Last Friday at the Cigar Club

Notes from My Journal:

Wednesday and Friday evenings at my private Cigar Club in Delray Beach are always good but never the same. And that’s probably because the people that drop by for a chat have so many different interests and experiences. 
 
The number of people that show up also varies considerably – from small gatherings of just five or six to pop-up parties of 40 or more. The size of the crowd depends on how many “We’re open this evening” emails I tell Gio to send out. Most of the time, the notice is restricted to my inner sanctum. Sometimes, when I’m feeling spunky, it goes out to a larger list. And sometimes, she sends out nothing at all because I’m on a deadline and planning to work late or I’m feeling like a solo sulk. (If I change my mind after she leaves, I can signal that we’re open with a little remote-control gadget I keep in my desk drawer that illuminates a string of little lights that run across the outside of the building.)
 
Last Friday was mostly an inner sanctum night, so I wasn’t expecting a big crowd. 
 
The first to arrive was R. He had emailed me earlier in the week, telling me that he had started a business using Ready, Fire, Aim for ideas and inspiration, was going to be in town for a few days, and would like to stop in and say hello. My memory, as you know, is nothing to brag about, but I did remember having several conversations with him years earlier. I remembered him as smart and ambitious. And for some reason, I mistakenly remembered him as having red hair.
 
We spent the first 15 minutes reminiscing about the old days, but I didn’t get to ask him much about his business before the “regulars” began to appear. (I gleaned that R was in the general field of direct response marketing and that he had clients, as opposed to customers, but that was about it.)
 
P, a good friend and occasional business partner for 30+ years, was my next guest. It’s always good to have one or two of my older friends around at these get-togethers – not only so they can experience the fun, but because I’m interested to see how they interact with the younger people and hear what they think of my reactions and “takeaways.” Above all, I want to know if they thought the conversations were as good or as bad as I thought they were.
 
Next was H – a young man who was delivering pizzas six months ago when he decided to drive to South Florida to volunteer to work for R, whose ideas about optimizing artificial intelligence he found exciting. H just walked into R’s office, said he wanted to work for him, and said he’d be happy to do it for free. I met H several times after he began working for R, and I had high hopes for him. His advancement was even faster than I expected. He’s currently running one of R’s many income streams. 
 
A pleasant surprise (something that has happened at least twice before with these smart, young people) was that H was accompanied by his mom and dad, who, according to H, wanted to meet me. They were both delightful and, to my chagrin, at least 10 years younger than I am. In introducing us, H told the story of how it was that knew who I was. Apparently, in his high school years, H’s father made him read books about business, wealth-building, and self-improvement. One of them – which H now swears was his favorite – was Ready, Fire, Aim.
 
Let’s see… Who else was there? 
 
Oh! Z showed up! Z is a guy I’ve known for six or eight years. I don’t know how to describe his occupation. I guess I’d say he’s a well-regarded influencer in the world of plant-based medicine, particularly the kind that Dr. Timothy Leary was interested in. Z gives lectures to doctors and psychologists, produces documentaries on his field of work, and sometimes conducts “guided experiential tours” for his clients. From what I can tell by following him on social media, he’s lately become popular with some professional athletes and movie stars and such. But he’s not letting this go to his head. He still drops by the Cigar Club when he’s in South Florida to check in with me and hang out with us ordinary people. 
 
Then B arrived. I’m sure I’ve talked to you about B before. Like Z, B’s work is multifaceted and cannot be explained with a title or in a single sentence. In his 30s, B made a fortune starting and then selling some sort of software company. Since then, he’s been consulting with and sometimes investing in software start-ups. He’s also an accomplished musician who has opened for A-level rock bands, a writer of screenplays, and a formidable opponent in debate. 
 
A few more were present, but you get the picture. The conversations that took place were lively and diverse, covering topics ranging from classic movies, to legendary comics, to politics, to the war in Iran, to the average IQs of various ethnic groups. And it wasn’t long before we were exchanging news and views about – yes, I’m going to get into it again – artificial intelligence.

The AI Threat to Musicians That’s Happening Now

In the April 9 issue, I wrote about how AI is invading the music industry at a rate and to a degree that, even accounting for my alarmist feelings about AI, is shocking. Since then, I’ve been spending a bit of my reading/research time each day checking out what’s new in AI music. And there’s quite a bit.

