How I Fell Into Real Estate Hell 

In the late 1970s, I made my first investment in real estate. It was a tidy little one-bedroom in a recently refurbished building on Massachusetts Ave. in Washington, DC. The woman that sold it to us happened to be the owner of a townhouse we were renting about half a mile away. She persuaded me to buy the apartment by explaining how prices had been escalating in the area and by offering me a loan that required me to put nothing down. Not a cent.

Nice apartment. Recently remodeled building. Up-and-coming neighborhood. And zero out-of-pocket? It seemed like a no-brainer to me.

The no-brainer, it turned out, was me.

She was right in telling me that property values in that part of DC had been going up. And she did manage to get me a deed and the keys without taking a nickel from my wallet. But what she didn’t tell me was that the value of the property that was indicated on the mortgage was considerably higher than it was actually worth. Nor did she explain that the loan I had agreed to had a three-year term, and at a negatively amortizing rate.

What that meant was that my mortgage payments were not sufficient to cover the interest payments – or the principal. So, at the end of the three-year term, I had to refinance, which required me to shell out thousands. Plus, the amount I owed on the principal was more at the end of the term than it was when I first signed.

To make matters worse, I rented the place to a nice young woman that presented herself as a college student. As it turned out, she was earning her tuition by entertaining men in her apartment at night. This led to constant complaints from the neighbors and fines from the HOA. To add insult to injury, after the second month, she stopped paying rent.

I inquired as to the procedures for kicking her out and found that DC had such strong tenant “protection” regulations that it would take at least a year and probably two or three to get rid of her. I considered changing the locks when she was away, but was told that if I did that, I’d be arrested. I’d be in jail – still paying the mortgage, still losing money every month on the negatively amortizing loan, still paying fines to the HOA. And she’d be comfortably entertaining “clients” until the eviction procedure finally took hold.

I considered refinancing again. But alas, the mortgage I had signed was not backed by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. That meant that at the end of those three-year terms, I could be forced to pay out the entire balance of the mortgage. (Which was growing by about a thousand bucks a month.) I didn’t have that much money. So, I had to accept whatever predatory terms the shitty bank that held the mortgage offered me. I had fallen into real estate hell with no prospect of getting out.

It wasn’t until nearly four years later that I managed to pay off the mortgage and sell the damn place. Instead of the big profit my landlady had promised, I took a hit for nearly $40,000 – which was about $40,000 more than my net worth.

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A Quick Look at the Current Real Estate Market US-Wide 

Thanks to a perfect storm of Fed-directed low interest rates, rising crime, and escalating taxes in states like New York, New Jersey, and California, property values in Florida and Texas are surging. Along the coast, from Miami to Delray Beach (where I live) and all the way to Jupiter, prices are as high or even higher than they were in the early 2000s.

From Bill Bonner’s Diary:

“Rents in Miami have been rising at the fastest pace in the nation. The South Florida Business Journal reports that landlords, in neighborhoods such as Delray Beach, are ‘making a killing.’ They’re raising rents by 30% a year… and more.”

As for sales, Norada Real Estate reports:

“It is a seller’s market with many sellers getting top dollar…. The Miami real estate market continues to break records due to pent-up demand and low mortgage rates which continue to fuel real estate transactions.

“Miami’s hot housing market, fueled by domestic and international homebuyers, ended 2021 with 39,394 existing total home sales, up 49.5% from the 26,345 transactions in 2020 and 31.1% from the previous annual record of 30,041 transactions in 2013. Miami’s dollar volume of sales will reach $30.3 billion in 2021, a 103.4% annual increase.”

If, like me, you are an income investor, rising property values is a not an automatic win. It’s nice to see your net worth grow due to increasing real estate valuations. But if rents don’t increase as well, your current ROI in terms of your current assets is a diminishing percentage.

That’s what happened before the crash of 2008. This time, for several good reasons, things are different. The most important are these: (1) Banks are not making completely frivolous loans any more. (2) Rent rolls are rising, too.

What this means is that my son Patrick (who manages the family’s real estate) and I are not worried about the rental properties we currently own. We aren’t worried about another 2008-like collapse. Even if there is a correction, these properties carry little debt. And because rents are also on the rise, we can gradually adjust our rents to compensate for rising maintenance and management costs. That will ensure a healthy bottom line.

But we aren’t able to find any more properties to buy in the area. The prices are prohibitive. So, in partnership with my brother Justin, I have been looking at properties outside of Florida, where the numbers are better.

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Rental Real Estate 101: What Does “Buying Right” Mean? 

