Today, I wrap up this incredibly successful – from both a business and a personal perspective – trip to Japan. In addition to sharing some of the highlights of the past few days with you, I get back to issues concerning the US economy with excerpts from a very interesting interview with Doug Casey.
Work, Adventure, and Gratitude: My Tokyo Week
I’m a Lucky Bastard. A Lucky, Grateful Bastard.
I’m writing this on Sunday, in our room on the 11th floor of the Prince Sakura Tower, which looks down on central Tokyo, a landscape of haphazardly arranged modern, glass-and-steel skyscrapers, mid-century office buildings, and aging wood-framed houses, small restaurants, bars, and retail shops – with the occasional colonial era mansion standing in the middle of it all.
The city is quiet now. But in less than an hour it will come to life, thrumming with the movement of millions starting their day. Like New York or London or Beijing, Tokyo is electric with the dense energy of its people, which makes the infrequent visitor feel humbled and happy in equal measure.
K and I have been here now for 12 days. Our time together, which comprises roughly half of my time here, has been given to touring museums, visiting gardens, and exploring local neighborhoods that K read about in the very considerable research she does before every trip abroad. As I mentioned in my last post, we’ve spent the majority of our time in Tokyo, but we also spent two days in Matsumoto and a day and an evening in Nagano.
For me, the touring part of this trip has been a great success. I’m especially excited about the ideas I’ve stolen from two botanical gardens we visited that I’ll use to make my botanical garden in Florida more fun and picturesque for visitors.
The other half (for me) has been business – one day of preparation and five days of speeches, panel sessions, hot-seat counseling, TV and YouTube interviews, and a half-dozen promotions for my books and next year’s conference events.
I almost can’t believe the success Sean and I have had with this little publishing partnership I started in Japan. In the last 24 to 30 months, the investment newsletter we write together has gone to the top of our publishers’ charts. (Sean does the hard work – running our stock portfolio. I do the easy part – writing opinion pieces about getting rich.) And we’ve sold more of my books to Japanese readers than John Wiley and my other US publishers sold to Americans in the last 10 years.
And get this: The company that sells my ideas on business and marketing launched a new campaign that sold, in its first month, more than 1,000 copies of one of my books for $300 a book!
What lights me up is not the experiences themselves. I’ve had similar experiences throughout my career. What makes me feel so good is that I’m having all this fun at the ripe old age of 75 – a time of life when I should be retired.
I’ve tried retirement. I tried it first when I was 39 and then at 49 and at 59. I didn’t try again at 69 because by then I knew that there was nothing in the retirement picture that was attractive to me.
I feel lucky to be able to continue working at this level – waking up each morning insanely motivated to attempt to cram 12 hours of work into 6, and then waking up the next morning with the same beautifully unreasonable ambition.
I feel lucky to be able to spend the better part of my working time with men and women who are, for the most part, 20 to 30 years younger than I am. I love the challenge of keeping up with them in terms of sheer output. And although I can feel that this is a race I will one day have to cede, I am happy to know that I can – at my age (and because of my age) – stimulate their thinking and inspire them to meet or exceed my output when they reach my age.
I feel lucky to be able to spend most of a week once a year in Japan speaking to several thousand conference and digital attendees – sober, intelligent, middle-aged and older Japanese men and women who, notwithstanding the language barrier, have spent thousands of dollars and come hundreds of miles to hear what I have to say about the economy, investing, and my particular philosophy of building wealth and living a rich life.
I felt lucky the night before last, after my interview with Professor Fuji on his popular podcast, to be invited by him to spend an evening with our mutual teams at a geisha house, one of only two or three authentic geisha houses in Tokyo. I went to a geisha house in Kyoto the last time I was in Japan, but it was nothing like what I experienced here. Some of the rituals – the personal service, the music, the conversations, and the dancing – were similar. But the total geisha experience, thanks to Professor Fuji, was on an entirely different, entirely more exotic, and thoroughly more exciting level.
I remember sitting there between two ethereal beauties, being catered to like I had never been catered to before and thinking, “This is what being a sheik feels like. Better yet – this is how 007 would be treated if he were in Tokyo on a mission!”
So not a bad work week for a man who, had I accepted my culture’s view of my expiration date, would have been back in the States, puttering around the golf course or sitting home watching TV.
Here I am in the recording studio of Professor Fuji…
And here I am trying to flip him, but he knows his Jiu Jitsu and has already lowered his center of gravity (which is why he’s smiling!)…
Doug Casey on the Fed’s Quiet War Against the Middle Class
Doug Casey is one of my favorite people. Long before it became a common discussion, he was on national TV explaining the value of free markets and the danger of large government and government debt.
The Doug I know is more than just a bestselling author and an early pioneer in free market economics. He’s also a man who has led a life of action, and even adventure. He’s done business all over the globe with industry leaders, traveling salesmen, bounty hunters, and diamond traders. He’s met with heads of state, negotiated international deals, and publicly debated powerful, deep-state-embedded politicians.