One of the things we discussed at the Cigar Bar on Friday was a story I’d read in The Free Press. It was about Murphy Campbell, a singer-songwriter and banjo player from North Carolina who was eking out a modest living videotaping herself sitting on a log or a rocking chair and performing her original compositions. Her fan base was steadily increasing when, a few months ago, she noticed that songs were appearing on her Spotify page that were attributed to her, but were not hers. She hadn’t written them. She hadn’t performed them. And yet, they sounded eerily familiar.
 
She eventually realized that they were AI-generated, probably created by someone who was feeding an AI with snippets of her published songs and asking it to create other songs that were similar.
 
Understandably, this irked her. But when she received a notice that she was “sharing” royalties for these counterfeits that were being played on platforms all over the world, she was flummoxed. Who was selling this music? And what, if anything, could she do about it?
 
A few of the people in our little group on Friday had heard of this scam going on in the music industry. “It’s a new thing,” said B, “so it’s not well known. But it isn’t rare either. It’s not a huge issue right now, but it could easily become one.”
 
The problem, B explained, is that if you know what you are doing, you can feed in any sort of music you want and generate a troop of AI singer-songwriters producing and performing “original” music for you. And all you have to do is a bit of video cutting and pasting and using an AI to create a royalty-sharing contract, either with the Murphy Campbells of the world or even with your own AI avatars.
 
The conversation moved on to the potential of this – good and bad.
 
On the good side is the possibility that the music industry could grow geometrically as millions of kinda-like songs and singers are produced and promoted by thousands of AI agents working in their basements or kitchens. 
 
On the bad side is the eventual (but not that eventual) collapse of the music culture we enjoy now, with human-generated music becoming, at best, a personal hobby with very little monetizable value, and where 80% to 90% of the money made will go to musicians and dealmakers that insert themselves into the AI music industry now and figure out what needs to be done.
 
I know a few musicians and would-be musicians that either make a living or hope to make a living composing and performing their own music. Most of them are hanging on to the hope that AI will never be able to capture a large swath of the marketplace by selling fake music to real people. 
 
And maybe they will be proven right. 
 
But what if they are wrong? What will they be left with? 
 
If you are in the music industry now or would like to be in the future, you need to hedge your bet by continuing to do your own thing while learning about and even testing out AI music. You’ve got nothing but a bit of time to lose… and you’ve got an exciting and remunerative future to win.

Will AI Take Over the Music Industry

And Eventually Replace Human Musicians? 

Since I’m on this subject for the second time in a month, I thought I would give you some outside perspectives on the questions I’ve been indirectly asking.

Four Articles Worth Reading 

The Atlantic on how AI, algorithms, and streaming are reshaping music

The Economist on how AI systems are generating music at scale

The New Yorker on how major labels are experimenting with AI while trying to protect artists

Time magazine on how AI could undermine authenticity and replace human artists if unchecked

Four Video Commentaries Worth Watching

* “AI Will Destroy the Music Industry.”

* “The Music Industry Is Turning on AI Producers.”

* “The Music Industry’s AI Takeover.”

* “Is AI music going to overshadow human music?” 

Readers Write:

KK Isn’t Worried About AI… Here’s Why 

After reading my April 9 post on the AI music debate, KK, a longtime friend and regular reader, wrote to cheer me up with this positive take on it:

“Nice to see you writing about music, a subject near and dear to my ear. My take on AI is it will not have a formative effect on the industry. Why? Because most bands today make the bulk of their money from live shows, especially touring, ticket sales, and merchandise sold at concerts. Streaming, royalties, and licensing can add income, but they usually pay less than performances for most active bands. Gone are the days of gold records creating fortunes.

“I think of AI as an invasive plant, needing herbicides only when it’s encroached to the point of intolerance. How things eventually level out will most likely be seen by people other than you and me.

“Still, my biggest concern is AI’s use by the criminally intent. I believe the combination of Quantum computing and AI will render encryption and the blockchain obsolete (bitcoin).

“Soon to be entering my 77th year, I can only say maybe we will see it.”