I wrote a course on rental real estate investing 10 years ago when I was writing a blog called “Creating Wealth.” Recently, I decided to turn it into a book that recounts my personal experiences and what I’ve learned. But to make the book stronger, I asked my brother Justin to co-author it with me, since his experience is longer and stronger than mine. The following is an excerpt from an early chapter that explains a very useful trick we use to determine how much any rental property is worth. [italics]

One of the most important lessons I ever learned about investing in real estate was taught to me by my brother Justin. It is a very simple formula for estimating the value of almost any sort of rental property in a matter of seconds. It is brilliant. It is extremely useful. And it is incredibly reliable. (As most brilliant formulas are.)

I wish I had known about this formula when I made my first real estate investment. It would have saved me tens of thousands of dollars and four years of real estate hell. It gave me the confidence to invest strongly for several years, buying up dozens of single-family houses and two small apartment complexes that have given me millions of dollars in appreciated value and millions of dollars in cash flow since then.

Perhaps more importantly, it pushed me out of the market by 2006, when property values were unreasonably high, and thus kept me safe when the real estate bubble burst in the fall of 2008.

This is the formula:

If you can buy a piece of property and have it fixed up and ready to rent for less than 100 times the monthly rental income, consider buying it. If you can’t, walk away.

Example: You are looking to make your first investment. On the advice of a friend (me, perhaps), you are looking at three-bedroom, two-bath, single-family homes in working class neighborhoods in or near where you live. You find two houses that you can comfortably afford. One has a rental income of $1,500 and is priced at $145,000. Another has a rental income of $1,600 and is priced at $170,000. Which should you buy?

Using our simple formula, you multiply each rent by 100 to get your “limit.” The limit for the one renting at $1,500 is $150,000. The limit for the one renting at $1,600 is $160,000. The former meets the standard, as you can buy it for less than $150,000. The latter does not, since it’s priced above $160,000.

It’s as simple as that.

Justin calls this calculation the gross rent multiplier (GRM).

The GRM is simple. It is also a rule of thumb. In my experience, it has been reliable every time I’ve used it, without exception. But my brother warns me that there are times when you have to do more arithmetic than just the GRM. This is especially true for larger properties – apartments and complexes of 50-plus units. Hotels and motels. And the like.

But for anyone who is a novice investor, like I was when I began buying rental properties, it is a very good and trustworthy protocol to follow. It will save you loads of time and a fair bit of money considering questionable properties. It will also make you immune to seductive sales pitches because you won’t be listening to the claims and promises of owners, agents, and/or brokers. You will do the calculation mentally in a few seconds. And then you will know whether it’s worth your time to investigate the investment further.

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York, England

The family and I spent some time touring the northern environs of England several years ago. There were lots of interesting and memorable things to see. One of our favorite cities was York, a charming town of winding cobbled streets, a magnificent cathedral, classic shop fronts, and dramatic stone walls surrounding the city. (I’ve read that it is the best-preserved walled city in the country.)

Originally established as a military settlement by the Romans in the first century, York had walls erected around the fort and surrounding village in order to keep out intruders. These fortifications formed the basic footprint of the walls that still stand today, most of which were built between the 12th and 14th centuries.

What We Liked About York  

* Walking the city walls

* Visiting the Castle Museum

* Climbing Clifford’s Tower

* Being awed by York Minster cathedral

* Learning about the Viking life at Jorvik Viking Centre

* Checking out the National Railway Museum

* Window shopping along the Shambles

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Letter to June Carter from Johnny Cash, June 23, 1994: 

“We get old and get used to each other. We think alike. We read each other’s minds. We know what the other wants without asking. Sometimes we irritate each other a little bit. Maybe sometimes take each other for granted. But once in a while, like today, I meditate on it and realize how lucky I am to share my life with the greatest woman I ever met. You still fascinate and inspire me. You influence me for the better. You’re the object of my desire, the #1 Earthly reason for my existence. I love you very much.” (Source: Letters of Note)

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Amortization – from the Latin for “to kill” – is the process of gradually paying off a loan by making planned, incremental payments. With real estate, this is done with a mortgage. As each payment is made, part of it is applied as interest on the loan and the remainder goes toward reducing the principal.

Negative Amortization refers to an increase in the principal balance of a loan caused by a failure to cover the interest due on that loan. For example, if the interest payment on a loan is $500 and the borrower only pays $400, the $100 difference would be added to the loan’s principal balance.

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“Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt.

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Re a course I published called Rental Real Estate 101 about 10 years ago. (As I said above, I’m working on turning it into a book.) 

“I have to thank you for your course in real estate investing. I’ve been using it since it first came out and I’ve already made a half million dollars on my rental properties.” – RC

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I started watching this last night, thinking I’d spend just a few minutes on it. But it held me for the entire hour. The subject: People who remember every second of their life.

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