All that, and he has the charm to win favor with youngsters.
Years ago, I was sitting in a lounge in an airport in Denver (I think) with my family and Doug came in. I invited him to sit with us, hoping he wouldn’t say anything that would freak out K or the kids. He talked freely for half an hour. And when he left, my Number Three Son, who was about 12 years old at the time, said, “Dad. That guy is one of your coolest friends.”
In the following excerpt from an interview by International Man, Doug talks about the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and his view of the current administration and the future of the US economy. (I’ve done some editing on this to emphasize what I feel were Doug’s most important points.)
International Man: The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates. What does it signal about the current state of the US economy?
Doug Casey: Let me introduce the subject with a joke.
Einstein dies and goes to heaven. St. Peter greets him effusively and says, “Unfortunately, Mr. Einstein, because we’re a centrally planned economy – for obvious reasons – we have a temporary housing shortage, and have to put you up with three roommates for a while.”
Einstein goes to his new apartment, and the first guy comes up to him and says, “Mr. Einstein, I have an IQ of 130, and I’d love to get to know you better.” Einstein says, “Great. After lunch, let’s bounce around a few concepts of astrophysics that have been on my mind.”
The second guy comes up and says, “Mr. Einstein, I’m not as smart as that first guy. I’ve only got an IQ of 100, but I still want to get to know you better.” Einstein says, “Great. Let me put away my grip, and let’s play a game of chess.”
The third guy comes up and says, “Mr. Einstein, I’m not as smart as those other guys. I’ve only got an IQ of 70, but I still want to get to know you.” Einstein says, “So, where do you think interest rates are headed?”
International Man: That’s funny!
Doug Casey: It also says a lot about guessing the direction of interest rates, which matters. Because they’re actually the most important single indicator in an economy.
International Man: How so?
Doug Casey: Interest rates are the price of capital, the lifeblood of an economy. In terms of their importance to the economy, you can think of them as blood pressure and pulse readings for measuring the health of humans. When a central bank lowers rates, it’s like giving a patient amphetamines. When interest rates are lowered, it’s like giving the patient barbiturates.
Central bankers are like doctors who are given the challenge of healing a sick patient and then keeping him healthy. But the only medical treatments they can use are amphetamines and barbituates.
I understand why Trump wants lower interest rates. They encourage people to buy things, consume, and borrow money. That increases consumption, business earnings, and employment. But this, like the artificial high you get from amphetamines, is only temporary because ultimately it discourages saving, and without saving, there’s no capital. The immediate and direct consequences of lowering rates might be an artificial boom. But the indirect and delayed consequences are a very real bust.
Interest rates should not be dictated by politicians and bureaucrats. Only free and dynamic conversations between borrowers and lenders can determine the “correct” level of rates.
International Man: Traditionally, the Fed has two mandates: price stability and maximum employment. Lately, Stephen Miran – a Trump-appointed Fed governor – has argued for a “third mandate”: moderating long-term interest rates. What do you make of that?
Doug Casey: Not only shouldn’t the Federal Reserve have mandates – it should be abolished. Unfortunately, it’s become so intertwined with the economy that people have come to believe it’s an essential component of the cosmic firmament. The Fed determines the amount of money and credit, its cost, and the way the banks operate. It finances the government’s debt, which is especially important since the government is bankrupt. But I hate talking about what “should” happen; “should” only happens in a dream world.
Initially, the Fed only had one mandate: price stability. That alone was a ridiculous goal. Then, maximum employment became the Fed’s second mandate – also impossible and absurd. And now they’ve taken on a job that may be even more ridiculous: controlling long-term interest rates.
Since the Fed was created, the dollar has lost over 95% of its value. Forget about price stability; the general price level has gone up by a factor of over 20, which is a total and abject failure. The Fed is, by necessity, an institution committed to the printing of money, which means that it is also an engine of inflation….
These people don’t have a clue about economics or the way the world works. And if Trump knows any better, he’s not acting on it. He wants to pack the Fed with puppets who will print money, vainly trying to keep interest rates below the rate of currency debasement. The result will be a catastrophe….
International Man: For the average American – someone with a mortgage, some savings, maybe a 401(k) – how do these potential shifts in Fed policy translate into real-life consequences?
Doug Casey: A lower standard of living, class warfare, and eventually chaos….
If you can get a 30-year 6% mortgage now, I’d do it. Long-term rates are headed up, and the dollars you owe will depreciate.
But in the kind of chaos that’s being created in the world today, on many fronts, your best investment is in yourself.
It’s critical that you and your family have as many skills and abilities as possible. No matter how things sort out, you want to be in a position to survive and prosper. I urge you to get my new book, The Preparation. It covers a host of things that most people haven’t even considered. Sorry for the commercial, but I think it’s important.