My Response: KK, I understand how you feel about AI music and how it may inform your hopes for the future. I used to have the same feelings and thoughts about AI writing.

Your point about the economics of the music industry is a good one. But consider the success of The Sphere in Las Vegas, and the fact that AI music producers will be able to generate and own all the rights to their creations. All that is missing is the emotional attachment.

I was feeling something for that second AI avatar I mentioned in the April 9 issue: Morgan Luna. In my future vision, I’ll be able to send her fan mail, which she’ll respond to, letting me know that she’d like to have a chat with me online. That will become a several-weeks-long (or several-months-long) romance, if I am so inclined. And then finally – if she becomes as popular as I think she might – I’ll be able to order a robotic version of her through Amazon and have her delivered to my hotel room in 24 hours!

The downside, of course, could be unimaginably bad…

Darth Vader’s “Imperial March” Played as a Bach Fugue

Postscript: 

And now for some music written by and played by real people…

This is great. This guitarist (who I’ve seen before somewhere) upgrades Darth Vader’s theme from Star Wars into a Bach fugue. It’s technically impressive. And it’s edifying. I’ve heard “Bach fugue” defined before, but it wasn’t until I listened to this short piece of music that I understood how it works.

Chiropractic “Insurance” for Me

Notes from My Journal: 

And an Unexpected Marketing Opportunity for Paradise Palms 
 
I had a visit with SA, my chiropractor, whom I haven’t seen in years. I wanted to check him out to make sure he would still be there for me when I needed him because I had just found out that Dr. B, my longtime doctor, was retiring at the too-young age of 65. I was shocked. I felt abandoned. So, I made the appointment with SA, half hoping he would look youthful and decades away from retirement and the other half hoping that, at 75, I looked better. The day came and I was happy to see that, aside from the fact that his hair had grayed, he looked vital and strong. I noticed that his appointment calendar was maxed out at four patients an hour for eight hours straight five days a week at $45 an hour. “$45 an hour! Is that all I’m paying you?” I said. “I pay my Jiu-Jitsu trainers twice as much to break my body into pieces.” 
 
My two favorite experiences at Paradise Palms, the botanical and sculpture garden I’ve been building in West Delray Beach, is seeing adults amazed by how many rare and beautiful plants we have to offer and seeing young children playing in “Kid’s Town.” Kid’s Town is a collection of a half-dozen buildings, including a school, a General Store, and three little houses that are equipped with kid-sized furniture, appliances, and other things one would expect to find in a real house but much smaller. For several years, I’ve been toying with the idea of finding someone to market Paradise Palms to groups to help pay the $500,000+ per year that it costs to keep the place open. I’d interviewed a half-dozen people, tried out one or two, but hadn’t found anyone that could move the needle. Then E appeared. She had been invited to a birthday party at Kid’s Town and decided she wanted to help us promote it. She went right to work, initially without even asking my permission. By the time I met her, she had produced a viral video that got 9,000 hits, made dozens of appointments, and sold six tours. E is a very rare bird – a person who has the rarest and most essential business skills: She’s both a Starter and a Grower (see today’s main essay, below). And if I can make the right deal with her, she’s going to put our little botanical garden (and Kid’s Town) on the map. 

10 Personality Types

You Need to Make Your Start-Up Business Soar

Forty-plus years of starting and growing (and starting and abandoning, and starting and selling) upstart businesses – as well as watching others do the same – has given me lots of ideas about why and how entrepreneurial businesses succeed and fail.

I’ve written books about entrepreneurship before, and I am generally happy with them –especially Ready, Fire, Aim. But I still have at least one book on that topic inside me that wants to come out. It’s something I’ve been thinking about for a long time, and I’m finally getting it done.

It’s related to a thesis I have written about before: that there are basically two kinds of business leaders – those that have the personalities and skills to grow new businesses, and those that have the personalities and skills to manage businesses once they have reached a certain size.

Since putting that thesis out there in speeches, essays, and in business meetings, I have expanded my thesis to include eight more personality types.

The successful founders and business leaders I know usually possess not just one, but two or three or even more of these traits. Moreover, they have the ability to recognize these traits in others – and they do everything they can to seek out and be surrounded by partners and key employees who have them, especially the ones that they themselves lack.

