I don’t know Andrey Dashkov, but I know the man he works for: Doug Casey. And when it comes to the larger view, I trust Doug. He’s not just a serious student of investing, he’s a brilliant thinker with a sound, philosophical approach to life.

Andrey, like me, has no idea about what 2021 will turn out to be in terms of the stock market. But he’s playing it on the conservative side. He cites three reasons:

* He begins by stating his concern over impending lockdowns, citing the three that have already taken place in the UK since the start of the year. He explains that the virus and lockdowns’ effects were made clear last year with a 31% blow to the S&P in March, and warns that the new, more contagious strain recently found in the US may force even more lockdowns around the world.

* His next concern is that of “higher inflation expectations.” He explains that on January 4, “the breakeven rate – an inflation gauge based on interest rates – climbed above 2% for the first time since 2018.” He adds that while moderate inflation is to be expected after an economic crisis (i.e., a global pandemic), it also “erodes purchasing power” and warns that “If inflation runs high in 2021, a lot of what you buy day-to-day will get more expensive.”

* Dashkov then points to the S&P’s volatility index (which he refers to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”) on January 4, pointing out that “it was up 19% from where it was at the end of 2020.” Due to this volatility, he would “urge you to err on the safe side… before rushing into bargains or panic selling.” He also suggests adding some gold to your portfolio to have “a safe haven against volatile market moves, as well as government spending and future inflation.”