American Baseball, Japanese Twist
This Is What Happens When Japanese Culture Takes On American Baseball
AV, a friend and colleague of mine at Rancho Santana and a self-proclaimed “super fan” of Japanese superstar pitcher Shohei Ohtani, sent me the following article:
Shohei Ohtani: If He Had Been Born in the United States, They Would Have Ruined His Future”
In a town of 120,000 people, surrounded by rice fields and steel factories, a boy named Shohei Ohtani threw baseballs with his father after work, while everyone else watched cartoons. What began as a pastime in Iwate Prefecture became a prophecy: an athlete destined not just to dominate the game, but to reinvent it. What looked like a kid with a glove ended up being a storm that shook the foundations of modern baseball.
From a young age, Ohtani was a genetic and emotional anomaly. His father, Toru, a former amateur baseball player, and his mother, Kayoko, a former national badminton athlete, instilled in him an obsession with excellence. In high school, he was already throwing at 100 mph, but he didn’t brag: He measured, recorded, analyzed. In Japan, he learned that perfection is not pursued for applause, but for respect. There, young Shohei forged his mind of steel.
And here’s the crucial point: If Ohtani had been born in the United States, he would never have become Ohtani.
The American development system would have turned him into a product, not a person. Scouts would have classified him as a pitcher or slugger and forced him to choose. In the United States, baseball is run like a factory: talent packaged, tasks assigned, dreams trimmed.
In contrast, Japan gave him freedom, not labels. It allowed him to explore, fail, learn, and become the impossible player that every other system would have killed before he was born.
When he arrived in the Major Leagues with the Los Angeles Angels, the world discovered the myth was real. In Anaheim, he won his first MVP awards, challenged metrics and reporters, and forced statisticians to invent new categories to describe him. He threw 100 miles per hour and the next day hit two home runs.
It was as if Babe Ruth had been reincarnated with a Japanese chip. And when it seemed he couldn’t grow any more, he arrived at the Dodgers… and turned his talent into a global enterprise. His $700 million contract, with deferred payments and a commercial machinery connecting Asia and America, was not just a sports move: It was a business merger between human talent and financial engineering. In a year, Ohtani generated more money than he cost. In a single uniform, the Dodgers found their gold mine and baseball found its new economic model. But the human body is not a stock.
Surgeries, demands, and media pressure are ticking time bombs. And the real risk lies in deification: When an entire sport depends on one man, the myth can become a prison. If Ohtani gets injured, all of baseball trembles. It’s the paradox of genius: What elevates the game also makes it fragile.
Even so, no one in history has had such a colossal projection. If he maintains his health and pace, Shohei Ohtani could monopolize the MVP for the next decade. No one else has the talent, duality, or cultural impact to compete with him. If he succeeds, he will shatter all existing records for the award and redefine what it means to be “the best player in the world.”
Ohtani didn’t just change baseball: He rewrote it in two languages. And if time proves him right, we won’t be seeing the new Babe Ruth… but the first Ohtani. Because while others aspire to glory, he is managing it for the long term.
The World of Geisha: History, Training, and Modern Life
A Bit of Geisha History Curated by Nigel (My Very Bright AI English Butler)
Origins and Evolution
* Male entertainers called taikomochi or hōkan emerged in Japan around the 13th century as attendants to feudal lords. They performed as jesters, musicians, and storytellers.
* In the 1750s, females began to appear with the men as dancers and musicians.
* By the 1800s, women had largely taken over the profession, which led to gradual changes and adaptations that became the modern geisha tradition.
Training and Profession
* Geisha are much more than pretty waitresses in face paint and kimonos. They are rigorously trained tea ceremony performers, traditional dancers and musicians, and highly skilled conversationalists.
* Their role is not merely to entertain guests with traditional music and dance, but to provide an experience of intelligent and irresistible pampering that one can get nowhere else in the world.
* The training to become a geisha usually begins at a young age, lasts for years, and is taught by accomplished, older geisha in the confines of an okiya (geisha house).
Decline and Modern Status
* The number of working geisha reached a high of around 80,000 in the 1920s.
* After Japan’s loss in World War II, the entire industry of culture and entertainment diminished considerably in Japan, and that included the number of geisha establishments and professional geisha. Today, fewer than 2,000 geisha remain, concentrated in cities like Tokyo and Kyoto.
* Kyoto remains the best-known center for geisha culture, with specific districts like Gion and Pontocho having some of the best schools and houses. But Tokyo has several that are as good as Kyoto’s best.
Otherworldly Grace: A Geisha Performance
It’s quite possible that the tequila I had with Professor Fuji before dinner had something to do with my mood. Or it could have been the dozen small glasses of beer that I enjoyed with my meal. But the dancing we saw that night at the geisha house in Tokyo was as brilliant as it was other-worldly.
Here’s an example of what I’m talking about.