That’s the idea that I’m trying to turn into a book.

As I move along with this project, I’ll be publishing sections of it here to solicit your feedback. Today, I’d like to start with an outline of the 10 personality types I’ve identified. I’ve organized them into four groups, based on how important they are to the business and how hard they are to find.

Please take a look and let me know what you think.

Group One: Extremely Rare and Absolutely Essential 
Percent of the working population: 1 out of 50

1. Starters

Starters have the very unusual trait of thoroughly enjoying the challenge of, well, starting from scratch! Part of that is an almost unnatural amount of self-confidence. Part of it is an immunity to the fear of failure. And some of it, I sometimes think, is a kind of mental mishap – a missing emotional bolt in the part of the brain that is designed for common sense. (I say that without a drop of condescension or disrespect. I don’t have the Starter gene, and I’m not happy about it. My best business launches and non-business projects were either started by someone else before I hooked up with them or were “started” by me only after finding someone smart and ambitious with the Starter gene to take on that part of the job.)

Notable characteristics: Alertness, enthusiasm, eagerness, a natural (not necessarily earned) sense of self-confidence, and a generally upbeat personality.

2. Growers

Growers are inspired by the ambition of growing the business. And once they get moving, they are relentless in pushing for expansion, no matter how much work is involved. They are willing to work long hours – nights, weekends, vacations – and they quietly expect their colleagues and subordinates to do the same. 
 
Growers understand that growth creates disruption and disruption leaves behind a mess. They recognize that someone has to clean up the messes they create, but they believe – correctly – that the business is better served when they keep pushing forward and let others handle the cleanup.
 
Growers also understand that there are basically three ways to grow a business: By increasing the number of customers. By increasing the number of products that customers purchase. And by increasing the amount of money that customers spend on those products. Thus, Growers see their job through the screen of marketing, sales, and product development. 
 
Though their primary motivation is revenue growth, Growers understand that unless that growth comes with a healthy profit margin, its value may be an illusion. 
 
The ideal combination for profitable growth is to have, at the helm of the company, equal stress on growth and profitability. The happiest situation is when the founder or CEO has the characteristics for both, but that is rare. A much more likely situation is to have two personalities who respect and appreciate one another working together towards the combined objective.
 
Notable characteristics: Passion, intensity and drive, an almost super-human energy for growth showing itself as single-mindedness, relentlessness, and a very low tolerance for doubts and details that threaten to slow growth.
 
Group Two: Rare and Extremely Helpful
Percent of the working population: 1 out of 20
 
3. Bottom Liners

Bottom Liners are motivated almost entirely by profits. Put differently, they care much more about the bottom line than the top line. However, the best ones, like the best Growers, recognize that the primary goal of the business is profitability, so they work cooperatively with Starters and Growers to find a healthy balance between profit margins and growth.

Bottom Liners are often the ones who turn a fast-growing business into a sustainably profitable one. Once they take responsibility for a business or division, they begin looking for inefficiencies everywhere – pricing, costs, terms, staffing, and capital allocation. They negotiate hard, cut intelligently, and make decisions based on financial reality rather than optimism.

Like Growers, Bottom Liners are willing to make tough decisions. And like the best Growers, the best Bottom Liners possess the rare skill of knowing how to execute difficult decisions fairly and deliver bad news gracefully.
Notable characteristics: Meticulous in thinking, hard driving in their work habits, willing to do whatever it takes to produce a healthy bottom line. Bottom Liners are smart in just about every possible way. They are comfortable thinking about the big picture, but just as comfortable dissecting details to come up with solutions for recurring problems miles away from the central offices. They are smart emotionally, too, knowing how to get their job done, which includes cutting budgets, eliminating non-essential workers, and reducing benefits and privileges. They are motivated almost exclusively by seeing the net income grow from year to year because they understand that without profit growth, the business is always a year away from disaster.

4. Pushers

All of the personality types discussed so far can push. The reason I list Pushers separately is that their motivation is not tied to some metric of performance such as revenue or profit growth. What charges them up is just getting things done. And that means they are happy to apply their superpower to whatever job they are assigned to lead.

It’s for that reason that you will find Pushers in leadership roles throughout any well-functioning and fast-growing business. Whether it is accounting, customer service, production, data entry, fulfillment, etc., the larger the company grows, the more important it is for each of these non-marketing functions to work well.

