive fan of your work and really admire your entrepreneurial accomplishments. I’ve read Ready, Fire, Aim 5+ times. I’m convinced it’s the best book ever written on starting and growing businesses. It’s effective and practical advice explained in simple terms by someone who has been there and done that. Nobody has taught me more about business and entrepreneurship.”

Editor’s Note: Readers of this blog can order most of Mark’s books – including Ready, Fire, Aim, at a discounted price. Click here.

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Smithsonian Magazine’s Annual Photo Contest 

This is just one of the finalists in the magazine’s 21st annual photo contest:

Click here… and enjoy all 60!

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