Pushers will push for hitting or exceeding production goals, meeting or beating deadlines, and demanding accountability from everyone. Good Pushers get the job done, come hell or high water, regardless of the human cost. They do so because they see themselves as working for the business and not for anyone or everyone else. If they must stub a few toes or hurt a few feelings to accomplish the goal, they are willing to have it happen. The best Pushers, however, possess the magical ability to get people to work longer and harder than they are inclined to or even want to without making them feel like they are being pushed.

Notable characteristics: Relentlessness, drive, the ability to focus intently on a goal, persistence, the ability to convey urgency and purpose, and a low tolerance for any sort of behavior that unnecessarily slows down the job.

5. Inventors

Inventors understand marketing and sales at a master level, but they have an extra superpower: They take pride in being able to predict what new products or product variants will be successful and which ones won’t. They can do that because they understand that what motivates prospects to buy is almost always more complicated and more subtle than the product’s obvious qualities.

This ability is, obviously, not common. And since it is more a product of the limbic brain (rather than the rational brain), it’s not a skill that can be easily taught or learned. That uniqueness gives Inventors the ability to help the business grow in a way that Growers and Drivers can’t.

Inventors are always thinking about the next thing to sell. They understand that when a customer buys something, what they are most likely to want next is some version of that same thing – an upgrade, a variation for a different use, or something that feels more valuable because it is scarcer, better designed, or more prestigious. So, they focus on creating “one-step-removed” products – keeping the essential elements the same while changing one key feature. And they are eager to test quickly because they assume – correctly – that competitors are watching and working on their own versions of the same idea.

Notable characteristics: Inventors feel a constant pressure to stay one step ahead. Their value to the business comes not from radical innovation, but from consistently feeding the business with new offerings.

Group Three: Available and Essential
Percent of the working population: 1 out of 10

6. Persuaders

Persuaders are essential for not just growth, but survival. They not only add value to the health and well-being of the business by leading or assisting in important negotiations, they include all the people on the revenue side of the ledger. They are marketing directors and sales managers and the copywriters who write the scripts that salespeople use to make and close their presentations.

The best Persuaders enjoy their work because they have a genuine feeling that completing the sale is not only good for the business, but good for the customer, too. Their superpower is the ability to read and respond to the thoughts and feelings of their customers, moment by moment, throughout the sales process. When they sense hesitation, confusion, or resistance, they make adjustments – changing their language, their tone, or their approach in real time and keeping the sale alive when a less perceptive salesperson would lose it.

Persuaders are enormously valuable to the business they work for because the difference in selling performance is not incremental, it’s substantial. They turn interest into revenue, and they do it consistently.

Without good Persuaders, revenues flatten and eventually fall – and soon after that, profits are reduced to zero.

Notable characteristics: Smart. Inventive. Self-confident. Good with words. Some persuaders sell in person, some on the phone, and some, the copywriters, without any direct contact at all. But they all know why and how people make decisions, especially buying decisions, and they use that understanding to sell them things.

7. Strategists

Strategists look at business challenges in terms of cause and effect and like to solve problems by analyzing data. They are quick and proficient learners when it comes to understanding market dynamics, competitive positioning, and how different parts of the sales and marketing apparatus of a business fit together. Thus, they are not just planners, but capable of developing coherent approaches to marketing, product development, customer service, and operations.

Strategists tend to step back from the day-to-day activity of the business and think about direction – what markets to pursue, how to position the product, how to allocate resources, and how to improve efficiency across functions. They are good at seeing patterns and connecting dots that others miss.

A good Strategist can be immensely valuable to a growing business – and, relative to the other personality types, they are easier to find. There are many smart, well-educated people in the job market who understand business strategy in theory and can speak intelligently about it across multiple domains.

Notable characteristics: Better than average intelligence, analytical ability, and the ability to break down challenges into component features and then reinvent marketing systems by fixing the broken features while preserving those that still work.

Group Four: Available and Necessary
Percent of the working population: 1 out of 5 (for the good ones)

8. Soldiers

Soldiers prefer working within a defined mission rather than creating one themselves. Thus, they are not just willing but dependable in carrying out plans designed by Starters, Growers, and Inventors. 
 
Once assigned a role, Soldiers focus on doing their job well and supporting the objectives of the team. They are not interested in being on top or running everything. They know that they don’t have the appetite – or, in many cases, the skills – for that kind of responsibility, and they are perfectly fine with it. They take satisfaction in being the right-hand person to someone important in the business and often derive a sense of purpose and status from that relationship. 
 
Soldiers are very good at bringing order to chaos. When things get messy – and they always do after the Starters, Growers, and Inventors have done their thing – Soldiers step in and make sure the work actually gets done. They follow through, execute the plan, and keep the machine moving. They take pride in being the ones who can be counted on when things would otherwise start to fall apart.
 
Notable characteristics: Enthusiasm, reliability, discipline, and respect for hierarchies. They are also honest, hardworking, and grateful for any and all opportunities they come across.
 
9. Solvers

Solvers have analytical, problem-oriented personalities – i.e., they enjoy confronting difficult problems and figuring out workable solutions. Thus, they are not just reactive troubleshooters, but often the people others turn to when something breaks, stalls, or stops working altogether.

Once a problem is identified, Solvers dig into the details, isolate the cause, and work methodically until it is resolved. They are not trying to run the business. They know their strength lies in solving problems, and they are most comfortable when given something specific to fix.

Like Soldiers, they are especially valuable in fast-growing companies, where problems multiply quickly. They take pride in being called in when something has gone wrong because they know that without someone fixing those problems, the business would eventually grind to a halt.

Notable characteristics: Solvers are smart, analytical, mentally flexible, and disciplined and tenacious when given problems to solve. They are motivated by the ego gratification they feel when fixing problems others have given up on.

10. Tenders

Tenders have stabilizing, maintenance-oriented personalities – i.e., they are attentive to the ongoing health of the organization and the systems that keep it functioning. Thus, they are not just cleaners of messes, but caretakers of processes, relationships, and standards that would otherwise deteriorate over time.

Tenders are inspired by solving problems and minimizing mistakes. They work instinctively and persistently toward that end. Once in position, they focus on keeping things running smoothly – cleaning up after disruption, maintaining order, and preventing small issues from becoming large ones. They are not driven to be in charge. They understand their role, and they value it.

Notable characteristics: Conscientiousness, patience, organization, and a preference for predictability.

The Downer Side of Ozempic

I lost 40 pounds, got into better shape – cardio, agility, endurance – and I look and feel better than I have for years. That’s been my experience, and I’m grateful for it.

But after 40 years of paying attention to natural health, I’ve learned one thing: Every drug has side effects, and some percentage of people will feel them. Here’s a report about one that I’m glad I didn’t experience: “They Went on Ozempic and Gave Up on Life,” by Evan Gardner in The Free Press.

 

News from the Dog Aging Project 

Statins for dogs? Are you kidding me? Read this, sent in by GM.

A Poem Worth Reading

Another poet I discovered recently. And another poem that has me reading poetry again.

Excelsior Fashion Products, Easter
By D. Nurkse

They pay us time and a half
and don’t dare catch us
drinking: we don’t insist,
don’t pass a bottle, but each sips
a private pint, all sitting
in the narrow room with our backs
to the center, each facing
his work – router, stain tray,
buffing wheel, drill press –
and with that sweet taste echoing
in our bones, we watch our hands
make what they always made
– rosewood handles – but now
we smile in delighted surprise
and Marchesi brings envelopes
that record a full day’s work
though it’s still noon,
processions still fill the streets,
choirs, loudspeakers bellowing,
Hallelujah: and we change
into our finest clothes in the locker room,
admiring each other’s hat brims, passing bottles
freely until all are empty, and at last
we separate in the brilliant street, each
in the direction of a different tolling bell.

About D. Nurkse 

Dennis Nurkse is an American poet known for his profound explorations of personal and political themes. He was born to Estonian parents who escaped Nazi Europe During World War II. His father worked for the League of Nations, and his mother was an artist.

He has won numerous awards for his poetry, including grants from the NEA. He has also worked for human rights organizations, and was elected to the board of directors of Amnesty International USA. (Source: Poetry Foundation)